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On the general topic of aliens

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I think the way most people frame it as,

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we officially know nothing,

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we have no information

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and therefore serious work

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just can't be done.

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I think that's false,

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about both of these topics

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both UAPs and aliens.

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So, in our "Grabby Aliens"  work

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we're claiming that

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We know quite a bit about the

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distribution of aliens in space-time, and

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you might say, "But we've never seen one,

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so how could we know anything?"

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And the point is, we do see other data

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that's relevant, and we can put that

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together cleverly to

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learn a lot about aliens.

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There are these historical

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examples where it switched over.

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Some sort of evidence was enough to make

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people take it out of the

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superstition-crazy realm.

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So what would it take

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to do that with UAPs?

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Basically, they're saying, "This is so

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crazy unlikely." If we say, "Why?"

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because cosmologists have told us so, and

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I say, "No, they haven't."

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That's where I'm trying to go and say,

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"Look, from what we know about cosmology,

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this is not crazy unlikely.

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It might be unlikely, but it's not crazy

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unlikely. That's the key difference.

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Can we get people to

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accept it's not crazy unlikely?"

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The UAP is a pioneer in the field of

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AI-driven comparative and qualitative

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analysis, and was established with the

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primary goal of uncovering the hidden

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value left behind in complex data sets.

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To find valuable insights that can help

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drive growth, formulate competitive

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strategy, and to identify key patterns in

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targeted demographics, head

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to their site to learn more.

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coeus.institute

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So what originally brought you to my

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attention was the Grabby Aliens paper

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that you did. That was my first exposure

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to you on Lex Friedman.

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I loved how you were able to integrate

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UAP into the model itself to work through

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some assumptions. I'll let you speak to

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that. Why do you think that we don't see

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more academics

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engaging in this type of work?

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Because it seems like there's a lot to

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really unfold there.

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I'm not the first person to notice

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there's a taboo here. It's pretty strong.

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It's remarkably strong and even

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puzzlingly strong. It's worth wondering

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exactly why. But it's pretty clear.

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So I started out in physics a long time

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ago, and physicists are just really

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strongly of the opinion that there's like

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a certain kind of pseudoscience that they

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should just dump all over. And then this

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has been classified in that category of

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pseudoscience. And elites, especially in

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our world, they're eager to show that

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they're different from ordinary people

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and they sort of share the opinions of

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elites and not the opinions

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of foolish ordinary people.

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And this is one of

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those things on the list.

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Interesting.

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So what have you received any any

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kickback? And I know you haven't just

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jumped onto the scene. You've been

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writing papers about this to some degree

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since the 90s. Is that correct?

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About aliens. Yeah. Correct. Yeah.

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Although there's much less about the

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taboo about aliens than about UAPs.

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Well, let's talk about that difference.

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So UAP, from my perspective, now the

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terminology is unidentified anomalous

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phenomenon. So we're classifying that as

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a domain agnostic observation that

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doesn't fit our expectations. Right.

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Be loose. And we're we're now starting to

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track that and gather numbers about that

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so we can we can learn more about that.

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So it's a it's a

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practical issue that we're seeing.

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But then we separate that and we say,

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let's look out into the universe as if

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we're separate from it. And we say, do we

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see anything out there?

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I presumably within our light cone, but

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we don't. And that's that's part of the

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confusion. I think that people have in

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this because we're potentially there's

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the opportunity for something to be in

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our backyard that we don't see anywhere

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else in the universe.

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Can you maybe perhaps describe how you've

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integrated those two categories of

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anomalous activities here, aliens as in

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the wider universe and what perhaps is in

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our sky that we can't identify?

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I realize that's a big question. So the

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general topic of aliens, I think the way

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most people frame it as we officially

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know nothing. So if you're going to talk

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about it, we're just

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going fun speculation.

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And in fun speculation, you can make a

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movie and you can you know, you can play

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with it. And that's OK as long as you're

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in fun speculation mode.

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But the official story is we know

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nothing. We have no information. And

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therefore, serious

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work just can't be done.

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I think that's false in essence about

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both of these topics,

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both UAPs and aliens.

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So in our grabby aliens work, we're

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claiming that we know quite a bit about

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the distribution of aliens in space time.

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And you might say, but we've never seen

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one. So how could we know anything? And

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the point is, well, we do see other data

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that's relevant and we can put that

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together cleverly to

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learn a lot about aliens.

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You think what? So I like the analogy of

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long ago in ancient Greece, they managed

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to figure out how far away the sun was.

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And you might think, how could you

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possibly look up into the sky and figure

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out how far away the sun is?

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They had this clever thing about the

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shadow length at one latitude versus

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another latitude on the

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peak noon on those days.

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And they could use that in the distance

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to these took places to figure out how

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far away the sun was.

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I'd say similarly, we actually have some

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data that we can use to figure out the

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distribution of some

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kinds of aliens in space time.

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You just have to be clever about it. So

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we have a three parameter model and each

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of those parameters is fit

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to concrete data we have.

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And so the story is then we know this

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model roughly. It's a stochastic model of

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where aliens are in space time.

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And we say we kind of have to believe it

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because of another key data, which is

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that we are early in the

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history of the universe.

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And so the date on the clock is a key

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piece of data. And it tells you there are

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aliens out there right now.

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And using these other pieces of data, we

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can get the distribution in space time.

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So I know when you're hearing this,

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you're going, that can't be right.

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But it's being as clever as those ancient

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Greeks did to figure out how far away the

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sun is from just a few pieces of infamy

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you couldn't figure.

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And we can do the same thing with aliens.

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So the three pieces of data we have are

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the date on the clock that is now 14

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million years since the

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beginning of the universe.

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There's the piece of data that at the

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moment we don't see

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anything in the sky. That's data.

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And the third piece of data is when we

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look at the history of life on Earth, we

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can see certain key events

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happened at certain dates.

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And that gives us a key clue to basically

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how many hard steps life had to go

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through to get to where we are.

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And that's another key parameter. So with

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those three parameters, each one of them

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tells us about one of the three

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parameters in this three parameter model.

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And that tells us where

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aliens are in space time.

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Wow, that is very clever. Let's talk

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about some of the assumptions in there.

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One of the assumptions, I believe, is

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that some of those hard steps may have

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had to occur off of Earth.

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Is that correct? Using

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a panspermia concept?

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So in our simple grabby aliens model, we

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make the simplest assumption that life on

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Earth started on Earth and had no

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ancestors before that.

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And in that simplest model, we are an

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independent origin from aliens. And

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basically, advanced life like us would

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appear roughly once per million galaxies.

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And then it would spread out at near half

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the speed of light, roughly. And then we

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might meet it in roughly a billion years

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if we were to expand to be like that.

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So it's really rare. Under that simplest

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model, there's no way

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there's any aliens near here.

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The chance that anyone would have

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originated that close is crazy low

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because they appear

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once per million galaxies.

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So the simplest model just doesn't let

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aliens be anywhere near. But we can

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modify that model in a

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plausible way to make a correlation.

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So aliens could be siblings. That is, we

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could have had a common origin, a

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previous planet before Earth, that there

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was plenty of time for that.

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So we are now at 14 billion years. Our

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planet started about four

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and a half billion years ago.

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That leaves nine and a half billion years

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at the beginning of the universe for

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other stuff to happen.

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The peak of when stars were forming was

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about four billion

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years after the origin.

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So if a star had formed then and a planet

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around it, it would have had, you know,

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another six billion years when life could

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have been evolving on it.

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And then life from that original Eden

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could have moved via a rock that smashed,

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you know, some rock smashed into the

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planet, knocks off a

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rock that has lifed on it.

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It drifts and it could have seeded the

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stellar nursery where Earth was formed.

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So stars are formed in nurseries with

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roughly a thousand stars all formed

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together in the same place in time,

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really close to each other with lots of

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rocks flying back and forth.

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And when we say this life, we're talking

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about microbial life.

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Right. Yeah, something very simple. But

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life could have started.

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But the most complex, perhaps at this

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point in history in this local group.

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So life had to go from really simple at

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the beginning all the way to really

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complicated where we are.

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And the plausibly that was just really

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hard. There were a lot of hard things

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that had to happen to make that happen.

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So in order for that to happen in the

274
00:10:07,041 --> 00:10:09,166
last four billion years of our life on

275
00:10:09,166 --> 00:10:10,291
Earth, life on Earth

276
00:10:10,291 --> 00:10:11,583
had to get really lucky.

277
00:10:12,541 --> 00:10:14,125
A bunch of things that were really hard

278
00:10:14,125 --> 00:10:17,041
happened to happen especially fast.

279
00:10:17,041 --> 00:10:19,500
And so an analogy is cancer in the human

280
00:10:19,500 --> 00:10:21,500
body. So basically in your body, there

281
00:10:21,500 --> 00:10:23,291
are trillions of cells.

282
00:10:23,291 --> 00:10:24,958
And in order for you to get cancer, one

283
00:10:24,958 --> 00:10:28,625
of those cells has to have six mutations.

284
00:10:28,625 --> 00:10:30,333
And it's really unlikely for any one cell

285
00:10:30,333 --> 00:10:32,250
to even have one mutation.

286
00:10:32,250 --> 00:10:34,000
And so it's especially unlikely for a

287
00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:35,333
cell to have six mutations.

288
00:10:35,333 --> 00:10:37,166
But by the end of your life, you have a

289
00:10:37,166 --> 00:10:38,791
40 percent chance of having cancer

290
00:10:38,791 --> 00:10:39,916
somewhere in your body.

291
00:10:40,208 --> 00:10:42,291
So one of those cells had all six

292
00:10:42,291 --> 00:10:43,833
mutations. It got really lucky, that one

293
00:10:43,833 --> 00:10:45,833
cell, in the sense of all those things

294
00:10:45,833 --> 00:10:47,416
happening in that one cell.

295
00:10:47,416 --> 00:10:49,875
So the analogy is with Earth is there's

296
00:10:49,875 --> 00:10:52,500
all these planets, and maybe many of them

297
00:10:52,500 --> 00:10:53,375
start out at the

298
00:10:53,375 --> 00:10:56,458
beginning of this life path.

299
00:10:56,458 --> 00:10:58,250
But it's really hard to go down each

300
00:10:58,250 --> 00:10:59,208
step. And most of them

301
00:10:59,208 --> 00:11:00,583
never get past the first step.

302
00:11:00,583 --> 00:11:01,916
They never even get to the first step.

303
00:11:02,375 --> 00:11:05,541
But some lucky planets go through all of

304
00:11:05,541 --> 00:11:08,083
these mutations and finally get to a

305
00:11:08,083 --> 00:11:10,166
place where we are before the deadline

306
00:11:10,166 --> 00:11:11,000
where that planet no

307
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:12,666
longer supports life.

308
00:11:12,666 --> 00:11:15,500
And the idea is Earth was really lucky.

309
00:11:15,500 --> 00:11:17,583
And that's why we're so rare.

310
00:11:17,583 --> 00:11:21,625
But if there was a longer period of time

311
00:11:21,625 --> 00:11:24,208
when life started on some Eden, then it

312
00:11:24,208 --> 00:11:25,541
would have had a lot more time to go

313
00:11:25,541 --> 00:11:27,583
through all those steps and makes that

314
00:11:27,583 --> 00:11:28,916
whole process a lot more likely.

315
00:11:29,500 --> 00:11:32,083
And so life could have gone halfway down

316
00:11:32,083 --> 00:11:35,083
the path to a much more complicated than

317
00:11:35,083 --> 00:11:36,166
the very basic life.

318
00:11:36,166 --> 00:11:38,250
And then some rock knocked it off, and

319
00:11:38,250 --> 00:11:40,250
then it seeded our stellar nursery with

320
00:11:40,250 --> 00:11:41,958
some intermediate complexity life.

321
00:11:41,958 --> 00:11:44,333
And then that continued to evolve for the

322
00:11:44,333 --> 00:11:45,458
last four billion years

323
00:11:45,458 --> 00:11:47,041
to get to where we are.

324
00:11:47,041 --> 00:11:48,666
And seeding that stellar nursery would

325
00:11:48,666 --> 00:11:50,750
have seeded basically all of those stars

326
00:11:50,750 --> 00:11:52,833
with life at that level of complexity.

327
00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,958
And then all the stars drifted apart

328
00:11:55,958 --> 00:11:57,166
quickly, and they formed

329
00:11:57,166 --> 00:11:58,916
a ring around the galaxy.

330
00:11:58,916 --> 00:12:00,125
And we can actually see them out there

331
00:12:00,125 --> 00:12:01,458
because they have exactly the same

332
00:12:01,458 --> 00:12:03,291
chemical composition as our star.

333
00:12:03,291 --> 00:12:04,916
Our star, because it came from the same

334
00:12:04,916 --> 00:12:06,125
nurseries, we can actually

335
00:12:06,125 --> 00:12:08,166
identify many of them out there.

336
00:12:08,166 --> 00:12:10,750
And the idea is one of those other stars

337
00:12:10,750 --> 00:12:13,708
had a planet which life evolved like on

338
00:12:13,708 --> 00:12:16,833
Earth, but it got to our level first.

339
00:12:18,500 --> 00:12:20,583
And they had an advanced civilization

340
00:12:20,583 --> 00:12:23,041
there, and then they came here.

341
00:12:23,041 --> 00:12:25,000
And that's how there could be aliens

342
00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:26,500
here, but not anywhere else

343
00:12:26,500 --> 00:12:28,333
for the next million galaxies.

344
00:12:28,333 --> 00:12:29,750
All right. There's a local cluster of

345
00:12:29,750 --> 00:12:30,708
life that popped up.

346
00:12:30,708 --> 00:12:31,708
Right, exactly.

347
00:12:31,708 --> 00:12:32,958
Well, let's talk a little

348
00:12:32,958 --> 00:12:36,625
bit about that stellar nursery.

349
00:12:36,625 --> 00:12:38,416
This is how you calculate

350
00:12:38,416 --> 00:12:39,916
your priors for this, correct?

351
00:12:39,916 --> 00:12:42,083
And would you mind defining that, how you

352
00:12:42,083 --> 00:12:43,958
kind of calculate a probability based off

353
00:12:43,958 --> 00:12:44,916
of what you just said?

354
00:12:45,416 --> 00:12:48,375
So the key idea for UAPs

355
00:12:48,375 --> 00:12:50,875
would be, what the hell?

356
00:12:50,875 --> 00:12:52,208
What are these things?

357
00:12:52,208 --> 00:12:53,500
We have four major

358
00:12:53,500 --> 00:12:54,958
categories of theories.

359
00:12:54,958 --> 00:12:56,291
You know, they could be just

360
00:12:56,291 --> 00:12:57,458
mistakes and hallucinations.

361
00:12:57,458 --> 00:12:59,375
They could be lies and hoaxes.

362
00:12:59,375 --> 00:13:01,833
They could be some hidden Earth

363
00:13:01,833 --> 00:13:03,416
organization with amazing powers, or it

364
00:13:03,416 --> 00:13:05,041
could be some alien

365
00:13:05,041 --> 00:13:06,916
organization with amazing powers.

366
00:13:06,916 --> 00:13:09,750
So in order to guess the relative chances

367
00:13:09,750 --> 00:13:12,000
of those hypotheses, we need to have two

368
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:12,916
things for each hypothesis.

369
00:13:14,083 --> 00:13:16,500
One is what's called a likelihood, the

370
00:13:16,500 --> 00:13:18,708
chance that the evidence we see would

371
00:13:18,708 --> 00:13:21,000
happen if that were the truth.

372
00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:22,708
And another thing we need is a prior.

373
00:13:22,708 --> 00:13:24,458
What's the chance that that sort of thing

374
00:13:24,458 --> 00:13:27,041
would happen, ignoring the evidence?

375
00:13:27,041 --> 00:13:29,166
And if we can multiply those two things

376
00:13:29,166 --> 00:13:29,958
together, normalize

377
00:13:29,958 --> 00:13:30,916
over these four options,

378
00:13:30,916 --> 00:13:33,500
and then that's how we get our posterior,

379
00:13:33,500 --> 00:13:34,375
i.e., the chance that

380
00:13:34,375 --> 00:13:34,916
each hypothesis is true.

381
00:13:35,833 --> 00:13:39,291
So because I did this grabby-aliens work,

382
00:13:39,291 --> 00:13:42,000
I decided I'm kind of an expert on the

383
00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:43,958
prior for aliens hypothesis.

384
00:13:43,958 --> 00:13:46,000
I got to say, you know, what's the a

385
00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:49,416
priori chance that this would be true?

386
00:13:49,416 --> 00:13:51,583
And in order to do that, what I need to

387
00:13:51,583 --> 00:13:54,166
do is come up with the most plausible

388
00:13:54,166 --> 00:13:55,833
hypothesis that could be consistent with

389
00:13:55,833 --> 00:13:58,375
what we know about the UFO phenomena and

390
00:13:58,375 --> 00:13:58,916
the rest of the universe.

391
00:13:59,916 --> 00:14:02,875
And then for each component of the

392
00:14:02,875 --> 00:14:06,625
hypothesis, penalize it for how specific,

393
00:14:06,625 --> 00:14:09,000
unusual an assumption I'm making in order

394
00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:11,166
to make the story work.

395
00:14:11,166 --> 00:14:13,708
So I've come up with what I think is the

396
00:14:13,708 --> 00:14:17,625
best story I can for if UFOs were aliens,

397
00:14:17,625 --> 00:14:19,250
how that could make any sense.

398
00:14:19,250 --> 00:14:20,916
And it's got several components.

399
00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,541
And when I put those components together,

400
00:14:23,541 --> 00:14:25,541
I come up with a prior of, say, roughly

401
00:14:25,541 --> 00:14:27,291
one in a thousand, one in ten or a

402
00:14:27,291 --> 00:14:29,791
hundred thousand in that range.

403
00:14:29,791 --> 00:14:32,333
And the important point is that's high

404
00:14:32,333 --> 00:14:33,375
enough that you really

405
00:14:33,375 --> 00:14:34,791
got to look at the evidence.

406
00:14:34,791 --> 00:14:35,625
That's the key point.

407
00:14:35,625 --> 00:14:39,000
So in a murder trial, you're asked to

408
00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,875
believe that A, murdered B, okay?

409
00:14:41,875 --> 00:14:43,916
The prior probability on that is

410
00:14:43,916 --> 00:14:44,916
basically one in a million.

411
00:14:44,916 --> 00:14:46,541
That is, only one in a thousand people

412
00:14:46,541 --> 00:14:48,291
get killed, and they probably have a

413
00:14:48,291 --> 00:14:49,208
thousand people nearby

414
00:14:49,208 --> 00:14:49,916
who might have done it.

415
00:14:50,500 --> 00:14:52,833
And so to believe that A killed B, you're

416
00:14:52,833 --> 00:14:54,166
being asked to overcome a

417
00:14:54,166 --> 00:14:55,416
prior of one in a million.

418
00:14:55,416 --> 00:14:56,625
But often you can do that.

419
00:14:56,625 --> 00:14:58,416
Concrete evidence in a murder trial will

420
00:14:58,416 --> 00:15:01,166
convince you that, yeah, A killed B.

421
00:15:01,166 --> 00:15:03,458
And so that's why you don't

422
00:15:03,458 --> 00:15:04,458
dismiss a murder accusation.

423
00:15:04,458 --> 00:15:05,291
You don't just say

424
00:15:05,291 --> 00:15:06,250
murder's crazy unlikely.

425
00:15:06,250 --> 00:15:07,166
That couldn't have happened.

426
00:15:07,166 --> 00:15:08,708
Just ignore it, right?

427
00:15:08,708 --> 00:15:11,458
And so—but many people for the UFOs as

428
00:15:11,458 --> 00:15:14,000
aliens hypothesis, they

429
00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,083
basically say, that's so crazy.

430
00:15:16,083 --> 00:15:16,791
I don't even have to

431
00:15:16,791 --> 00:15:17,291
look at this evidence.

432
00:15:17,291 --> 00:15:19,166
That's so unlikely that it's

433
00:15:19,166 --> 00:15:20,208
just so neat to look at it.

434
00:15:20,208 --> 00:15:23,375
No unlikely. Let's not even quantify it.

435
00:15:23,375 --> 00:15:24,083
Right.

436
00:15:24,083 --> 00:15:25,875
Now, there are some kinds of hypothesis

437
00:15:25,875 --> 00:15:27,333
you might think are so unlikely that

438
00:15:27,333 --> 00:15:28,125
you're just not even

439
00:15:28,125 --> 00:15:29,375
going to consider them.

440
00:15:29,375 --> 00:15:31,083
But I'd say in this

441
00:15:31,083 --> 00:15:33,250
case, isn't one of them.

442
00:15:33,250 --> 00:15:34,625
This is the sort of thing you'll have to

443
00:15:34,625 --> 00:15:35,541
look at the evidence for.

444
00:15:35,541 --> 00:15:36,708
That would be the main point.

445
00:15:36,708 --> 00:15:38,583
But that's my contribution to this whole

446
00:15:38,583 --> 00:15:42,333
issue, is to say, first of all, the prior

447
00:15:42,333 --> 00:15:43,916
likelihood is high enough that you got to look at the evidence.

448
00:15:44,375 --> 00:15:46,083
You can't just dismiss it on the basis of

449
00:15:46,083 --> 00:15:47,541
that seems crazy unlikely.

450
00:15:47,541 --> 00:15:49,333
And then furthermore, well, what

451
00:15:49,333 --> 00:15:51,000
specifically is the most likely

452
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:52,500
hypothesis that could make sense of this?

453
00:15:52,500 --> 00:15:54,000
Because that's the sort of thing you

454
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:55,916
should kind of believe if you end up

455
00:15:55,916 --> 00:15:58,791
believing that you're a piece of aliens.

456
00:15:58,791 --> 00:16:00,500
Well, before we talk about some of that

457
00:16:00,500 --> 00:16:04,125
evidence, let me just ask you with what

458
00:16:04,125 --> 00:16:05,625
you just said about stellar nurseries and

459
00:16:05,625 --> 00:16:06,916
our ability to detect

460
00:16:06,916 --> 00:16:07,916
them and identify them.

461
00:16:09,083 --> 00:16:12,208
One, is there a way to perhaps use that

462
00:16:12,208 --> 00:16:14,125
proactively, that information, that

463
00:16:14,125 --> 00:16:16,375
knowledge to further

464
00:16:16,375 --> 00:16:19,041
refine that calculation?

465
00:16:19,041 --> 00:16:21,083
And two, would that perhaps be useful

466
00:16:21,083 --> 00:16:22,833
that what you just stated that

467
00:16:22,833 --> 00:16:24,208
observation would that be useful and

468
00:16:24,208 --> 00:16:27,500
perhaps for SETI or for James Webb

469
00:16:27,500 --> 00:16:31,250
Telescope as a target list of potential

470
00:16:31,250 --> 00:16:32,916
solar systems for further observation?

471
00:16:33,375 --> 00:16:35,250
Perhaps there are microorganisms that are

472
00:16:35,250 --> 00:16:36,750
producing gas in these atmosphere. James

473
00:16:36,750 --> 00:16:38,041
Webb might be able to detect them.

474
00:16:38,041 --> 00:16:41,166
Do you think that might be a legitimate

475
00:16:41,166 --> 00:16:43,708
path to pursue for more proactive

476
00:16:43,708 --> 00:16:46,083
observations of life?

477
00:16:46,083 --> 00:16:49,166
If Panspermia's siblings hypothesis is

478
00:16:49,166 --> 00:16:51,708
true, then in fact, there's these

479
00:16:51,708 --> 00:16:54,625
thousand other stars out there where

480
00:16:54,625 --> 00:16:56,416
planets around them plausibly will

481
00:16:56,416 --> 00:16:57,916
actually be hosting life at the moment.

482
00:16:58,083 --> 00:16:59,708
They are a good candidate for looking

483
00:16:59,708 --> 00:17:01,458
through telescopes to see

484
00:17:01,458 --> 00:17:03,583
if life is at those planets.

485
00:17:03,583 --> 00:17:05,125
And, you know, standard signature is to

486
00:17:05,125 --> 00:17:07,208
look in their atmosphere and see, say, do

487
00:17:07,208 --> 00:17:09,125
they have a lot of free oxygen, because

488
00:17:09,125 --> 00:17:10,416
that's a signature in our

489
00:17:10,416 --> 00:17:12,625
atmosphere that there's life here.

490
00:17:12,625 --> 00:17:14,541
The problem is, at the moment, say, our

491
00:17:14,541 --> 00:17:17,833
best telescopes can see some kinds of,

492
00:17:17,833 --> 00:17:20,500
you know, gases in atmospheres relatively

493
00:17:20,500 --> 00:17:22,958
close, maybe, you know, a

494
00:17:22,958 --> 00:17:24,791
10 or 100 light years away.

495
00:17:25,500 --> 00:17:27,666
These thousand planets are basically, you

496
00:17:27,666 --> 00:17:30,500
know, five or 10,000 light years away

497
00:17:30,500 --> 00:17:34,041
because they're spread in a circle around

498
00:17:34,041 --> 00:17:36,083
the center of the galaxy.

499
00:17:36,083 --> 00:17:37,500
Oh, that's right. They've been taking

500
00:17:37,500 --> 00:17:38,833
four billion years to

501
00:17:38,833 --> 00:17:40,416
spread out. It's interesting.

502
00:17:40,416 --> 00:17:42,000
So, yeah, they're basically a ring around

503
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:43,833
the galaxy. Right. And so

504
00:17:43,833 --> 00:17:45,500
some of that ring is close.

505
00:17:45,500 --> 00:17:47,000
And so there's probably something that's

506
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:48,125
the closest one. And we

507
00:17:48,125 --> 00:17:48,916
should try to look at that.

508
00:17:50,083 --> 00:17:52,875
But that wouldn't be clear evidence

509
00:17:52,875 --> 00:17:55,583
because maybe only a third or a tenth of

510
00:17:55,583 --> 00:17:56,500
them have been seated

511
00:17:56,500 --> 00:17:57,666
with life or something.

512
00:17:57,666 --> 00:17:59,500
So maybe a particular star wouldn't

513
00:17:59,500 --> 00:18:01,000
happen to have planets in the right place

514
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,083
or whatever, the right type.

515
00:18:03,083 --> 00:18:04,291
But still, yeah, it

516
00:18:04,291 --> 00:18:05,875
would be a way to check.

517
00:18:05,875 --> 00:18:08,041
Interesting. And you're not claiming that

518
00:18:08,041 --> 00:18:11,500
that ring wouldn't be the only hospitable

519
00:18:11,500 --> 00:18:13,625
place in our galaxy, but only hospitable

520
00:18:13,625 --> 00:18:16,333
for potentially life that would be

521
00:18:16,333 --> 00:18:16,916
immediately

522
00:18:16,916 --> 00:18:17,916
recognizable as congruent to us.

523
00:18:18,250 --> 00:18:20,666
Well, it's just the place that it would

524
00:18:20,666 --> 00:18:22,333
be if we had a common origin.

525
00:18:22,333 --> 00:18:25,000
Got it. Right. In the stellar nursery.

526
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:26,500
Right. So any place out

527
00:18:26,500 --> 00:18:27,416
there maybe could have life.

528
00:18:27,416 --> 00:18:29,833
But again, we've got this like really low

529
00:18:29,833 --> 00:18:32,333
chance that any one thing gets very far.

530
00:18:32,333 --> 00:18:34,375
But the stellar siblings might have

531
00:18:34,375 --> 00:18:35,708
gotten a lot farther because they have

532
00:18:35,708 --> 00:18:36,583
this because we know

533
00:18:36,583 --> 00:18:38,250
that we got a long way.

534
00:18:38,250 --> 00:18:40,166
And that means our siblings have a much

535
00:18:40,166 --> 00:18:41,500
higher chance of having gone

536
00:18:41,500 --> 00:18:42,916
further than a random place.

537
00:18:43,041 --> 00:18:45,791
Have you spoke with any astronomers or

538
00:18:45,791 --> 00:18:47,625
others that work directly

539
00:18:47,625 --> 00:18:49,666
in this field that on this?

540
00:18:49,666 --> 00:18:51,958
No, but I would it's going to be a while

541
00:18:51,958 --> 00:18:53,500
before we get this sort of confirmation.

542
00:18:53,500 --> 00:18:56,000
But yeah, but I think many people already

543
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,458
kind of know that this is one of the more

544
00:18:58,458 --> 00:18:59,250
interesting places to look

545
00:18:59,250 --> 00:19:00,875
is in our stellar siblings.

546
00:19:00,875 --> 00:19:02,791
All right. Well, let's talk a little bit

547
00:19:02,791 --> 00:19:04,125
about that evidence, perhaps.

548
00:19:04,125 --> 00:19:05,625
My assumption, maybe it's not correct, is

549
00:19:05,625 --> 00:19:08,541
that there's been renewed interest from

550
00:19:08,541 --> 00:19:09,833
you or involvement in this recently.

551
00:19:10,208 --> 00:19:11,791
Or has there been a pretty consistent

552
00:19:11,791 --> 00:19:14,708
drum beat on this for you?

553
00:19:14,708 --> 00:19:19,666
So among a lot of people, the idea of

554
00:19:19,666 --> 00:19:21,625
aliens is interesting and just the

555
00:19:21,625 --> 00:19:22,500
overall history of life

556
00:19:22,500 --> 00:19:23,958
on Earth is interesting.

557
00:19:23,958 --> 00:19:28,375
And I tapped into that subject 25 years

558
00:19:28,375 --> 00:19:30,708
ago when I wrote about what

559
00:19:30,708 --> 00:19:32,666
I called the Great Filter.

560
00:19:32,666 --> 00:19:34,541
And many people thought that was an

561
00:19:34,541 --> 00:19:36,000
interesting topic, but it wasn't

562
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:37,375
something anybody thought you could get a

563
00:19:37,375 --> 00:19:37,916
job with or get funding.

564
00:19:38,500 --> 00:19:40,666
And so only a few people like me who

565
00:19:40,666 --> 00:19:42,291
would on the side play with

566
00:19:42,291 --> 00:19:43,666
it, you know, played with that.

567
00:19:43,666 --> 00:19:46,541
But over time, other people have came to

568
00:19:46,541 --> 00:19:48,625
use this phrase, the Great Filter, to

569
00:19:48,625 --> 00:19:50,583
describe the basic puzzle of why the

570
00:19:50,583 --> 00:19:53,416
universe seems so empty.

571
00:19:53,416 --> 00:19:54,375
And again, I wrote

572
00:19:54,375 --> 00:19:55,458
about that 25 years ago.

573
00:19:55,458 --> 00:19:57,500
And then I set that aside as well because

574
00:19:57,500 --> 00:19:59,541
I was trying to get a career going and

575
00:19:59,541 --> 00:20:01,958
get tenure in economics, which I did.

576
00:20:01,958 --> 00:20:02,625
And, you know, my

577
00:20:02,625 --> 00:20:03,916
colleagues said, you shouldn't.

578
00:20:04,375 --> 00:20:05,791
This is a distraction from

579
00:20:05,791 --> 00:20:07,416
your career in getting economics.

580
00:20:07,416 --> 00:20:09,208
And I took that to heart.

581
00:20:09,208 --> 00:20:11,375
But then a few years ago, I came back to

582
00:20:11,375 --> 00:20:15,291
the topic because I read a paper that was

583
00:20:15,291 --> 00:20:17,666
talking about very long-lived stars, most

584
00:20:17,666 --> 00:20:19,333
stars are much longer than ours,

585
00:20:19,333 --> 00:20:22,291
and about how this hard steps model that

586
00:20:22,291 --> 00:20:23,666
I talked about, that life has to go

587
00:20:23,666 --> 00:20:26,000
through many hard steps, has an

588
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,583
interesting implication that life would

589
00:20:28,583 --> 00:20:30,333
be much more likely to show up on these

590
00:20:30,333 --> 00:20:31,791
long-lived stars than

591
00:20:31,791 --> 00:20:32,916
our short-lived star.

592
00:20:33,541 --> 00:20:35,541
And that clued me into the fact that

593
00:20:35,541 --> 00:20:36,916
people in this area had been neglecting

594
00:20:36,916 --> 00:20:38,125
this hard steps model

595
00:20:38,125 --> 00:20:39,916
when thinking about aliens.

596
00:20:39,916 --> 00:20:41,458
And so that's why I came back to this

597
00:20:41,458 --> 00:20:44,250
topic three years ago, because I had the

598
00:20:44,250 --> 00:20:45,375
sense they were missing

599
00:20:45,375 --> 00:20:46,916
that, which they were.

600
00:20:46,916 --> 00:20:49,791
And so often, you know, the key to making

601
00:20:49,791 --> 00:20:51,875
progress is to, like, keep in your mind a

602
00:20:51,875 --> 00:20:54,041
list of interesting topics and then wait

603
00:20:54,041 --> 00:20:55,291
until you have an angle on one.

604
00:20:55,291 --> 00:20:56,500
You're just like, oh, I've got an angle

605
00:20:56,500 --> 00:20:57,916
on this one that other people don't have,

606
00:20:57,916 --> 00:20:58,791
and let's pursue that

607
00:20:58,791 --> 00:20:59,916
angle and go with it.

608
00:21:00,041 --> 00:21:02,083
But that was my angle, which was this

609
00:21:02,083 --> 00:21:04,500
hard steps model people had neglected.

610
00:21:04,500 --> 00:21:07,125
So the key interesting point is, if life

611
00:21:07,125 --> 00:21:08,666
has to go through a number of hard steps

612
00:21:08,666 --> 00:21:11,625
before it can get to our point, then the

613
00:21:11,625 --> 00:21:14,375
longer the duration of a planet to go

614
00:21:14,375 --> 00:21:16,500
through all those hard steps, the more

615
00:21:16,500 --> 00:21:19,333
likely it is to succeed, and not just

616
00:21:19,333 --> 00:21:20,916
proportionally, but to a power.

617
00:21:21,541 --> 00:21:23,875
So if there were six hard steps that life

618
00:21:23,875 --> 00:21:25,583
had to go through, which is a roughly

619
00:21:25,583 --> 00:21:28,375
best estimate for a life to get to our

620
00:21:28,375 --> 00:21:31,500
level at this point, then the chance of

621
00:21:31,500 --> 00:21:33,333
advanced life appearing would go to the

622
00:21:33,333 --> 00:21:35,083
time duration of the planet to the power

623
00:21:35,083 --> 00:21:37,458
of six, which is the same in your body.

624
00:21:37,458 --> 00:21:39,666
That is, cancer in your body needs to go

625
00:21:39,666 --> 00:21:41,083
through roughly six steps

626
00:21:41,083 --> 00:21:43,083
in order to get the mutation.

627
00:21:43,083 --> 00:21:44,833
And the chance of your getting cancer as

628
00:21:44,833 --> 00:21:46,250
a function of time is roughly the power

629
00:21:46,250 --> 00:21:47,916
of six of your lifetime.

630
00:21:48,291 --> 00:21:49,500
That is, you're almost certainly to get

631
00:21:49,500 --> 00:21:51,458
it near the end of your life, not in the

632
00:21:51,458 --> 00:21:53,708
middle or the beginning.

633
00:21:53,708 --> 00:21:56,750
So the key point now here is that

634
00:21:56,750 --> 00:21:58,958
long-lived stars should be much more

635
00:21:58,958 --> 00:22:01,083
likely to have advanced life than

636
00:22:01,083 --> 00:22:02,333
short-lived stars, and we

637
00:22:02,333 --> 00:22:03,916
are on a short-lived star.

638
00:22:04,583 --> 00:22:08,000
So our planet will run out of room for

639
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,541
life in another billion years, and

640
00:22:10,541 --> 00:22:11,541
therefore there's only, right, a

641
00:22:11,541 --> 00:22:14,541
five-billion-year window on Earth for us

642
00:22:14,541 --> 00:22:17,041
to appear, but the average star lasts for

643
00:22:17,041 --> 00:22:19,458
five trillion years, a

644
00:22:19,458 --> 00:22:19,958
thousand times longer.

645
00:22:20,625 --> 00:22:23,416
And so if the chance of life showing up

646
00:22:23,416 --> 00:22:26,000
on that should be a thousand times more

647
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,125
raised to the power of six, or ten to the

648
00:22:28,125 --> 00:22:30,250
eighteen, which makes

649
00:22:30,250 --> 00:22:32,916
us crazy early unlikely.

650
00:22:32,916 --> 00:22:35,583
That is, why would life show up on Earth,

651
00:22:35,583 --> 00:22:37,625
which is a short-lived star with a

652
00:22:37,625 --> 00:22:39,833
short-lived planet, as opposed to on one

653
00:22:39,833 --> 00:22:42,666
of these much longer-lived stars and much

654
00:22:42,666 --> 00:22:44,291
later in the history of the universe?

655
00:22:44,291 --> 00:22:45,541
Can we talk about red dwarfs?

656
00:22:45,541 --> 00:22:46,041
Yes, exactly.

657
00:22:47,041 --> 00:22:49,166
So would that be a place—so if we

658
00:22:49,166 --> 00:22:51,583
consider our stellar nursery and the

659
00:22:51,583 --> 00:22:53,583
output from that as our cousins, if you

660
00:22:53,583 --> 00:22:56,541
will, would looking at life around red

661
00:22:56,541 --> 00:22:58,875
dwarfs be more applicable to looking at

662
00:22:58,875 --> 00:23:01,708
perhaps older, more mature civilizations?

663
00:23:01,708 --> 00:23:03,791
Well, if we were later in the history of

664
00:23:03,791 --> 00:23:04,333
the universe, that's where

665
00:23:04,333 --> 00:23:06,750
we'd look, but we're now early.

666
00:23:06,750 --> 00:23:09,083
So they're all these—even the red dwarf

667
00:23:09,083 --> 00:23:10,375
stars, they have only been around for a

668
00:23:10,375 --> 00:23:11,208
few billion years, right?

669
00:23:11,208 --> 00:23:12,500
They haven't been around for trillions of

670
00:23:12,500 --> 00:23:13,041
years because the

671
00:23:13,041 --> 00:23:13,875
universe isn't that old.

672
00:23:14,416 --> 00:23:17,208
So the puzzle here is that we do a

673
00:23:17,208 --> 00:23:19,416
calculation that says, if the universe

674
00:23:19,416 --> 00:23:21,250
would sit and wait empty for advanced

675
00:23:21,250 --> 00:23:23,500
life to show up, then it should show up

676
00:23:23,500 --> 00:23:26,416
much later than now.

677
00:23:26,416 --> 00:23:29,458
And the answer to this puzzle is the

678
00:23:29,458 --> 00:23:30,916
universe would not sit and wait empty.

679
00:23:32,291 --> 00:23:35,083
Right now, the universe is filling up.

680
00:23:35,083 --> 00:23:37,833
Aliens are right now out there taking the

681
00:23:37,833 --> 00:23:40,291
universe, reshaping it, making it the way

682
00:23:40,291 --> 00:23:42,958
they want, and they're expanding, and in

683
00:23:42,958 --> 00:23:43,750
roughly a billion years

684
00:23:43,750 --> 00:23:45,583
or so, it'll all be taken.

685
00:23:45,583 --> 00:23:47,125
And there won't be any place

686
00:23:47,125 --> 00:23:48,708
for life like us to appear.

687
00:23:48,708 --> 00:23:51,000
We had to appear before that deadline,

688
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:51,958
and that's the answer

689
00:23:51,958 --> 00:23:53,708
to why we're so early.

690
00:23:53,708 --> 00:23:55,666
All advanced life has to appear before

691
00:23:55,666 --> 00:23:57,208
the deadline of when the

692
00:23:57,208 --> 00:23:57,916
universe gets filled up.

693
00:23:59,666 --> 00:24:02,416
And that's the reason why we are early,

694
00:24:02,416 --> 00:24:03,833
and that's why the reason why the data on

695
00:24:03,833 --> 00:24:04,750
the clock is telling

696
00:24:04,750 --> 00:24:07,125
you they're out there.

697
00:24:07,125 --> 00:24:09,416
But then to fill out this model, we need

698
00:24:09,416 --> 00:24:12,291
to make a full statistical model of the

699
00:24:12,291 --> 00:24:14,208
distribution of aliens in space-time.

700
00:24:14,208 --> 00:24:15,708
And so that's what we've done with the

701
00:24:15,708 --> 00:24:17,916
three-parameter model, fit to three

702
00:24:17,916 --> 00:24:20,500
pieces of data that tells us roughly

703
00:24:20,500 --> 00:24:22,875
where they are and when we'll meet them.

704
00:24:22,875 --> 00:24:25,000
Very cool. And I know you actually were

705
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:26,916
able to calculate a date. It's nothing on our calendar, but—

706
00:24:27,500 --> 00:24:29,500
What we show is there's a probability

707
00:24:29,500 --> 00:24:31,541
distribution over the date, and there's a

708
00:24:31,541 --> 00:24:33,000
small chance it could be much earlier,

709
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,625
but the middle of the distribution is

710
00:24:34,625 --> 00:24:35,875
roughly a billion years.

711
00:24:35,875 --> 00:24:37,916
It depends on some parameters, so it's a

712
00:24:37,916 --> 00:24:40,166
very rough estimate, but it's not soon.

713
00:24:40,166 --> 00:24:42,500
By chance. That would be a chance.

714
00:24:42,500 --> 00:24:44,125
Right. So there's a bunch

715
00:24:44,125 --> 00:24:45,916
of random variables in here.

716
00:24:45,916 --> 00:24:47,708
How early are we in the distribution of

717
00:24:47,708 --> 00:24:49,000
alien civilization? We could be very

718
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:49,916
early. We could be very late.

719
00:24:50,750 --> 00:24:53,083
They appear once per million galaxies,

720
00:24:53,083 --> 00:24:54,791
but at random. Didn't one happen to

721
00:24:54,791 --> 00:24:55,666
appear much closer to

722
00:24:55,666 --> 00:24:57,458
us or much farther away?

723
00:24:57,458 --> 00:24:59,208
Those random elements means we can't set

724
00:24:59,208 --> 00:25:02,708
the exact date because we're not sure how

725
00:25:02,708 --> 00:25:03,958
early we are or how

726
00:25:03,958 --> 00:25:05,083
close the nearest one is.

727
00:25:05,083 --> 00:25:06,500
I guess what I'm trying to get at here is

728
00:25:06,500 --> 00:25:08,333
if we then look at the model and say,

729
00:25:08,333 --> 00:25:10,750
"Okay, UAP do represent something from

730
00:25:10,750 --> 00:25:13,500
somewhere else," that much lower

731
00:25:13,500 --> 00:25:15,541
probability becomes a certainty.

732
00:25:15,541 --> 00:25:16,541
And how does that

733
00:25:16,541 --> 00:25:17,041
incorporate into that model?

734
00:25:17,625 --> 00:25:19,291
Right. So the simple grabby aliens model,

735
00:25:19,291 --> 00:25:22,250
as I said before, just doesn't find it at

736
00:25:22,250 --> 00:25:22,958
all plausible. There

737
00:25:22,958 --> 00:25:24,916
could be any aliens nearest.

738
00:25:24,916 --> 00:25:28,958
It says, "No, that's just kind of crazy."

739
00:25:28,958 --> 00:25:31,000
But there's a simple way to modify it,

740
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,500
which is to assume that the aliens are

741
00:25:33,500 --> 00:25:36,166
siblings, panspermia siblings to us, that

742
00:25:36,166 --> 00:25:37,916
they evolved from the same

743
00:25:37,916 --> 00:25:40,000
original planet that we did,

744
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,833
where life spread from that planet to our

745
00:25:41,833 --> 00:25:45,375
cell nursery, and then we drifted apart,

746
00:25:45,375 --> 00:25:45,916
but we had the same origin.

747
00:25:46,500 --> 00:25:48,166
And that would be a way

748
00:25:48,166 --> 00:25:50,750
to allow aliens being here.

749
00:25:50,750 --> 00:25:53,083
What are they doing?

750
00:25:53,083 --> 00:25:56,541
Well, so we have to add something more to

751
00:25:56,541 --> 00:25:58,375
this story to have it make sense.

752
00:25:58,375 --> 00:26:01,333
So if panspermia siblings showed up

753
00:26:01,333 --> 00:26:06,083
before us, the statistics say they

754
00:26:06,083 --> 00:26:08,625
couldn't have shown up just a thousand

755
00:26:08,625 --> 00:26:09,666
years ago or a million years ago.

756
00:26:09,666 --> 00:26:10,791
That would be an amazing

757
00:26:10,791 --> 00:26:11,291
coincidence in their timing.

758
00:26:11,916 --> 00:26:13,666
Plausibly, they would have appeared a

759
00:26:13,666 --> 00:26:16,583
hundred million years ago or even longer.

760
00:26:16,583 --> 00:26:18,791
And in our galaxy, like a few thousand

761
00:26:18,791 --> 00:26:21,000
light years away, a hundred million years

762
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,625
ago, a hundred million years is plenty of

763
00:26:23,625 --> 00:26:26,666
time for civilization that allows it to

764
00:26:26,666 --> 00:26:29,083
just expand, fill the whole galaxy, fill

765
00:26:29,083 --> 00:26:31,833
the neighboring hundred galaxies,

766
00:26:32,958 --> 00:26:35,666
and make a huge difference such that we

767
00:26:35,666 --> 00:26:37,250
wouldn't be here now. That is, they could

768
00:26:37,250 --> 00:26:39,833
have come to Earth a long time ago and

769
00:26:39,833 --> 00:26:42,375
remade Earth and remade everything nearby

770
00:26:42,375 --> 00:26:45,000
into whatever civilization they wanted.

771
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,041
Clearly, they didn't do that.

772
00:26:47,041 --> 00:26:49,166
So in order to make sense of the story

773
00:26:49,166 --> 00:26:50,750
that aliens are here now, and they showed

774
00:26:50,750 --> 00:26:52,250
up as our siblings a hundred million

775
00:26:52,250 --> 00:26:53,541
years ago, we have to add a

776
00:26:53,541 --> 00:26:55,250
next element to our story,

777
00:26:55,250 --> 00:26:56,666
and we're going to have to penalize our

778
00:26:56,666 --> 00:26:58,208
hypothesis for this next element, which

779
00:26:58,208 --> 00:26:59,708
is they, for some

780
00:26:59,708 --> 00:27:00,916
reason, did not want to expand.

781
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,291
They did not want to allow this remaking

782
00:27:05,291 --> 00:27:07,833
of the galaxy and the universe. They had

783
00:27:07,833 --> 00:27:09,458
a rule against that.

784
00:27:09,458 --> 00:27:11,000
Now, if we talk to people today, there's

785
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:12,250
a lot of people who think that would be a

786
00:27:12,250 --> 00:27:14,041
good idea. So it's not so crazy.

787
00:27:14,041 --> 00:27:15,958
A lot of people are kind of wary of us

788
00:27:15,958 --> 00:27:16,583
going out in the

789
00:27:16,583 --> 00:27:17,583
universe and remaking it.

790
00:27:17,583 --> 00:27:20,375
They think that's somewhat of a harm to

791
00:27:20,375 --> 00:27:21,916
nature. It's arrogant, et cetera.

792
00:27:22,875 --> 00:27:25,500
And in addition, it would break our

793
00:27:25,500 --> 00:27:28,000
civilization permanently into fragments

794
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,291
that couldn't be unified together by a

795
00:27:30,291 --> 00:27:32,458
single central governance or community.

796
00:27:32,458 --> 00:27:34,250
I just want to say real quick, too, we're

797
00:27:34,250 --> 00:27:36,875
using the speed of light as a travel and

798
00:27:36,875 --> 00:27:38,291
communication limit in this theory.

799
00:27:38,291 --> 00:27:41,666
Yes. So if you assume the speed of light

800
00:27:41,666 --> 00:27:42,833
is not a limit, you

801
00:27:42,833 --> 00:27:43,916
have a much bigger puzzle,

802
00:27:45,166 --> 00:27:48,125
because if you could go faster than speed

803
00:27:48,125 --> 00:27:50,708
of light, then any civilization anywhere

804
00:27:50,708 --> 00:27:52,875
in the universe could fill the entire

805
00:27:52,875 --> 00:27:54,000
universe in space time all

806
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:55,416
the way back to the beginning.

807
00:27:55,416 --> 00:27:57,000
So the fact the universe is empty would

808
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:58,375
be a much bigger puzzle.

809
00:27:58,375 --> 00:28:01,250
It would say no civilization anywhere in

810
00:28:01,250 --> 00:28:02,791
space time wanted to

811
00:28:02,791 --> 00:28:05,083
come here and do stuff here.

812
00:28:05,083 --> 00:28:07,333
So either you'd have to believe there was

813
00:28:07,333 --> 00:28:09,833
only very few of them who decided not to

814
00:28:09,833 --> 00:28:10,916
expand or there's none other out there.

815
00:28:11,833 --> 00:28:15,833
So I think it's a much more plausible

816
00:28:15,833 --> 00:28:17,833
hypothesis to believe that the speed of

817
00:28:17,833 --> 00:28:19,083
light is a solid limit,

818
00:28:19,083 --> 00:28:20,833
in which case you only have to explain

819
00:28:20,833 --> 00:28:22,375
why stuff in our backward light cone

820
00:28:22,375 --> 00:28:24,875
isn't here, not why nothing

821
00:28:24,875 --> 00:28:26,916
in the entire universe is here.

822
00:28:26,916 --> 00:28:28,375
To review, we're trying to

823
00:28:28,375 --> 00:28:31,333
make sense of UAPs as aliens.

824
00:28:31,333 --> 00:28:33,208
And we're asking what story can we make

825
00:28:33,208 --> 00:28:36,541
up that fits what we see and is the most

826
00:28:36,541 --> 00:28:37,916
likely in order to—

827
00:28:38,291 --> 00:28:39,416
and then at the end of it we're going to

828
00:28:39,416 --> 00:28:41,291
ask, how likely is that?

829
00:28:41,291 --> 00:28:43,375
Is that crazy unlikely or just only

830
00:28:43,375 --> 00:28:45,500
somewhat unlikely in the

831
00:28:45,500 --> 00:28:46,958
analogy with the murder trial?

832
00:28:46,958 --> 00:28:48,708
OK, so one thing we had to assume,

833
00:28:48,708 --> 00:28:51,500
panspermia siblings, like the nearest

834
00:28:51,500 --> 00:28:52,541
other aliens are a

835
00:28:52,541 --> 00:28:53,750
million light years away—

836
00:28:53,750 --> 00:28:57,291
I'm sorry, a million galaxies away—and

837
00:28:57,291 --> 00:29:00,166
they are here near us coincidentally

838
00:29:00,166 --> 00:29:01,666
because they had the same origin for us,

839
00:29:01,666 --> 00:29:02,541
panspermia siblings.

840
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,166
The other thing we've got to assume is

841
00:29:05,166 --> 00:29:06,916
for some reason they did not want to go

842
00:29:06,916 --> 00:29:08,291
out and conquer the

843
00:29:08,291 --> 00:29:10,125
universe and fill it up with stuff.

844
00:29:10,125 --> 00:29:12,625
They chose to prevent anyone in their

845
00:29:12,625 --> 00:29:13,875
civilization from doing that because it

846
00:29:13,875 --> 00:29:14,541
would have just taken

847
00:29:14,541 --> 00:29:16,750
one deviant to do it.

848
00:29:16,750 --> 00:29:18,625
And they managed to enforce this rule for

849
00:29:18,625 --> 00:29:20,291
100 million years or

850
00:29:20,291 --> 00:29:22,125
more. Pretty impressive.

851
00:29:22,125 --> 00:29:25,208
Does that penalize your model as well?

852
00:29:25,208 --> 00:29:27,291
Somewhat. Yeah, you have to say how

853
00:29:27,291 --> 00:29:28,541
plausible it is that it could have lasted

854
00:29:28,541 --> 00:29:29,458
for 100 million years

855
00:29:30,208 --> 00:29:31,208
for those to make this

856
00:29:31,208 --> 00:29:33,666
assumption of no expansion.

857
00:29:33,666 --> 00:29:34,833
And then you have to ask, what's the

858
00:29:34,833 --> 00:29:35,875
chance they would have made

859
00:29:35,875 --> 00:29:38,125
this rule of no expansion?

860
00:29:38,125 --> 00:29:40,208
But once you make those assumptions, now

861
00:29:40,208 --> 00:29:41,208
we have an explanation

862
00:29:41,208 --> 00:29:42,833
for why they'd be here.

863
00:29:42,833 --> 00:29:44,958
We'd say, well, they know that if they're

864
00:29:44,958 --> 00:29:46,958
making this rule and some other

865
00:29:46,958 --> 00:29:50,041
panspermia sibling shows up and expands,

866
00:29:50,041 --> 00:29:51,541
then that defeats the

867
00:29:51,541 --> 00:29:52,875
purpose of their rule.

868
00:29:52,875 --> 00:29:54,500
Somebody else will go fill the universe.

869
00:29:54,500 --> 00:29:56,000
And if they don't want that, then they've

870
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,833
got to come here to

871
00:29:57,833 --> 00:29:58,916
do something about it.

872
00:29:59,916 --> 00:30:00,583
Obviously, one thing they

873
00:30:00,583 --> 00:30:02,291
could have done is just destroy us.

874
00:30:02,291 --> 00:30:03,583
They could have just sent a bomb from a

875
00:30:03,583 --> 00:30:04,000
distance, and that

876
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,833
would be the end of it.

877
00:30:05,833 --> 00:30:07,583
Easy peasy.

878
00:30:07,583 --> 00:30:09,666
But we'll have to also add the assumption

879
00:30:09,666 --> 00:30:12,583
that they didn't want to just destroy us.

880
00:30:12,583 --> 00:30:14,833
They would rather persuade us.

881
00:30:14,833 --> 00:30:16,416
So now we have a story for

882
00:30:16,416 --> 00:30:17,500
why they made it an exception.

883
00:30:17,500 --> 00:30:18,500
Because if they're going to have this

884
00:30:18,500 --> 00:30:19,458
rule against no expansion,

885
00:30:19,458 --> 00:30:20,916
they can't be allowing very many

886
00:30:20,916 --> 00:30:22,291
expeditions away from home.

887
00:30:22,291 --> 00:30:23,250
Every expedition

888
00:30:23,250 --> 00:30:23,916
risks breaking this rule.

889
00:30:24,291 --> 00:30:26,833
And again, they managed it for 100

890
00:30:26,833 --> 00:30:28,166
million years. They had to be pretty anal

891
00:30:28,166 --> 00:30:31,000
about this, right, to manage this.

892
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:32,791
Nobody leaves for 100 million years.

893
00:30:32,791 --> 00:30:34,416
Every monitoring station would be an

894
00:30:34,416 --> 00:30:35,291
exception, potentially.

895
00:30:35,291 --> 00:30:37,166
Right, exactly. And every expedition away

896
00:30:37,166 --> 00:30:38,041
would be an exception.

897
00:30:38,041 --> 00:30:39,875
So they can't allow very many exceptions,

898
00:30:39,875 --> 00:30:41,750
but they chose to

899
00:30:41,750 --> 00:30:44,791
allow an exception for us.

900
00:30:44,791 --> 00:30:47,041
And so this expedition is going to come

901
00:30:47,041 --> 00:30:47,916
here, and its purpose, mainly,

902
00:30:48,708 --> 00:30:50,416
and do other things as well, is to

903
00:30:50,416 --> 00:30:54,583
convince us not to expand.

904
00:30:54,583 --> 00:30:59,500
And without killing us, preferably.

905
00:30:59,500 --> 00:31:02,958
And in addition, they don't want the

906
00:31:02,958 --> 00:31:05,125
strategy that this expedition has to be,

907
00:31:05,125 --> 00:31:06,333
require a lot of discretion

908
00:31:06,333 --> 00:31:08,500
or judgment or creativity,

909
00:31:08,500 --> 00:31:09,750
because any one of those things is going

910
00:31:09,750 --> 00:31:12,791
to risk this thing going rogue.

911
00:31:12,791 --> 00:31:14,083
So they need to

912
00:31:14,083 --> 00:31:14,916
approve a strategy from home.

913
00:31:15,958 --> 00:31:17,166
Okay, we're going to send this thing out,

914
00:31:17,166 --> 00:31:18,750
and it's going to only have the equipment

915
00:31:18,750 --> 00:31:19,625
and materials it needs

916
00:31:19,625 --> 00:31:21,750
to implement our strategy.

917
00:31:21,750 --> 00:31:23,500
And they're just going to do what we told

918
00:31:23,500 --> 00:31:24,541
them to, and they're not

919
00:31:24,541 --> 00:31:26,083
going to have a lot of discretion.

920
00:31:26,083 --> 00:31:28,208
So they can't have chosen the strategy

921
00:31:28,208 --> 00:31:29,583
based on many details about us,

922
00:31:29,583 --> 00:31:30,708
because they wouldn't know very many

923
00:31:30,708 --> 00:31:32,166
details about us, and our

924
00:31:32,166 --> 00:31:33,291
details change over time.

925
00:31:33,291 --> 00:31:36,375
So not just something, not just an

926
00:31:36,375 --> 00:31:37,916
expedition from that society,

927
00:31:38,500 --> 00:31:41,583
but a sufficient enough technology, a

928
00:31:41,583 --> 00:31:43,625
representation of that society, perhaps,

929
00:31:43,625 --> 00:31:46,416
would even break that rule.

930
00:31:46,416 --> 00:31:47,916
An artificial intelligence that they

931
00:31:47,916 --> 00:31:50,000
created, perhaps, however we define it.

932
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,375
They needed to have strong political

933
00:31:52,375 --> 00:31:54,291
officers, if you will, inside this

934
00:31:54,291 --> 00:31:55,416
expedition to make sure

935
00:31:55,416 --> 00:31:57,666
it followed their rules.

936
00:31:57,666 --> 00:31:59,750
And so it needs to have a very simple

937
00:31:59,750 --> 00:32:01,625
strategy and just execute it.

938
00:32:01,625 --> 00:32:04,500
So then that's our next question.

939
00:32:04,500 --> 00:32:05,416
What quarter strategy

940
00:32:05,416 --> 00:32:06,916
could they have picked?

941
00:32:07,458 --> 00:32:09,666
And we also need to explain one more

942
00:32:09,666 --> 00:32:12,375
piece of data to combine these together.

943
00:32:12,375 --> 00:32:14,250
So the one other puzzling thing about

944
00:32:14,250 --> 00:32:16,791
UAPs is the following.

945
00:32:16,791 --> 00:32:19,416
A hundred million year old civilization

946
00:32:19,416 --> 00:32:22,625
would be either quite capable of being

947
00:32:22,625 --> 00:32:24,166
completely obvious or

948
00:32:24,166 --> 00:32:26,000
being completely invisible.

949
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:27,000
Both of those would have

950
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:28,916
been easy for them to do.

951
00:32:29,666 --> 00:32:32,625
And yet they chose a third option, which

952
00:32:32,625 --> 00:32:35,875
is to be at the edge of visibility, not

953
00:32:35,875 --> 00:32:37,541
making themselves really clear,

954
00:32:37,541 --> 00:32:40,083
and not being completely invisible.

955
00:32:40,083 --> 00:32:42,125
Which many people have noted is kind of a

956
00:32:42,125 --> 00:32:43,958
strange thing for them to do.

957
00:32:43,958 --> 00:32:47,750
Why hang out at the edge of visibility?

958
00:32:47,750 --> 00:32:50,041
So we're trying to explain that, and in

959
00:32:50,041 --> 00:32:52,000
addition we're saying they had to have a

960
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:53,916
strategy to come here to persuade us.

961
00:32:54,375 --> 00:32:55,750
So we're trying to combine these two

962
00:32:55,750 --> 00:32:59,041
things into our story of why aliens would

963
00:32:59,041 --> 00:33:01,000
be here if they exist.

964
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,875
So the answer I can think of to combine

965
00:33:04,875 --> 00:33:05,625
these two things

966
00:33:05,625 --> 00:33:09,875
together is domestication.

967
00:33:09,875 --> 00:33:14,125
So humans have always had a status

968
00:33:14,125 --> 00:33:15,833
hierarchy, and basically most social

969
00:33:15,833 --> 00:33:16,833
animals that are relatively

970
00:33:16,833 --> 00:33:17,916
smart have a status hierarchy.

971
00:33:18,958 --> 00:33:21,375
In a status hierarchy, the higher status

972
00:33:21,375 --> 00:33:23,916
animals are respected and deferred to by

973
00:33:23,916 --> 00:33:25,583
the lower status animals.

974
00:33:25,583 --> 00:33:27,625
And this is in fact how humans have

975
00:33:27,625 --> 00:33:30,291
usually domesticated other animals and

976
00:33:30,291 --> 00:33:32,416
domesticated ourselves.

977
00:33:32,416 --> 00:33:33,500
Basically we sit at the top

978
00:33:33,500 --> 00:33:34,958
of their status hierarchy.

979
00:33:34,958 --> 00:33:35,958
We are the top dog, the

980
00:33:35,958 --> 00:33:38,416
top horse, whatever it is.

981
00:33:38,416 --> 00:33:39,666
We show up and we are

982
00:33:39,666 --> 00:33:41,166
the top of their hierarchy.

983
00:33:41,166 --> 00:33:43,083
We show that we are stronger, more

984
00:33:43,083 --> 00:33:45,916
capable, and also somewhat friendly.

985
00:33:46,083 --> 00:33:47,333
That is, we aren't

986
00:33:47,333 --> 00:33:48,333
enemies trying to destroy them.

987
00:33:48,333 --> 00:33:51,708
We're there with them and above them.

988
00:33:51,708 --> 00:33:53,666
And we earn their respect, and we've done

989
00:33:53,666 --> 00:33:54,541
that when humans,

990
00:33:54,541 --> 00:33:56,375
like emperors of empires,

991
00:33:56,375 --> 00:33:58,541
this is how emperors have domesticated

992
00:33:58,541 --> 00:33:59,791
their empires, right?

993
00:33:59,791 --> 00:34:01,458
They have the biggest palace, the biggest

994
00:34:01,458 --> 00:34:03,583
crown, the biggest army, and they are the

995
00:34:03,583 --> 00:34:04,875
most impressive, the most

996
00:34:04,875 --> 00:34:05,916
articulate, the richest.

997
00:34:06,541 --> 00:34:08,791
And humans have domesticated ourselves

998
00:34:08,791 --> 00:34:12,875
and other animals by showing up, being

999
00:34:12,875 --> 00:34:14,416
more impressive,

1000
00:34:14,416 --> 00:34:16,916
being relatively peaceful,

1001
00:34:16,916 --> 00:34:18,166
and making it

1002
00:34:18,166 --> 00:34:19,458
somewhat clear what you want.

1003
00:34:19,458 --> 00:34:20,541
And then people go

1004
00:34:20,541 --> 00:34:21,750
along with what they want.

1005
00:34:21,750 --> 00:34:23,666
That's the history of

1006
00:34:23,666 --> 00:34:25,250
humans and other animals.

1007
00:34:25,250 --> 00:34:28,250
So the hypothesis is that the aliens,

1008
00:34:28,250 --> 00:34:29,625
that's also true for their social

1009
00:34:29,625 --> 00:34:30,875
animals, that's true for them.

1010
00:34:30,875 --> 00:34:31,916
They have a status hierarchy.

1011
00:34:32,166 --> 00:34:34,750
They've domesticated other animals by

1012
00:34:34,750 --> 00:34:36,958
that sort of strategy in the past, and so

1013
00:34:36,958 --> 00:34:39,541
they figure that could work for us.

1014
00:34:39,541 --> 00:34:40,958
And it's a simple strategy.

1015
00:34:40,958 --> 00:34:43,333
You show up, you're nearby, you're

1016
00:34:43,333 --> 00:34:45,333
peaceful, and you're really impressive,

1017
00:34:45,333 --> 00:34:47,125
and you make it clear what you want.

1018
00:34:47,125 --> 00:34:48,333
And that's it.

1019
00:34:48,333 --> 00:34:50,041
Are we clear what they want?

1020
00:34:50,041 --> 00:34:52,708
Well, I would say we can figure it out.

1021
00:34:52,708 --> 00:34:54,083
Now, maybe we haven't so

1022
00:34:54,083 --> 00:34:56,250
far, but it's not that hard.

1023
00:34:56,250 --> 00:34:58,666
That is, under what I just told you, we

1024
00:34:58,666 --> 00:35:00,625
know what they want, right?

1025
00:35:01,291 --> 00:35:03,958
So all we have to—all they had to

1026
00:35:03,958 --> 00:35:05,666
assume is that we could figure this out.

1027
00:35:05,666 --> 00:35:08,083
We could figure out that they had to be a

1028
00:35:08,083 --> 00:35:09,791
rare panspermia of siblings, that they

1029
00:35:09,791 --> 00:35:10,541
did not conquer the

1030
00:35:10,541 --> 00:35:12,041
universe, therefore they did not—

1031
00:35:12,041 --> 00:35:14,416
they had a rule against that, and that

1032
00:35:14,416 --> 00:35:16,041
they made an exception to come here.

1033
00:35:16,041 --> 00:35:18,375
So, duh, the reason they're here is to

1034
00:35:18,375 --> 00:35:20,250
get us to go along with their rule.

1035
00:35:20,250 --> 00:35:21,833
Maybe that's what they afford, just the

1036
00:35:21,833 --> 00:35:23,000
opportunity to see the

1037
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:25,541
rationale behind their behavior.

1038
00:35:25,541 --> 00:35:26,875
Right. So under this theory, all we need

1039
00:35:26,875 --> 00:35:27,916
to see is that they're here.

1040
00:35:28,500 --> 00:35:30,541
They're not from here. They're

1041
00:35:30,541 --> 00:35:33,333
peaceful. They're impressive.

1042
00:35:33,333 --> 00:35:35,333
That's all we need to know, and we should

1043
00:35:35,333 --> 00:35:36,375
be able to figure out why

1044
00:35:36,375 --> 00:35:38,458
they're here and what they want.

1045
00:35:38,458 --> 00:35:39,500
That would be the story. So they

1046
00:35:39,500 --> 00:35:42,208
don't—I mean, I think, but why not, you

1047
00:35:42,208 --> 00:35:43,750
know, be really obvious?

1048
00:35:43,750 --> 00:35:45,875
Why not do that? Obviously, being

1049
00:35:45,875 --> 00:35:47,375
invisible won't work for this strategy.

1050
00:35:47,375 --> 00:35:49,625
Why wouldn't be really obvious work?

1051
00:35:49,625 --> 00:35:51,125
Wouldn't that be much clearer? Why risk

1052
00:35:51,125 --> 00:35:52,541
any miscommunication?

1053
00:35:53,458 --> 00:35:55,875
What would you expect from feedback from

1054
00:35:55,875 --> 00:35:56,583
something like this if you

1055
00:35:56,583 --> 00:35:59,500
were to poke it, essentially?

1056
00:35:59,500 --> 00:36:00,916
Now, if this thing is there for

1057
00:36:00,916 --> 00:36:03,750
monitoring with limited

1058
00:36:03,750 --> 00:36:05,125
ability to interact, you know,

1059
00:36:05,125 --> 00:36:06,708
what does that tell you about the

1060
00:36:06,708 --> 00:36:08,916
potential domain of

1061
00:36:08,916 --> 00:36:10,416
responses or behaviors?

1062
00:36:10,416 --> 00:36:14,291
So even today, a powerful warrior in full

1063
00:36:14,291 --> 00:36:17,041
regalia, if punched by a two-year-old

1064
00:36:17,041 --> 00:36:19,916
toddler, won't retaliate violently

1065
00:36:20,500 --> 00:36:22,500
because they feel very confident they

1066
00:36:22,500 --> 00:36:24,000
can't be hurt by the toddler.

1067
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,291
Their usual norm is to laugh it off and

1068
00:36:27,291 --> 00:36:30,291
to find it funny and engaging that the

1069
00:36:30,291 --> 00:36:31,750
two-year-old toddler

1070
00:36:31,750 --> 00:36:33,625
would even try to hit them.

1071
00:36:33,625 --> 00:36:35,708
So we have a general norm that if you're

1072
00:36:35,708 --> 00:36:37,500
too much more powerful than somebody

1073
00:36:37,500 --> 00:36:40,041
else, you take small attacks

1074
00:36:40,041 --> 00:36:42,541
and you let them slide off.

1075
00:36:42,541 --> 00:36:44,500
And that's often a way you show that

1076
00:36:44,500 --> 00:36:46,250
you're so much more powerful that you

1077
00:36:46,250 --> 00:36:47,791
can't even be bothered to respond to

1078
00:36:47,791 --> 00:36:48,916
somebody's pitiful attack.

1079
00:36:49,333 --> 00:36:51,000
I might not, you know, hit the child

1080
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:52,750
back, but I definitely would not hit the

1081
00:36:52,750 --> 00:36:54,041
child back. Let's make that clear.

1082
00:36:54,041 --> 00:36:54,500
Okay, good.

1083
00:36:54,500 --> 00:36:55,666
All right.

1084
00:36:55,666 --> 00:36:56,416
It's very clear.

1085
00:36:56,416 --> 00:36:57,875
But I might move out of the way. I might

1086
00:36:57,875 --> 00:36:58,916
respond in some fashion.

1087
00:36:58,916 --> 00:37:00,250
Right.

1088
00:37:00,250 --> 00:37:03,333
And so, you know, as we, you know, these

1089
00:37:03,333 --> 00:37:05,958
questions are interesting to me because

1090
00:37:05,958 --> 00:37:07,500
I'm actively engaged in

1091
00:37:07,500 --> 00:37:08,791
different efforts to now detect

1092
00:37:08,791 --> 00:37:12,625
and perhaps consider what the purpose or

1093
00:37:12,625 --> 00:37:14,875
at least pattern of these objects are.

1094
00:37:15,083 --> 00:37:17,708
And so one of the things I've considered

1095
00:37:17,708 --> 00:37:19,083
even professionally when I was working in

1096
00:37:19,083 --> 00:37:20,541
the defense industry

1097
00:37:20,541 --> 00:37:21,750
against normal adversaries,

1098
00:37:21,750 --> 00:37:24,000
but even against these, is how do we

1099
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:25,916
provide a certain stimulus so we can, you

1100
00:37:25,916 --> 00:37:28,166
know, build a very simple model,

1101
00:37:28,166 --> 00:37:29,791
stimulate that model, that environment,

1102
00:37:29,791 --> 00:37:30,916
and see how it responds

1103
00:37:30,916 --> 00:37:33,291
to learn more about it.

1104
00:37:33,291 --> 00:37:35,791
So that's perhaps the area I'm talking

1105
00:37:35,791 --> 00:37:37,708
about now, given any thought.

1106
00:37:37,708 --> 00:37:39,375
Okay. So let's get to that

1107
00:37:39,375 --> 00:37:40,875
after we finish the story.

1108
00:37:40,875 --> 00:37:41,791
Okay.

1109
00:37:41,791 --> 00:37:43,375
I'm joking.
Yeah, because that's a

1110
00:37:43,375 --> 00:37:45,166
great next point to get to.

1111
00:37:45,166 --> 00:37:48,750
So in the story, their strategy is merely

1112
00:37:48,750 --> 00:37:52,541
to be impressive and visible nearby and

1113
00:37:52,541 --> 00:37:54,750
let us get it and figure it out.

1114
00:37:54,750 --> 00:37:56,583
But there's this question, why wouldn't

1115
00:37:56,583 --> 00:37:58,250
they just be completely obvious?

1116
00:37:58,250 --> 00:37:59,875
Why hang out at the edge of visibility?

1117
00:37:59,875 --> 00:38:03,041
And the story there could be that even

1118
00:38:03,041 --> 00:38:06,166
among humans, we often hate other humans

1119
00:38:06,166 --> 00:38:08,541
for relatively minor differences.

1120
00:38:09,333 --> 00:38:11,166
And we're really quite capable of seeing

1121
00:38:11,166 --> 00:38:13,541
them as another instead of us on the

1122
00:38:13,541 --> 00:38:15,250
basis of pretty small things.

1123
00:38:15,250 --> 00:38:17,083
These are actual aliens who are actually

1124
00:38:17,083 --> 00:38:18,333
going to be different from us

1125
00:38:18,333 --> 00:38:20,083
in a lot of pretty big ways.

1126
00:38:20,083 --> 00:38:21,000
Maybe they eat babies.

1127
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:21,541
They don't think it's a

1128
00:38:21,541 --> 00:38:23,666
big deal, but we might.

1129
00:38:23,666 --> 00:38:25,166
They're afraid, right?

1130
00:38:25,166 --> 00:38:27,416
So this whole strategy won't work if they

1131
00:38:27,416 --> 00:38:29,458
reveal too much about themselves.

1132
00:38:29,458 --> 00:38:32,041
And the same way that, like, elites of an

1133
00:38:32,041 --> 00:38:33,833
empire might not get the loyalty of the

1134
00:38:33,833 --> 00:38:35,583
empire if they show too many internal

1135
00:38:35,583 --> 00:38:37,916
ways that those elites act differently from the rest of the people.

1136
00:38:39,041 --> 00:38:41,666
So often in the past, elites of an empire

1137
00:38:41,666 --> 00:38:45,166
would keep themselves apart and just show

1138
00:38:45,166 --> 00:38:46,208
their impressiveness but

1139
00:38:46,208 --> 00:38:48,291
not show all their details.

1140
00:38:48,291 --> 00:38:50,458
And so the aliens are just going to be

1141
00:38:50,458 --> 00:38:51,708
different in more ways, and there's just

1142
00:38:51,708 --> 00:38:53,541
going to be something about them we hate.

1143
00:38:53,541 --> 00:38:55,333
So they can't risk revealing

1144
00:38:55,333 --> 00:38:56,791
that much about themselves.

1145
00:38:56,791 --> 00:38:57,500
But with their

1146
00:38:57,500 --> 00:38:59,750
strategy, they don't need to.

1147
00:38:59,750 --> 00:39:01,541
All they need to do is be here, be

1148
00:39:01,541 --> 00:39:02,791
impressive, and make it clear what they

1149
00:39:02,791 --> 00:39:03,916
want, and that'll be enough.

1150
00:39:04,958 --> 00:39:10,291
So the implication here is all these UFP

1151
00:39:10,291 --> 00:39:12,458
sightings are just about them showing off

1152
00:39:12,458 --> 00:39:14,958
their abilities, and plausibly there's

1153
00:39:14,958 --> 00:39:16,416
nothing else they're trying to say.

1154
00:39:16,416 --> 00:39:18,583
There's no more clues to be gotten, and

1155
00:39:18,583 --> 00:39:19,500
they actually don't want

1156
00:39:19,500 --> 00:39:20,291
you to get any more clues.

1157
00:39:20,291 --> 00:39:21,791
And if you're trying to probe them to get

1158
00:39:21,791 --> 00:39:23,166
information and they figure that out,

1159
00:39:23,166 --> 00:39:26,500
they're just going to, you know, resist

1160
00:39:26,500 --> 00:39:29,541
your probes and not respond in a way that

1161
00:39:29,541 --> 00:39:30,416
would be informative to you.

1162
00:39:30,416 --> 00:39:30,916
They're just going to be— Right.

1163
00:39:31,583 --> 00:39:34,500
They're just going to try to be opaque.

1164
00:39:34,500 --> 00:39:35,666
All they're trying to do is make you see

1165
00:39:35,666 --> 00:39:36,458
they're there and that

1166
00:39:36,458 --> 00:39:38,125
they're impressive and peaceful.

1167
00:39:38,125 --> 00:39:39,500
That's it.

1168
00:39:39,500 --> 00:39:41,000
And clearly, like, they're

1169
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:42,583
not trying to help, right?

1170
00:39:42,583 --> 00:39:44,583
They haven't been interfering much.

1171
00:39:44,583 --> 00:39:45,333
I'm certainly not taking

1172
00:39:45,333 --> 00:39:47,541
any credit for it to help us.

1173
00:39:47,541 --> 00:39:49,000
They didn't, like, take one side of World

1174
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:50,833
War II or something, or they didn't,

1175
00:39:50,833 --> 00:39:52,125
like, take out the nuclear

1176
00:39:52,125 --> 00:39:55,500
bombs in Cold War, right?

1177
00:39:55,500 --> 00:39:57,500
There's lots of things

1178
00:39:57,500 --> 00:39:59,208
they could have done for us.

1179
00:39:59,208 --> 00:39:59,916
They didn't do anything.

1180
00:40:00,541 --> 00:40:03,500
They're not here to do something for us.

1181
00:40:03,500 --> 00:40:04,291
They're not trying to

1182
00:40:04,291 --> 00:40:05,125
give us information.

1183
00:40:05,125 --> 00:40:06,958
And so if they don't want us to know, and

1184
00:40:06,958 --> 00:40:08,250
they're 100 million years more advanced

1185
00:40:08,250 --> 00:40:10,500
than us, what's the chance we're going to

1186
00:40:10,500 --> 00:40:11,083
figure out more than

1187
00:40:11,083 --> 00:40:13,250
they want us to know?

1188
00:40:13,250 --> 00:40:15,083
And so that's just a status quo, then,

1189
00:40:15,083 --> 00:40:16,083
that we should expect

1190
00:40:16,083 --> 00:40:17,750
for the foreseeable future.

1191
00:40:17,750 --> 00:40:18,208
Right.

1192
00:40:18,208 --> 00:40:21,458
I mean, we might coordinate more to

1193
00:40:21,458 --> 00:40:23,125
decide that, okay, we really did see

1194
00:40:23,125 --> 00:40:26,125
stuff and they really are here, but

1195
00:40:26,125 --> 00:40:26,916
plausibly we won't

1196
00:40:26,916 --> 00:40:28,166
learn any more about them.

1197
00:40:28,166 --> 00:40:28,916
I mean, not even their local base.

1198
00:40:29,583 --> 00:40:31,000
They've got to have some local base,

1199
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,041
right, physically, where they're sitting.

1200
00:40:34,041 --> 00:40:35,250
And presumably they'd be a little more

1201
00:40:35,250 --> 00:40:36,916
vulnerable if we knew where that was.

1202
00:40:36,916 --> 00:40:38,208
They don't want us to know where that is.

1203
00:40:38,208 --> 00:40:39,500
We're not going to find out where that

1204
00:40:39,500 --> 00:40:43,833
is, you know, because they can just hide.

1205
00:40:43,833 --> 00:40:45,000
It's not a pretty picture.

1206
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,083
It's not an inspiring

1207
00:40:46,083 --> 00:40:49,041
picture, necessarily.

1208
00:40:49,041 --> 00:40:50,875
What does this say to our, you know, our

1209
00:40:50,875 --> 00:40:52,833
attempts and our thoughts of better

1210
00:40:52,833 --> 00:40:53,916
understanding of this?

1211
00:40:55,291 --> 00:40:57,291
It suggests that the main thing was we

1212
00:40:57,291 --> 00:41:00,333
should just decide if we already know

1213
00:41:00,333 --> 00:41:03,166
enough and we should draw a conclusion of

1214
00:41:03,166 --> 00:41:04,875
what we already know.

1215
00:41:04,875 --> 00:41:08,458
So in a lot of the UAP world, people who

1216
00:41:08,458 --> 00:41:10,541
talk about this stuff, there is this norm

1217
00:41:10,541 --> 00:41:12,500
that we shouldn't talk much about what

1218
00:41:12,500 --> 00:41:14,083
the evidence implies.

1219
00:41:14,083 --> 00:41:15,791
We should just be trying harder to

1220
00:41:15,791 --> 00:41:17,291
collect more evidence to convince people

1221
00:41:17,291 --> 00:41:18,916
the evidence is really there.

1222
00:41:19,750 --> 00:41:22,750
I think that's unfortunate because maybe

1223
00:41:22,750 --> 00:41:25,958
we already know enough to conclude as

1224
00:41:25,958 --> 00:41:26,833
much as we're ever going

1225
00:41:26,833 --> 00:41:28,916
to conclude for a while.

1226
00:41:28,916 --> 00:41:30,875
And we're never necessarily going to get

1227
00:41:30,875 --> 00:41:33,125
that much stronger evidence because they

1228
00:41:33,125 --> 00:41:34,583
don't want us to have

1229
00:41:34,583 --> 00:41:36,500
that much more evidence.

1230
00:41:36,500 --> 00:41:38,625
So maybe, I mean, they want us to have

1231
00:41:38,625 --> 00:41:39,875
evidence that they exist

1232
00:41:39,875 --> 00:41:41,458
and they really are there.

1233
00:41:41,458 --> 00:41:42,416
They don't mind just, you

1234
00:41:42,416 --> 00:41:43,916
know, being convinced of that.

1235
00:41:44,291 --> 00:41:46,166
But figuring out what their things are

1236
00:41:46,166 --> 00:41:48,791
made out of or kind of physics devices

1237
00:41:48,791 --> 00:41:51,500
they're using or, you know, how they're

1238
00:41:51,500 --> 00:41:52,916
internally socially organized, they don't

1239
00:41:52,916 --> 00:41:54,958
want us to know those things.

1240
00:41:54,958 --> 00:41:56,833
So we're not going to find out.

1241
00:41:56,833 --> 00:41:57,791
Yeah, because really our

1242
00:41:57,791 --> 00:41:59,750
technology will never catch up.

1243
00:41:59,750 --> 00:42:01,125
Well, not for a long time. Yeah.

1244
00:42:01,125 --> 00:42:03,500
Well, unless if we assume that there's an

1245
00:42:03,500 --> 00:42:05,625
end point, right, we would assume—

1246
00:42:05,625 --> 00:42:07,250
I think it would be fair to say that we

1247
00:42:07,250 --> 00:42:08,666
can't catch up if they have millions of

1248
00:42:08,666 --> 00:42:10,916
years on us, assuming we have relatively

1249
00:42:10,916 --> 00:42:12,916
similar ability to gain knowledge and progress.

1250
00:42:14,583 --> 00:42:17,583
And so in a sense, there almost wouldn't

1251
00:42:17,583 --> 00:42:18,583
be a way to catch up.

1252
00:42:18,583 --> 00:42:20,708
There would just be a way to expand our

1253
00:42:20,708 --> 00:42:21,583
feeble amount of knowledge

1254
00:42:21,583 --> 00:42:25,791
about it to a stair step.

1255
00:42:25,791 --> 00:42:26,833
I guess what I'm trying to say is we

1256
00:42:26,833 --> 00:42:28,541
can't just—we can't expect to fully

1257
00:42:28,541 --> 00:42:29,291
understand the situation.

1258
00:42:29,291 --> 00:42:30,916
So what can we as humans comprehend?

1259
00:42:30,916 --> 00:42:32,041
What can we say

1260
00:42:32,041 --> 00:42:32,958
definitively that we know?

1261
00:42:32,958 --> 00:42:34,541
And how do we move to that

1262
00:42:34,541 --> 00:42:36,166
next thing that we don't know?

1263
00:42:36,166 --> 00:42:37,875
Well, first, we should just walk through

1264
00:42:37,875 --> 00:42:38,916
more things we know from this fact.

1265
00:42:39,541 --> 00:42:42,875
So one thing we should probably know is

1266
00:42:42,875 --> 00:42:45,083
their expedition here has some limits on

1267
00:42:45,083 --> 00:42:47,458
its capacity, right?

1268
00:42:47,458 --> 00:42:50,000
And our technology might

1269
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:51,791
approach theirs at some point.

1270
00:42:51,791 --> 00:42:54,000
And so at some point, they would lose

1271
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,166
control of us if they

1272
00:42:56,166 --> 00:42:57,500
allowed us to go past some limit.

1273
00:42:57,500 --> 00:42:59,958
So there probably is some limit where

1274
00:42:59,958 --> 00:43:01,166
they would either speak

1275
00:43:01,166 --> 00:43:03,416
up, take over, or destroy us.

1276
00:43:03,416 --> 00:43:05,500
We don't know what that limit is.

1277
00:43:05,500 --> 00:43:06,541
Presumably it's

1278
00:43:06,541 --> 00:43:07,041
expansionary in some flavor.

1279
00:43:07,750 --> 00:43:10,041
Right. So one plausible thing is sending

1280
00:43:10,041 --> 00:43:13,583
a probe to another star system.

1281
00:43:13,583 --> 00:43:15,583
Which, if they didn't follow it along and

1282
00:43:15,583 --> 00:43:19,166
keep it under control, would risk them

1283
00:43:19,166 --> 00:43:20,916
having spent a lot bigger budget to keep

1284
00:43:20,916 --> 00:43:22,291
us under control if we expect—

1285
00:43:22,291 --> 00:43:22,916
Presumably they wouldn't

1286
00:43:22,916 --> 00:43:24,250
make those exceptions, right?

1287
00:43:24,250 --> 00:43:28,000
Because that would lead to just

1288
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:28,875
uncontrolled growth.

1289
00:43:28,875 --> 00:43:30,000
Right. So they have this

1290
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:30,791
message, "Don't expand."

1291
00:43:30,791 --> 00:43:31,500
But we don't know where

1292
00:43:31,500 --> 00:43:33,291
the line of expand is.

1293
00:43:33,291 --> 00:43:35,500
My guess would be it's okay to expand

1294
00:43:35,500 --> 00:43:36,000
into the solar system.

1295
00:43:36,583 --> 00:43:37,375
I see.

1296
00:43:37,375 --> 00:43:39,916
But not beyond the solar system.

1297
00:43:39,916 --> 00:43:43,416
Because one plausible story is where they

1298
00:43:43,416 --> 00:43:45,916
drew the line was at being able to

1299
00:43:45,916 --> 00:43:46,875
maintain some internal

1300
00:43:46,875 --> 00:43:48,375
coherence to their civilization,

1301
00:43:48,375 --> 00:43:50,500
where some sort of community of elites

1302
00:43:50,500 --> 00:43:51,833
discussed things together and decided

1303
00:43:51,833 --> 00:43:53,166
things together about what to do.

1304
00:43:53,166 --> 00:43:54,666
And that's feasible within a solar

1305
00:43:54,666 --> 00:43:56,416
system, and it's not really very feasible

1306
00:43:56,416 --> 00:43:58,833
across multiple solar systems, because

1307
00:43:58,833 --> 00:44:02,125
the time delays just get really huge.

1308
00:44:02,125 --> 00:44:03,333
So that would be my guess

1309
00:44:03,333 --> 00:44:04,916
about the line, but we don't know.

1310
00:44:05,458 --> 00:44:06,541
So how do we move this

1311
00:44:06,541 --> 00:44:07,875
conversation forward?

1312
00:44:07,875 --> 00:44:09,750
You've identified that it might be very

1313
00:44:09,750 --> 00:44:11,583
difficult to further understand this

1314
00:44:11,583 --> 00:44:14,625
based off of really the intent of these

1315
00:44:14,625 --> 00:44:16,500
objects, to not let us better understand.

1316
00:44:16,500 --> 00:44:17,000
I don't think we're going to

1317
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:18,666
be satisfied with that answer.

1318
00:44:18,666 --> 00:44:22,333
So how can we better understand this?

1319
00:44:22,333 --> 00:44:25,083
One thing we could do is just get a big

1320
00:44:25,083 --> 00:44:28,208
enough telescope to go look at all the

1321
00:44:28,208 --> 00:44:31,083
stellar siblings and maybe identify the

1322
00:44:31,083 --> 00:44:32,666
ones with life around, or maybe even the

1323
00:44:32,666 --> 00:44:33,166
one with civilization around.

1324
00:44:33,625 --> 00:44:36,625
They probably have a whole solar

1325
00:44:36,625 --> 00:44:39,000
system-wide civilization around their

1326
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:40,041
star, and that's going to

1327
00:44:40,041 --> 00:44:42,000
have some telltale signs.

1328
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:43,166
So we could probably

1329
00:44:43,166 --> 00:44:45,375
find their home world.

1330
00:44:45,375 --> 00:44:46,458
And that would

1331
00:44:46,458 --> 00:44:49,333
confirm that they're there.

1332
00:44:49,333 --> 00:44:51,458
A stellar sibling, a home world with a

1333
00:44:51,458 --> 00:44:53,791
civilization around it, we would go, "Oh,

1334
00:44:53,791 --> 00:44:54,625
all the more? I guess

1335
00:44:54,625 --> 00:44:55,125
they're really here."

1336
00:44:56,250 --> 00:44:58,208
It won't reveal much about them other

1337
00:44:58,208 --> 00:44:59,833
than, say, the scale of their

1338
00:44:59,833 --> 00:45:01,291
civilization. We won't tell them about

1339
00:45:01,291 --> 00:45:03,083
their priorities or methods perhaps,

1340
00:45:03,083 --> 00:45:05,166
because we couldn't see very much.

1341
00:45:05,166 --> 00:45:07,458
But we could at least see that

1342
00:45:07,458 --> 00:45:08,916
there's a civilization there.

1343
00:45:08,916 --> 00:45:10,333
So this would be a bit of a—flipping

1344
00:45:10,333 --> 00:45:12,333
the script a little bit, instead of

1345
00:45:12,333 --> 00:45:14,375
trying to better understand what they're

1346
00:45:14,375 --> 00:45:17,083
telling us to look at in a sense, look

1347
00:45:17,083 --> 00:45:19,000
beyond that to try to get a sense of

1348
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:19,916
where they come from.

1349
00:45:20,666 --> 00:45:22,916
Just confirm that they really are there,

1350
00:45:22,916 --> 00:45:24,833
and they really have an advanced

1351
00:45:24,833 --> 00:45:26,125
civilization, how big it is.

1352
00:45:26,125 --> 00:45:28,833
I mean, for example, if you just dropped

1353
00:45:28,833 --> 00:45:30,833
a little bit of nuclear waste into a

1354
00:45:30,833 --> 00:45:33,000
star, we could see that in the stellar

1355
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,041
spectrum from a long way off.

1356
00:45:35,041 --> 00:45:38,125
So little things like that would probably

1357
00:45:38,125 --> 00:45:39,875
show us there's a civilization there.

1358
00:45:39,875 --> 00:45:41,958
It won't tell us that much about them,

1359
00:45:41,958 --> 00:45:43,458
but it confirms they exist.

1360
00:45:43,458 --> 00:45:44,541
And then we could look at the others and

1361
00:45:44,541 --> 00:45:46,666
see that there's only one probably and

1362
00:45:46,666 --> 00:45:47,916
confirm it's just the one.

1363
00:45:48,708 --> 00:45:51,583
Do we know if the James Webb Telescope

1364
00:45:51,583 --> 00:45:54,625
has any of these candidates, these

1365
00:45:54,625 --> 00:45:57,958
stellar nursery stars on its list?

1366
00:45:57,958 --> 00:46:00,875
I don't know. But again, it's probably

1367
00:46:00,875 --> 00:46:03,875
only a few of them. So the odds of

1368
00:46:03,875 --> 00:46:06,708
finding the one are probably low, but

1369
00:46:06,708 --> 00:46:07,916
might as well get started.

1370
00:46:09,625 --> 00:46:11,666
We might learn more about them, but it

1371
00:46:11,666 --> 00:46:14,041
does seem like the biggest thing to learn

1372
00:46:14,041 --> 00:46:19,500
here is if we learn, that is, can we

1373
00:46:19,500 --> 00:46:22,625
decide together that we've learned this

1374
00:46:22,625 --> 00:46:25,416
and to absorb all its implications?

1375
00:46:25,416 --> 00:46:28,250
It seems to me that this would change

1376
00:46:28,250 --> 00:46:30,666
civilization substantially if we came to

1377
00:46:30,666 --> 00:46:31,750
believe that this is

1378
00:46:31,750 --> 00:46:33,000
the situation we're in.

1379
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:34,916
What's stopping us from believing it now?

1380
00:46:36,666 --> 00:46:40,458
Well, that's a good question.

1381
00:46:40,458 --> 00:46:42,916
It's a social science puzzle in some

1382
00:46:42,916 --> 00:46:46,333
sense, why we aren't already persuaded.

1383
00:46:46,333 --> 00:46:48,500
I think most people out there hearing

1384
00:46:48,500 --> 00:46:49,875
this will think, well, just the evidence

1385
00:46:49,875 --> 00:46:50,875
isn't strong enough. You

1386
00:46:50,875 --> 00:46:53,458
just need more evidence.

1387
00:46:53,458 --> 00:46:56,333
I've got to say, as I've looked at the

1388
00:46:56,333 --> 00:46:58,250
evidence, there's an awful lot of cases

1389
00:46:58,250 --> 00:46:59,916
with an awful lot of evidence.

1390
00:47:00,833 --> 00:47:02,833
And yeah, I can see how you might want

1391
00:47:02,833 --> 00:47:04,416
even stronger evidence, but it's not

1392
00:47:04,416 --> 00:47:05,958
clear we're going to get that much

1393
00:47:05,958 --> 00:47:07,708
stronger evidence than the sort of

1394
00:47:07,708 --> 00:47:10,916
evidence we have, especially since the

1395
00:47:10,916 --> 00:47:12,666
evidence we have is often in a military

1396
00:47:12,666 --> 00:47:14,000
context where they're

1397
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:14,916
shy about revealing it.

1398
00:47:16,291 --> 00:47:23,083
So, yeah, I mean, it seems like it is a

1399
00:47:23,083 --> 00:47:24,500
sticking point for us. So there's

1400
00:47:24,500 --> 00:47:27,041
this—some political scientists who have

1401
00:47:27,041 --> 00:47:29,458
a theory about why we're so reluctant to

1402
00:47:29,458 --> 00:47:31,166
believe in UFOs,

1403
00:47:31,166 --> 00:47:32,375
especially why authorities are.

1404
00:47:32,375 --> 00:47:34,458
They basically say authorities feel

1405
00:47:34,458 --> 00:47:35,916
threatened by this hypothesis.

1406
00:47:36,458 --> 00:47:38,208
They're supposed to be in charge, and

1407
00:47:38,208 --> 00:47:40,041
this would say they're not in charge. And

1408
00:47:40,041 --> 00:47:42,125
we're supposed to sort of have humanity's

1409
00:47:42,125 --> 00:47:43,583
future in our own hands, and this would

1410
00:47:43,583 --> 00:47:45,208
say we don't really have our future in

1411
00:47:45,208 --> 00:47:48,083
our own hands, and that we so dislike

1412
00:47:48,083 --> 00:47:49,416
this hypothesis that we

1413
00:47:49,416 --> 00:47:52,250
refuse to consider it.

1414
00:47:52,250 --> 00:47:53,666
Not crazy, but I'm not sure I'm

1415
00:47:53,666 --> 00:47:55,541
persuaded. But there's

1416
00:47:55,541 --> 00:47:58,500
definitely an obstacle here.

1417
00:47:58,500 --> 00:48:00,541
That doesn't persuade you. How would you

1418
00:48:00,541 --> 00:48:02,416
add to it or build on it? So I feel like

1419
00:48:02,416 --> 00:48:04,291
you have a sense of it.

1420
00:48:05,208 --> 00:48:07,875
Right, so the thing I feel strongest in

1421
00:48:07,875 --> 00:48:09,791
saying, looking at the evidence, is just

1422
00:48:09,791 --> 00:48:11,500
that the honest

1423
00:48:11,500 --> 00:48:13,500
mistake theory doesn't work.

1424
00:48:13,500 --> 00:48:14,791
OK? So, I mean, we can

1425
00:48:14,791 --> 00:48:16,041
talk about your story.

1426
00:48:16,041 --> 00:48:18,375
Like, if I look at your story, I go,

1427
00:48:18,375 --> 00:48:20,291
"Some people are trying to say you made

1428
00:48:20,291 --> 00:48:22,083
an honest mistake because it was a bird

1429
00:48:22,083 --> 00:48:24,791
or a balloon or something, and, you know,

1430
00:48:24,791 --> 00:48:26,458
anybody could make an honest mistake, and

1431
00:48:26,458 --> 00:48:27,916
that's how it played out."

1432
00:48:28,458 --> 00:48:30,000
I think that's pretty unlikely in your

1433
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,333
case, but it's especially unlikely across

1434
00:48:32,333 --> 00:48:34,125
these hundreds of cases that

1435
00:48:34,125 --> 00:48:35,833
they're all honest mistakes.

1436
00:48:35,833 --> 00:48:37,000
That would be quite the

1437
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:38,458
statistical abnormality.

1438
00:48:39,500 --> 00:48:42,666
So then I got to go with one of the other

1439
00:48:42,666 --> 00:48:44,041
three theories we're talking about,

1440
00:48:44,041 --> 00:48:49,375
right? Either—and that's where I can't

1441
00:48:49,375 --> 00:48:53,958
be as sure, although honestly, like, the

1442
00:48:53,958 --> 00:48:55,208
hoax theory, the liar

1443
00:48:55,208 --> 00:48:57,916
theory, isn't crazy.

1444
00:48:58,250 --> 00:48:59,666
That's the next thing I would go to,

1445
00:48:59,666 --> 00:49:01,375
right, down the list, and I got to say,

1446
00:49:01,375 --> 00:49:05,208
"Well, what if some big organizations,

1447
00:49:05,208 --> 00:49:07,250
say, the U.S. intelligence or military,

1448
00:49:07,250 --> 00:49:09,458
wanted to set this up as a hoax?"

1449
00:49:09,458 --> 00:49:11,125
Right? And there would be a plausible

1450
00:49:11,125 --> 00:49:13,583
reason to do so. So we were in a Cold War

1451
00:49:13,583 --> 00:49:14,958
where they had, you know, thousands of

1452
00:49:14,958 --> 00:49:17,250
missiles trained at us, and if at some

1453
00:49:17,250 --> 00:49:18,416
point they thought they had the

1454
00:49:18,416 --> 00:49:19,583
advantage, they could push the button,

1455
00:49:19,583 --> 00:49:20,625
what we might want to do is just make

1456
00:49:20,625 --> 00:49:22,625
them hesitate by making them think

1457
00:49:22,625 --> 00:49:24,791
there's a third party who has opinions

1458
00:49:24,791 --> 00:49:25,791
about the situation.

1459
00:49:26,083 --> 00:49:27,583
Right? That might make them pause and go,

1460
00:49:27,583 --> 00:49:29,000
"Well, okay, we've got the advantage over

1461
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:30,583
the Americans, but do we have the

1462
00:49:30,583 --> 00:49:31,666
advantage over this third

1463
00:49:31,666 --> 00:49:32,625
party we don't know much about?"

1464
00:49:32,625 --> 00:49:34,750
So it might be worth spending billions of

1465
00:49:34,750 --> 00:49:37,375
dollars to create that sort of

1466
00:49:37,375 --> 00:49:39,208
uncertainty on the other part about

1467
00:49:39,208 --> 00:49:40,041
whether there's a third

1468
00:49:40,041 --> 00:49:42,041
party who might object.

1469
00:49:42,041 --> 00:49:44,083
Okay? So that would mean they would be

1470
00:49:44,083 --> 00:49:45,916
only willing to spend a lot to do that.

1471
00:49:46,333 --> 00:49:47,291
How would they spend that money? Well,

1472
00:49:47,291 --> 00:49:51,208
they would pay people like you to lie or

1473
00:49:51,208 --> 00:49:53,458
pay someone to fool you with, you know,

1474
00:49:53,458 --> 00:49:55,625
some elaborate thing that they mess with

1475
00:49:55,625 --> 00:49:57,833
your radar and mess with things they put

1476
00:49:57,833 --> 00:49:59,208
up in order to fool you.

1477
00:49:59,208 --> 00:50:00,708
And that would be possible, that you can

1478
00:50:00,708 --> 00:50:03,666
spend enough money to fool people.

1479
00:50:03,666 --> 00:50:06,041
And they could do that to our allies,

1480
00:50:06,041 --> 00:50:07,750
too, right? Maybe they could pay France

1481
00:50:07,750 --> 00:50:10,541
and Brazil and Peru or whatever to

1482
00:50:10,541 --> 00:50:11,625
somebody there to lie

1483
00:50:11,625 --> 00:50:12,916
and set up some fakes.

1484
00:50:13,458 --> 00:50:14,875
And you've got to go, "Well, what's the

1485
00:50:14,875 --> 00:50:17,083
prior probability on that?" And you've

1486
00:50:17,083 --> 00:50:19,291
got to go, "Look, the U.S. military did

1487
00:50:19,291 --> 00:50:21,583
some pretty amazing fakes during World

1488
00:50:21,583 --> 00:50:24,291
War II, and there's some other things

1489
00:50:24,291 --> 00:50:25,375
they've done a pretty good

1490
00:50:25,375 --> 00:50:26,583
job of faking and hiding."

1491
00:50:26,583 --> 00:50:28,000
And so you've got to go, "Maybe they

1492
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,875
might do that." And the thing that makes

1493
00:50:30,875 --> 00:50:32,416
me pause there is you go, "Well, there's

1494
00:50:32,416 --> 00:50:34,916
all these reports of UAPs within the

1495
00:50:34,916 --> 00:50:37,250
Soviet Union during the

1496
00:50:37,250 --> 00:50:37,916
height of the Cold War."

1497
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:39,458
And it's like they had whole projects and

1498
00:50:39,458 --> 00:50:41,083
they had whole sightings. Like, could the

1499
00:50:41,083 --> 00:50:45,208
U.S. have really arranged for a bunch of

1500
00:50:45,208 --> 00:50:47,000
Soviet people to lie about seeing these

1501
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:48,166
things and do a bunch

1502
00:50:48,166 --> 00:50:49,708
of fakes on Soviets?

1503
00:50:49,708 --> 00:50:51,000
Like, there's a case where apparently,

1504
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:53,833
you know, six jets went off to intercept

1505
00:50:53,833 --> 00:50:56,791
some UAP, and two of them went down.

1506
00:50:56,791 --> 00:50:58,083
Could the U.S. really have arranged

1507
00:50:58,083 --> 00:51:00,000
something like that? And I go, "That's

1508
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:01,750
kind of hard to believe," right?

1509
00:51:02,541 --> 00:51:04,000
But that's the kind of thing I'd have to

1510
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,208
believe, right? That's the next thing on

1511
00:51:06,208 --> 00:51:08,833
the list. If it's not honest mistakes,

1512
00:51:08,833 --> 00:51:10,958
there's a hoax and a lying campaign.

1513
00:51:10,958 --> 00:51:12,333
And that would be the most plausible

1514
00:51:12,333 --> 00:51:13,916
source, and that would be how they do it.

1515
00:51:13,916 --> 00:51:16,375
And the hardest case for them would be to

1516
00:51:16,375 --> 00:51:18,333
take the enemy they're trying to fool,

1517
00:51:18,333 --> 00:51:20,541
get inside their organization enough on a

1518
00:51:20,541 --> 00:51:22,625
pretty large scale to make a bunch of

1519
00:51:22,625 --> 00:51:24,833
fake things happening there.

1520
00:51:24,833 --> 00:51:28,166
That just seems a tall order. And these

1521
00:51:28,166 --> 00:51:29,250
things are reported all around

1522
00:51:29,250 --> 00:51:30,916
the world, even China, right?

1523
00:51:31,458 --> 00:51:32,166
And so that's the thing

1524
00:51:32,166 --> 00:51:35,333
that makes me go, "Eh."

1525
00:51:35,333 --> 00:51:37,208
In addition, this would have been an

1526
00:51:37,208 --> 00:51:39,416
unprecedentedly large, like, hoax

1527
00:51:39,416 --> 00:51:40,500
campaign over an

1528
00:51:40,500 --> 00:51:41,625
unprecedentedly large scale.

1529
00:51:41,625 --> 00:51:42,875
Yeah, and let's not forget you're talking

1530
00:51:42,875 --> 00:51:44,500
about, you know, Cold War area right now,

1531
00:51:44,500 --> 00:51:46,541
but then if we look and, you know, update

1532
00:51:46,541 --> 00:51:48,541
that for modern times and the logic

1533
00:51:48,541 --> 00:51:50,250
behind that, how would that change your

1534
00:51:50,250 --> 00:51:53,166
thought about this being a manipulative

1535
00:51:53,166 --> 00:51:54,333
scale that's now taken

1536
00:51:54,333 --> 00:51:55,916
itself all the way into the 2020s?

1537
00:51:56,375 --> 00:51:57,708
Well, again, the motive would still be

1538
00:51:57,708 --> 00:52:00,250
there. Just make the other side unsure if

1539
00:52:00,250 --> 00:52:01,041
there's a third party

1540
00:52:01,041 --> 00:52:02,708
who might object, right?

1541
00:52:02,708 --> 00:52:04,333
We still have a Cold War. We still are

1542
00:52:04,333 --> 00:52:06,500
worried about them pushing the button. So

1543
00:52:06,500 --> 00:52:07,208
they could still want to

1544
00:52:07,208 --> 00:52:09,833
keep the project going.

1545
00:52:09,833 --> 00:52:13,666
But, you know, maintaining the ability to

1546
00:52:13,666 --> 00:52:15,166
control behind the scenes, like, when

1547
00:52:15,166 --> 00:52:16,666
their entire government collapses and

1548
00:52:16,666 --> 00:52:18,541
they change their government radically,

1549
00:52:18,541 --> 00:52:19,750
still we would manage to keep these

1550
00:52:19,750 --> 00:52:20,833
things going. That

1551
00:52:20,833 --> 00:52:21,916
would be pretty amazing.

1552
00:52:22,208 --> 00:52:23,708
Yeah, it's nuanced at this point. So

1553
00:52:23,708 --> 00:52:25,958
then, you know, you're left with, it

1554
00:52:25,958 --> 00:52:29,416
sounds like, an unexplainable cohort of

1555
00:52:29,416 --> 00:52:30,333
observations that...

1556
00:52:30,333 --> 00:52:32,000
You're left believing there's something

1557
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:34,750
real with these really amazing abilities

1558
00:52:34,750 --> 00:52:36,083
that either comes from around here or

1559
00:52:36,083 --> 00:52:37,708
comes from somewhere else.

1560
00:52:37,708 --> 00:52:39,375
And now I've got to ask, what's the

1561
00:52:39,375 --> 00:52:41,666
chance there's some secret organization

1562
00:52:41,666 --> 00:52:43,291
on Earth, apparently not

1563
00:52:43,291 --> 00:52:44,916
the U.S. military, right?

1564
00:52:45,375 --> 00:52:47,000
Who could have these amazing ability

1565
00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:48,833
vehicles and then not use it to any

1566
00:52:48,833 --> 00:52:50,875
military or economic advantage, right?

1567
00:52:50,875 --> 00:52:53,000
Because these things are around for half

1568
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:54,083
a century, at least.

1569
00:52:54,083 --> 00:52:56,000
And you would think you could do enormous

1570
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,166
things if you had this technology. Look

1571
00:52:58,166 --> 00:52:59,791
at all the ways you could use it. And

1572
00:52:59,791 --> 00:53:00,291
apparently this

1573
00:53:00,291 --> 00:53:01,166
organization is not using it.

1574
00:53:01,166 --> 00:53:03,416
Do you think the U.S. would use it? So

1575
00:53:03,416 --> 00:53:05,041
I've stated that perhaps the U.S. would

1576
00:53:05,041 --> 00:53:07,541
not use it because they just would not

1577
00:53:07,541 --> 00:53:10,041
want to tip off other nations that there

1578
00:53:10,041 --> 00:53:12,333
was a "they're there" to explore,

1579
00:53:12,333 --> 00:53:13,750
technologically, perhaps.

1580
00:53:15,250 --> 00:53:18,208
Is that part of the calculus?

1581
00:53:18,208 --> 00:53:20,083
Well, they weren't exploring other techs.

1582
00:53:20,083 --> 00:53:22,791
So why that one? Why reserve that one and

1583
00:53:22,791 --> 00:53:23,708
not all the other ones, right?

1584
00:53:23,708 --> 00:53:26,000
Because we spent many billions of dollars

1585
00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:27,250
exploring a lot of techs, right?

1586
00:53:27,250 --> 00:53:29,291
If we had just stopped exploring tech,

1587
00:53:29,291 --> 00:53:30,083
because we found this one thing and I'd

1588
00:53:30,083 --> 00:53:31,875
say, "Oh, you know,

1589
00:53:31,875 --> 00:53:33,083
we've just got to slay them."

1590
00:53:33,083 --> 00:53:34,208
Maybe we weren't exploring. Maybe we

1591
00:53:34,208 --> 00:53:35,666
already knew that it was effective.

1592
00:53:35,666 --> 00:53:37,500
Right. But then why pay so much for all

1593
00:53:37,500 --> 00:53:39,708
the other worst techs? I mean, why not

1594
00:53:39,708 --> 00:53:41,250
just sit on this one tech you got and not

1595
00:53:41,250 --> 00:53:42,166
improve the other ones because you've

1596
00:53:42,166 --> 00:53:42,916
just got your arsenal, right?

1597
00:53:43,541 --> 00:53:45,250
You don't need anything

1598
00:53:45,250 --> 00:53:47,125
new. This thing works fine.

1599
00:53:47,125 --> 00:53:51,750
I'm not trying to play the counterpoint,

1600
00:53:51,750 --> 00:53:54,875
but I think about how China and Russia,

1601
00:53:54,875 --> 00:53:56,541
if that was the case, they would be

1602
00:53:56,541 --> 00:53:58,708
competing with what we know is

1603
00:53:58,708 --> 00:53:59,208
substandard technology.

1604
00:53:59,583 --> 00:54:03,791
And so we'd be essentially driving a

1605
00:54:03,791 --> 00:54:07,875
useless economic drain on their society,

1606
00:54:07,875 --> 00:54:09,708
thinking that they were economically or

1607
00:54:09,708 --> 00:54:11,833
militarily secure when in fact they

1608
00:54:11,833 --> 00:54:12,791
weren't that—I'm just

1609
00:54:12,791 --> 00:54:14,083
thinking aloud here, right?

1610
00:54:14,083 --> 00:54:16,666
But what I don't see is an incentive for

1611
00:54:16,666 --> 00:54:18,833
China or Russia or someone competing with

1612
00:54:18,833 --> 00:54:20,916
us to withhold that technology.

1613
00:54:20,916 --> 00:54:22,375
We have the advantage and it doesn't

1614
00:54:22,375 --> 00:54:23,833
make—it would make sense to keep it a

1615
00:54:23,833 --> 00:54:24,916
secret until absolutely needed.

1616
00:54:25,166 --> 00:54:27,125
But for other nations, it would make

1617
00:54:27,125 --> 00:54:28,291
sense for me for them to

1618
00:54:28,291 --> 00:54:29,583
integrate that into their economy.

1619
00:54:29,583 --> 00:54:31,666
Right. But if there have been UAP events

1620
00:54:31,666 --> 00:54:33,458
in Soviet Union, then we apparently have

1621
00:54:33,458 --> 00:54:35,708
been demonstrating this technology to the

1622
00:54:35,708 --> 00:54:36,791
Soviets in the Soviet Union.

1623
00:54:36,791 --> 00:54:38,375
So how is it we're trying to keep it

1624
00:54:38,375 --> 00:54:39,666
secret? We're apparently trying to let

1625
00:54:39,666 --> 00:54:41,708
them know it exists.

1626
00:54:41,708 --> 00:54:43,500
Well, I'm not claiming that all of the

1627
00:54:43,500 --> 00:54:45,000
sightings aren't necessarily technology.

1628
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:45,958
Right. But still,

1629
00:54:45,958 --> 00:54:48,500
there's been quite a few there.

1630
00:54:48,500 --> 00:54:51,833
You know, it's just a thought. OK.

1631
00:54:52,500 --> 00:54:54,041
But that's the second one you want to go

1632
00:54:54,041 --> 00:54:56,375
to, right? If you don't buy the honest

1633
00:54:56,375 --> 00:54:57,375
mistake theory, you've got

1634
00:54:57,375 --> 00:55:00,083
to go second to lies and oaks.

1635
00:55:00,083 --> 00:55:01,541
And then if that doesn't work, you've got

1636
00:55:01,541 --> 00:55:04,833
to go to amazing actual stuff.

1637
00:55:04,833 --> 00:55:07,125
And then the question is, you know, how

1638
00:55:07,125 --> 00:55:08,375
plausible is it there's an Earth

1639
00:55:08,375 --> 00:55:09,708
organization with sort of amazing stuff

1640
00:55:09,708 --> 00:55:11,791
that they could keep secret this long?

1641
00:55:11,791 --> 00:55:13,000
And that gets kind of hard to swallow,

1642
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:14,333
but then you've got the fourth one, OK?

1643
00:55:14,333 --> 00:55:16,250
It's aliens. And now you have

1644
00:55:16,250 --> 00:55:18,750
to ask, but how crazy is that?

1645
00:55:18,750 --> 00:55:19,833
And you've asked that question.

1646
00:55:19,833 --> 00:55:20,916
Right. I'm saying not that crazy.

1647
00:55:21,666 --> 00:55:22,958
Not as crazy as you might think.

1648
00:55:22,958 --> 00:55:24,291
Right. But crazy enough that you've got

1649
00:55:24,291 --> 00:55:25,583
to look at evidence.

1650
00:55:25,583 --> 00:55:26,333
That's why we're trying to

1651
00:55:26,333 --> 00:55:27,416
walk through the evidence.

1652
00:55:27,416 --> 00:55:28,541
But then you're trying

1653
00:55:28,541 --> 00:55:30,125
to judge these things.

1654
00:55:30,125 --> 00:55:31,833
So I think I mean, I'm happy to talk to

1655
00:55:31,833 --> 00:55:33,041
you, but I think I should always just

1656
00:55:33,041 --> 00:55:34,125
make clear what I'm an

1657
00:55:34,125 --> 00:55:35,916
expert on versus what I'm not.

1658
00:55:35,916 --> 00:55:38,083
Like, I'm not an expert on these cases.

1659
00:55:38,083 --> 00:55:39,791
I mean, there are people who have spent

1660
00:55:39,791 --> 00:55:40,875
their lifetime studying

1661
00:55:40,875 --> 00:55:42,500
these cases, and I respect that.

1662
00:55:42,500 --> 00:55:44,416
And I want to defer to them on these

1663
00:55:44,416 --> 00:55:45,916
cases. That's not my expertise.

1664
00:55:46,416 --> 00:55:48,791
My expertise is maybe on the sort of

1665
00:55:48,791 --> 00:55:50,250
where aliens might be in space, time and

1666
00:55:50,250 --> 00:55:51,750
what agendas they might have and then

1667
00:55:51,750 --> 00:55:53,208
what that implies for society.

1668
00:55:53,208 --> 00:55:55,333
I'm an economist. My specialty is more

1669
00:55:55,333 --> 00:55:56,541
the social science part of it.

1670
00:55:56,541 --> 00:55:58,375
So that's why I want to say that's the

1671
00:55:58,375 --> 00:56:00,166
thing I'm presenting to you as you should

1672
00:56:00,166 --> 00:56:01,291
believe me more because

1673
00:56:01,291 --> 00:56:03,041
that's where my expertise is.

1674
00:56:03,041 --> 00:56:05,750
But I don't want to just taboo the other

1675
00:56:05,750 --> 00:56:06,541
things and say nobody

1676
00:56:06,541 --> 00:56:07,291
should talk about them.

1677
00:56:07,291 --> 00:56:08,500
That's the thing I'm complaining about.

1678
00:56:08,500 --> 00:56:11,041
A part is the taboo here on the social

1679
00:56:11,041 --> 00:56:13,083
science implications.

1680
00:56:13,083 --> 00:56:13,708
Interesting.

1681
00:56:14,416 --> 00:56:18,541
So where are you in your personal model

1682
00:56:18,541 --> 00:56:23,458
on your belief of these options?

1683
00:56:23,458 --> 00:56:24,958
We've basically gone through, I think,

1684
00:56:24,958 --> 00:56:26,666
all of them more or less.

1685
00:56:26,666 --> 00:56:28,291
And you presented some as lower

1686
00:56:28,291 --> 00:56:29,041
probability and we're being

1687
00:56:29,041 --> 00:56:30,083
driven into this other world.

1688
00:56:30,083 --> 00:56:33,291
So are you now at the point in your

1689
00:56:33,291 --> 00:56:35,208
personal life that you've accepted this

1690
00:56:35,208 --> 00:56:37,000
as a high probability

1691
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:38,791
event worth exploring further?

1692
00:56:38,791 --> 00:56:39,958
I'm not going to say it's true or not.

1693
00:56:39,958 --> 00:56:41,625
It's high enough to be worth exploring.

1694
00:56:42,125 --> 00:56:43,291
So that leaves me in a position of

1695
00:56:43,291 --> 00:56:46,500
saying, OK, what if some UFOs are aliens?

1696
00:56:46,500 --> 00:56:48,625
I've got to go there. I've got to say,

1697
00:56:48,625 --> 00:56:50,916
what does that imply about our world?

1698
00:56:50,916 --> 00:56:52,833
That seems to me the sort of thing I'm

1699
00:56:52,833 --> 00:56:55,541
compelled to do once it seems serious

1700
00:56:55,541 --> 00:56:57,291
enough that it's earned

1701
00:56:57,291 --> 00:56:58,916
the right to be considered.

1702
00:56:58,916 --> 00:57:01,208
The prior is high enough to earn the

1703
00:57:01,208 --> 00:57:02,208
right to be considered and

1704
00:57:02,208 --> 00:57:05,166
the evidence isn't crazy bad.

1705
00:57:05,166 --> 00:57:06,958
I'm not going to give you an exact

1706
00:57:06,958 --> 00:57:08,500
probability for how believable, but it's

1707
00:57:08,500 --> 00:57:10,416
high enough that you've got to take it

1708
00:57:10,416 --> 00:57:10,916
seriously, just like the murder trial.

1709
00:57:11,500 --> 00:57:13,541
You've got to listen to the trial.

1710
00:57:13,541 --> 00:57:15,166
So you've got to ask what would happen if

1711
00:57:15,166 --> 00:57:17,083
we convicted this guy?

1712
00:57:17,083 --> 00:57:18,583
What would we do with him?

1713
00:57:18,583 --> 00:57:20,166
When you start a murder trial, you have

1714
00:57:20,166 --> 00:57:21,291
to have that in your mind.

1715
00:57:21,291 --> 00:57:22,583
The implications of the decision.

1716
00:57:22,583 --> 00:57:23,916
What would we do if we

1717
00:57:23,916 --> 00:57:25,333
had the answer to that?

1718
00:57:25,333 --> 00:57:27,250
So I've got to say, what would we

1719
00:57:27,250 --> 00:57:28,375
conclude now if we

1720
00:57:28,375 --> 00:57:30,625
decided some UFOs are aliens?

1721
00:57:30,625 --> 00:57:32,333
And it's a pretty

1722
00:57:32,333 --> 00:57:34,541
dramatic change in worldview.

1723
00:57:35,500 --> 00:57:37,500
So, you know, roughly we could say the

1724
00:57:37,500 --> 00:57:41,041
ancients saw themselves as not the

1725
00:57:41,041 --> 00:57:42,750
biggest creatures around.

1726
00:57:42,750 --> 00:57:44,000
They had gods above them,

1727
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:45,916
even emperors above them.

1728
00:57:45,916 --> 00:57:48,250
And there was whole realms above them.

1729
00:57:48,250 --> 00:57:50,000
And they had their place in their realm

1730
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:51,833
and they did not have the future of the

1731
00:57:51,833 --> 00:57:53,166
universe in their hands.

1732
00:57:53,166 --> 00:57:54,541
That's not how they saw themselves.

1733
00:57:54,541 --> 00:57:55,833
They had the future of their city in

1734
00:57:55,833 --> 00:57:59,166
their hands or their family, their war

1735
00:57:59,166 --> 00:57:59,916
maybe in their hands.

1736
00:57:59,916 --> 00:58:01,500
They did not have the future of the

1737
00:58:01,500 --> 00:58:02,000
universe in their hands.

1738
00:58:02,458 --> 00:58:04,958
That was not something they

1739
00:58:04,958 --> 00:58:07,291
thought was plausible, right?

1740
00:58:07,291 --> 00:58:09,166
We over time have decided that the gods

1741
00:58:09,166 --> 00:58:12,166
they saw above them don't exist.

1742
00:58:12,166 --> 00:58:14,541
And we're the top thing around.

1743
00:58:14,541 --> 00:58:16,291
And our universe looks completely empty.

1744
00:58:16,291 --> 00:58:18,541
And so we're tempted to say, all this

1745
00:58:18,541 --> 00:58:19,333
stuff we can see,

1746
00:58:19,333 --> 00:58:21,958
it's all our inheritance.

1747
00:58:21,958 --> 00:58:23,666
We eventually, if we so choose, can go

1748
00:58:23,666 --> 00:58:24,625
out and do whatever we

1749
00:58:24,625 --> 00:58:26,083
want with all of them.

1750
00:58:26,083 --> 00:58:26,750
That's who we are.

1751
00:58:26,750 --> 00:58:27,791
We are the top dog.

1752
00:58:27,791 --> 00:58:29,625
We are the top of our world.

1753
00:58:29,625 --> 00:58:30,916
And we have an enormous potential future.

1754
00:58:31,500 --> 00:58:32,750
That's pretty exciting.

1755
00:58:32,750 --> 00:58:33,708
And I've really gotten

1756
00:58:33,708 --> 00:58:34,375
into that in my life.

1757
00:58:34,375 --> 00:58:35,458
I'm a bit of a futurist.

1758
00:58:35,458 --> 00:58:37,375
I've written about future possibilities.

1759
00:58:37,375 --> 00:58:38,458
And that's one of the things that makes

1760
00:58:38,458 --> 00:58:40,041
it exciting to think about the future.

1761
00:58:40,041 --> 00:58:41,666
Look at all the places we could go and

1762
00:58:41,666 --> 00:58:43,458
all the things we could do.

1763
00:58:43,458 --> 00:58:45,458
And that means that we today have this

1764
00:58:45,458 --> 00:58:46,333
huge responsibility.

1765
00:58:46,333 --> 00:58:48,958
If choices we make today might influence

1766
00:58:48,958 --> 00:58:51,166
these future directions, then we've got

1767
00:58:51,166 --> 00:58:52,875
to take that seriously, right?

1768
00:58:52,875 --> 00:58:53,875
And I have tried to do that.

1769
00:58:53,875 --> 00:58:54,500
And I'm around other

1770
00:58:54,500 --> 00:58:55,208
people who take that seriously.

1771
00:58:55,208 --> 00:58:58,083
It's very energizing, right, to think

1772
00:58:58,083 --> 00:58:58,916
you're the ruler of the universe

1773
00:58:59,500 --> 00:59:01,416
and responsible for making really big

1774
00:59:01,416 --> 00:59:03,416
decisions about it, right?

1775
00:59:03,416 --> 00:59:05,958
And now we learn, well, you thought you

1776
00:59:05,958 --> 00:59:07,083
were going to be king.

1777
00:59:07,083 --> 00:59:10,791
You're the king's younger brother.

1778
00:59:10,791 --> 00:59:12,500
You're not the king.

1779
00:59:12,500 --> 00:59:12,916
And you know what?

1780
00:59:12,916 --> 00:59:15,666
The king thinks that you should live on a

1781
00:59:15,666 --> 00:59:17,666
little cottage in the back of his estate

1782
00:59:17,666 --> 00:59:19,541
and stay there and not bother anybody and

1783
00:59:19,541 --> 00:59:20,291
certainly not get

1784
00:59:20,291 --> 00:59:23,333
involved in the king's politics.

1785
00:59:23,333 --> 00:59:25,500
That's who you are.

1786
00:59:25,500 --> 00:59:26,416
You thought you were king.

1787
00:59:26,416 --> 00:59:26,916
You didn't know you had an older brother.

1788
00:59:27,791 --> 00:59:29,083
You thought you were going to rule the

1789
00:59:29,083 --> 00:59:32,375
kingdom, but you're not.

1790
00:59:32,375 --> 00:59:35,583
And now how do you come to terms with

1791
00:59:35,583 --> 00:59:37,166
making the best you can about your estate

1792
00:59:37,166 --> 00:59:39,791
in the back of the king's forest?

1793
00:59:39,791 --> 00:59:41,125
I mean, it's a better than most people

1794
00:59:41,125 --> 00:59:42,958
have, honestly, right?

1795
00:59:42,958 --> 00:59:44,916
Being a brother of the king has some

1796
00:59:44,916 --> 00:59:45,875
perks as long as you make

1797
00:59:45,875 --> 00:59:48,666
sure you show fealty to the king.

1798
00:59:48,666 --> 00:59:50,208
But there's some things you could do that

1799
00:59:50,208 --> 00:59:52,375
might threaten the king, and then he

1800
00:59:52,375 --> 00:59:54,916
might eliminate you.

1801
00:59:54,916 --> 00:59:55,708
Or lock you in a

1802
00:59:55,708 --> 00:59:56,208
dungeon or something, right?

1803
00:59:56,833 --> 00:59:59,083
That's where we are, right?

1804
00:59:59,083 --> 01:00:00,875
So now we say, "We're not

1805
01:00:00,875 --> 01:00:02,500
the ruler of this universe.

1806
01:00:02,500 --> 01:00:05,333
There's another power around who, like

1807
01:00:05,333 --> 01:00:09,000
the king, isn't trying to help us.

1808
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:11,125
They're not like buddy-buddy and like,

1809
01:00:11,125 --> 01:00:12,291
"Look out. I look out for

1810
01:00:12,291 --> 01:00:13,166
you. You look out for me."

1811
01:00:13,166 --> 01:00:14,458
That's the kind of

1812
01:00:14,458 --> 01:00:17,958
relationship they've pitched us, right?

1813
01:00:17,958 --> 01:00:19,666
Their relation is, "We're on top. You're

1814
01:00:19,666 --> 01:00:20,375
down. You should find

1815
01:00:20,375 --> 01:00:21,041
this really obvious.

1816
01:00:21,041 --> 01:00:21,583
You should just

1817
01:00:21,583 --> 01:00:23,250
submit and do what we say.

1818
01:00:23,250 --> 01:00:24,125
We are the king. You

1819
01:00:24,125 --> 01:00:24,916
are the king's brother."

1820
01:00:26,500 --> 01:00:29,083
And that's where we are, right?

1821
01:00:29,083 --> 01:00:31,583
And now your main relationship with them

1822
01:00:31,583 --> 01:00:32,875
is just knowing in the background,

1823
01:00:32,875 --> 01:00:33,958
"They're not going to help you, but if

1824
01:00:33,958 --> 01:00:34,625
you cross a line,

1825
01:00:34,625 --> 01:00:37,708
they're going to squash you."

1826
01:00:37,708 --> 01:00:39,291
That's where you are.

1827
01:00:39,291 --> 01:00:44,041
And how has that updated your worldview?

1828
01:00:44,041 --> 01:00:44,833
Or has it?

1829
01:00:44,833 --> 01:00:46,833
Well, it means you have to sort of pull

1830
01:00:46,833 --> 01:00:47,916
in the scope of your

1831
01:00:47,916 --> 01:00:49,916
ambitions in some sense, right?

1832
01:00:50,875 --> 01:00:54,291
I mean, we still have a—even under the

1833
01:00:54,291 --> 01:00:55,458
worst scenario here, we've got a whole

1834
01:00:55,458 --> 01:00:57,125
solar system we can colonize

1835
01:00:57,125 --> 01:01:00,458
and take advantage of and fill and do

1836
01:01:00,458 --> 01:01:01,125
interesting things with.

1837
01:01:01,125 --> 01:01:03,708
We have a big future, just not as big as

1838
01:01:03,708 --> 01:01:06,416
you otherwise would.

1839
01:01:06,416 --> 01:01:09,000
I don't know if it would. Yeah, I agree.

1840
01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:10,416
It limits our possibilities.

1841
01:01:10,416 --> 01:01:11,500
I don't know if it necessarily has to

1842
01:01:11,500 --> 01:01:14,000
limit our ambition perhaps, but—

1843
01:01:14,000 --> 01:01:15,666
Well, of course, you come to the point,

1844
01:01:15,666 --> 01:01:16,916
could we defy them? Right?

1845
01:01:17,125 --> 01:01:20,291
That may be the first instinct, okay?

1846
01:01:20,291 --> 01:01:21,750
The king's brother might think, "Well,

1847
01:01:21,750 --> 01:01:23,208
could I sneak off and

1848
01:01:23,208 --> 01:01:24,291
talk to some other barons

1849
01:01:24,291 --> 01:01:27,291
and maybe get a resistance going here and

1850
01:01:27,291 --> 01:01:30,041
depose the king and take over?"

1851
01:01:30,041 --> 01:01:32,125
And now you're thinking, "Okay, look,

1852
01:01:32,125 --> 01:01:33,541
they're 100 million years

1853
01:01:33,541 --> 01:01:36,666
more advanced, right, or more.

1854
01:01:36,666 --> 01:01:39,875
What chance do you think you had?"

1855
01:01:39,875 --> 01:01:41,750
But, okay, there is more

1856
01:01:41,750 --> 01:01:45,916
of a chance, so there's rot.

1857
01:01:47,041 --> 01:01:52,416
So in our history, empires, firms,

1858
01:01:52,416 --> 01:01:54,958
families, they've often rotted.

1859
01:01:54,958 --> 01:01:58,000
That is, they grew for a while, and then

1860
01:01:58,000 --> 01:01:59,708
they stopped growing

1861
01:01:59,708 --> 01:02:01,916
and declined and collapsed

1862
01:02:01,916 --> 01:02:02,958
and were replaced by new things.

1863
01:02:02,958 --> 01:02:04,750
And in fact, this is the

1864
01:02:04,750 --> 01:02:06,041
history of biology, basically.

1865
01:02:06,041 --> 01:02:08,166
All organisms rot and die and are

1866
01:02:08,166 --> 01:02:09,250
replaced by new organisms.

1867
01:02:09,250 --> 01:02:11,333
Species even rot.

1868
01:02:11,333 --> 01:02:13,541
We know—and software rots, and we have

1869
01:02:13,541 --> 01:02:14,375
to replace software all

1870
01:02:14,375 --> 01:02:14,916
the time with new stuff.

1871
01:02:15,250 --> 01:02:18,125
And so basically, either you have a world

1872
01:02:18,125 --> 01:02:19,875
where things just keep

1873
01:02:19,875 --> 01:02:22,041
getting replaced with new versions,

1874
01:02:22,041 --> 01:02:23,666
or if you maintain an old

1875
01:02:23,666 --> 01:02:25,666
version long enough, it rots.

1876
01:02:25,666 --> 01:02:28,291
So the question is, if they locked down

1877
01:02:28,291 --> 01:02:30,291
their border and said nobody could leave

1878
01:02:30,291 --> 01:02:31,958
and they had some central governance to

1879
01:02:31,958 --> 01:02:33,041
maintain that, could they

1880
01:02:33,041 --> 01:02:34,791
prevent it from rotting?

1881
01:02:34,791 --> 01:02:36,208
Could they prevent it from slowly

1882
01:02:36,208 --> 01:02:37,291
declining over time and

1883
01:02:37,291 --> 01:02:38,791
becoming less capable?

1884
01:02:38,791 --> 01:02:40,625
And after 100 million years,

1885
01:02:40,625 --> 01:02:41,916
how much rot could they have?

1886
01:02:42,583 --> 01:02:44,125
I guess that would be the second most

1887
01:02:44,125 --> 01:02:46,833
important problem to solve after ensuring

1888
01:02:46,833 --> 01:02:49,833
that you don't have accidental expansion.

1889
01:02:49,833 --> 01:02:51,958
Right.
We need to make sure we don't break their

1890
01:02:51,958 --> 01:02:54,333
rule or do so observed.

1891
01:02:54,333 --> 01:02:56,416
Well, if the biggest thing is to not

1892
01:02:56,416 --> 01:02:58,500
expand and grow, the next thing is,

1893
01:02:58,500 --> 01:03:00,166
how do you stop yourself from stagnating

1894
01:03:00,166 --> 01:03:00,833
or destroying

1895
01:03:00,833 --> 01:03:01,833
yourself without that growth?

1896
01:03:01,833 --> 01:03:03,125
At least that's our question, because

1897
01:03:03,125 --> 01:03:04,375
that's how our natural—

1898
01:03:04,375 --> 01:03:06,291
Sure.
Yeah, I was thinking more in terms of,

1899
01:03:06,291 --> 01:03:08,625
well, how good are they at preventing us

1900
01:03:08,625 --> 01:03:10,000
from expanding or

1901
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:10,916
watching for us to expand?

1902
01:03:11,250 --> 01:03:12,333
Well, isn't the assumption that they're

1903
01:03:12,333 --> 01:03:14,000
100% good at it because

1904
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:14,333
they've gone into themselves?

1905
01:03:14,333 --> 01:03:15,791
Well, they were 100 million years ago,

1906
01:03:15,791 --> 01:03:17,708
but if they've been rotting since then,

1907
01:03:17,708 --> 01:03:18,666
how far could their

1908
01:03:18,666 --> 01:03:19,791
abilities have declined?

1909
01:03:19,791 --> 01:03:21,416
Have you integrated any type of

1910
01:03:21,416 --> 01:03:23,916
degradation into your model?

1911
01:03:23,916 --> 01:03:26,333
Well, you'd have to say, well, these UAPs

1912
01:03:26,333 --> 01:03:28,708
are showing abilities, and you have to

1913
01:03:28,708 --> 01:03:30,083
assume, okay, those are live abilities.

1914
01:03:30,083 --> 01:03:31,791
They have those now.

1915
01:03:31,791 --> 01:03:33,375
But how much do they understand them?

1916
01:03:33,375 --> 01:03:35,000
Could they have inherited stuff from long

1917
01:03:35,000 --> 01:03:36,625
ago they don't understand anymore,

1918
01:03:36,625 --> 01:03:38,916
couldn't really modify substantially?

1919
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:42,583
That would be an extreme rot scenario

1920
01:03:42,583 --> 01:03:44,458
where they just have stuff they

1921
01:03:44,458 --> 01:03:45,625
inherited, but they can't

1922
01:03:45,625 --> 01:03:48,250
really manage it so well anymore.

1923
01:03:48,250 --> 01:03:49,166
Sounds like a situation

1924
01:03:49,166 --> 01:03:50,958
we could find ourselves in.

1925
01:03:50,958 --> 01:03:52,875
Well, we might become later on.

1926
01:03:52,875 --> 01:03:56,000
If they induce us to have the central

1927
01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:57,916
thing that lasts in rots, then we would

1928
01:03:57,916 --> 01:03:58,500
eventually have that problem.

1929
01:03:58,500 --> 01:03:59,958
But at the moment, we might think,

1930
01:03:59,958 --> 01:04:02,875
there's an opening here to slip away, if

1931
01:04:02,875 --> 01:04:05,041
only we can get them to

1932
01:04:05,041 --> 01:04:06,916
sort of misjudge our abilities.

1933
01:04:08,458 --> 01:04:10,666
So the question is like, how thoroughly

1934
01:04:10,666 --> 01:04:11,833
are they monitoring our

1935
01:04:11,833 --> 01:04:13,833
frontier for anything leaving?

1936
01:04:13,833 --> 01:04:15,791
How thoroughly are they monitoring us

1937
01:04:15,791 --> 01:04:17,000
from sending anything out?

1938
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:21,833
We just have to slip one kilogram slowly

1939
01:04:21,833 --> 01:04:23,875
out of the solar system off to another

1940
01:04:23,875 --> 01:04:27,166
star system far away to break their rule.

1941
01:04:27,166 --> 01:04:29,666
It has to be one kilogram containing much

1942
01:04:29,666 --> 01:04:32,125
more advanced tech than we have now, but

1943
01:04:32,125 --> 01:04:33,666
that's all it would take.

1944
01:04:33,666 --> 01:04:34,166
What about ideas?

1945
01:04:34,666 --> 01:04:36,500
Do you think ideas can be

1946
01:04:36,500 --> 01:04:38,916
expansionary in this context?

1947
01:04:38,916 --> 01:04:39,958
So if we were to beave an

1948
01:04:39,958 --> 01:04:41,958
AI somewhere, that would—

1949
01:04:41,958 --> 01:04:43,583
So this one kilogram would

1950
01:04:43,583 --> 01:04:45,708
contain an AI, say, right?

1951
01:04:45,708 --> 01:04:47,583
Because if you could put a powerful AI in

1952
01:04:47,583 --> 01:04:49,458
one kilogram and slip it

1953
01:04:49,458 --> 01:04:51,250
away, dark and unnoticed,

1954
01:04:51,250 --> 01:04:53,291
and this one kilogram could then land

1955
01:04:53,291 --> 01:04:54,833
somewhere else in a million years and

1956
01:04:54,833 --> 01:04:57,208
then start growing and making a new

1957
01:04:57,208 --> 01:04:59,041
civilization worth its memory of us, that

1958
01:04:59,041 --> 01:05:01,875
would be a way to escape their rules.

1959
01:05:02,375 --> 01:05:03,958
And now the question is, could they

1960
01:05:03,958 --> 01:05:05,833
really have such a thorough monitoring of

1961
01:05:05,833 --> 01:05:08,750
us that they could see just one kilogram

1962
01:05:08,750 --> 01:05:10,041
dark rock slip away?

1963
01:05:10,041 --> 01:05:12,166
Or transmission?

1964
01:05:12,166 --> 01:05:14,500
Well, if you put something somewhere

1965
01:05:14,500 --> 01:05:15,916
else, then you could make a transmission

1966
01:05:15,916 --> 01:05:18,375
to it, but there has to be a receiver at

1967
01:05:18,375 --> 01:05:19,666
the other end first.

1968
01:05:19,666 --> 01:05:20,333
I'm assuming they're

1969
01:05:20,333 --> 01:05:21,708
more clever than us on that.

1970
01:05:21,708 --> 01:05:25,458
So then could we develop, say, an AI out

1971
01:05:25,458 --> 01:05:26,833
of their view so they

1972
01:05:26,833 --> 01:05:28,541
didn't even know we have it?

1973
01:05:28,541 --> 01:05:30,375
And then we could slip it into this rock

1974
01:05:30,375 --> 01:05:30,916
and slip it away, right?

1975
01:05:31,500 --> 01:05:32,708
It's a really long

1976
01:05:32,708 --> 01:05:34,333
shot strategy, honestly.

1977
01:05:34,333 --> 01:05:35,625
But if you're thinking of resisting,

1978
01:05:35,625 --> 01:05:36,208
that's the sort of thing

1979
01:05:36,208 --> 01:05:37,875
you have to be thinking about.

1980
01:05:37,875 --> 01:05:39,625
Because remember, how 100 million years,

1981
01:05:39,625 --> 01:05:41,875
more advanced. Come on.

1982
01:05:41,875 --> 01:05:43,916
Well, let's talk about a little, maybe

1983
01:05:43,916 --> 01:05:45,791
simpler type of resistance, which would

1984
01:05:45,791 --> 01:05:48,333
be attempting to learn

1985
01:05:48,333 --> 01:05:49,333
anything you could about it.

1986
01:05:49,333 --> 01:05:53,041
Because any osmosis of technology or

1987
01:05:53,041 --> 01:05:55,416
understanding would be that, you know, an

1988
01:05:55,416 --> 01:05:57,250
attack vector, if you will, or at least a

1989
01:05:57,250 --> 01:05:59,541
vector to pose a threat at

1990
01:05:59,541 --> 01:06:00,041
some point in the future.

1991
01:06:00,958 --> 01:06:03,375
So the simplest would just be

1992
01:06:03,375 --> 01:06:04,041
acknowledgement, I would

1993
01:06:04,041 --> 01:06:06,000
think, that this is here.

1994
01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:08,083
It does seem like if we believe they were

1995
01:06:08,083 --> 01:06:11,375
here and we coordinated to watch every

1996
01:06:11,375 --> 01:06:13,250
event, we would presumably collect a lot

1997
01:06:13,250 --> 01:06:14,750
more information on these events.

1998
01:06:14,750 --> 01:06:16,750
So I think I had a rest of estimate of

1999
01:06:16,750 --> 01:06:19,541
like at least 100,000 UFO reports in the

2000
01:06:19,541 --> 01:06:22,666
last century or whatever, and maybe even

2001
01:06:22,666 --> 01:06:23,916
a million that weren't reported.

2002
01:06:24,708 --> 01:06:27,541
So clearly, if we were believing these

2003
01:06:27,541 --> 01:06:29,333
things were real and just setting

2004
01:06:29,333 --> 01:06:31,166
ourselves up to get as much information

2005
01:06:31,166 --> 01:06:33,666
on them as we could, we would get more.

2006
01:06:33,666 --> 01:06:35,291
The question is, would it

2007
01:06:35,291 --> 01:06:37,750
be enough? For what purpose?

2008
01:06:37,750 --> 01:06:40,750
Because remember, they're anticipating

2009
01:06:40,750 --> 01:06:42,125
that we're going to try to learn about

2010
01:06:42,125 --> 01:06:43,291
them, and they're trying

2011
01:06:43,291 --> 01:06:45,250
not to reveal too much.

2012
01:06:45,250 --> 01:06:46,958
So in this cat and mouse

2013
01:06:46,958 --> 01:06:49,458
game, do you feel lucky, punk?

2014
01:06:50,333 --> 01:06:52,541
So part of the question would be, how

2015
01:06:52,541 --> 01:06:54,708
much are they adapting their behavior to

2016
01:06:54,708 --> 01:06:56,041
their estimates of our abilities?

2017
01:06:56,041 --> 01:06:57,250
So that's one of the

2018
01:06:57,250 --> 01:06:58,291
interesting things to ask here.

2019
01:06:58,291 --> 01:07:00,291
So some people have said, oh, as cell

2020
01:07:00,291 --> 01:07:01,541
phones have got more common, we don't

2021
01:07:01,541 --> 01:07:04,583
have proportionally more UAP reports, and

2022
01:07:04,583 --> 01:07:07,000
therefore this is all hoax or this is all

2023
01:07:07,000 --> 01:07:07,916
hallucinations, right?

2024
01:07:08,333 --> 01:07:12,041
But if they are adapting how far away

2025
01:07:12,041 --> 01:07:14,208
they are from us to how far they think we

2026
01:07:14,208 --> 01:07:18,666
can see, then they will recede as we look

2027
01:07:18,666 --> 01:07:20,041
more carefully, right?

2028
01:07:20,041 --> 01:07:22,041
That's an idea that I've heard

2029
01:07:22,041 --> 01:07:23,083
communicated before.

2030
01:07:23,083 --> 01:07:25,208
As we get better tools to better

2031
01:07:25,208 --> 01:07:26,666
understand them, they become less

2032
01:07:26,666 --> 01:07:28,916
effective shortly

2033
01:07:28,916 --> 01:07:29,916
afterwards, you could say.

2034
01:07:30,250 --> 01:07:33,666
Right. But I mean, they have apparently,

2035
01:07:33,666 --> 01:07:35,875
if UAP reports are to be leaked, they

2036
01:07:35,875 --> 01:07:37,416
have revealed quite a bit about

2037
01:07:37,416 --> 01:07:39,333
themselves, and apparently they don't

2038
01:07:39,333 --> 01:07:42,916
think that's much of a risk.

2039
01:07:42,916 --> 01:07:45,791
I guess one thing we can already notice

2040
01:07:45,791 --> 01:07:48,416
from what we already know is that they

2041
01:07:48,416 --> 01:07:50,500
are willing to show us in a

2042
01:07:50,500 --> 01:07:51,916
wide range of forms, right?

2043
01:07:52,125 --> 01:07:54,916
There were just like the one flying

2044
01:07:54,916 --> 01:07:56,083
saucer or whatever, and everything was

2045
01:07:56,083 --> 01:07:58,416
that one shape. Well, you might try to

2046
01:07:58,416 --> 01:07:59,291
draw more conclusions

2047
01:07:59,291 --> 01:08:00,625
from that one shape, right?

2048
01:08:00,625 --> 01:08:04,791
But there's a wide range of stuff, and—

2049
01:08:04,791 --> 01:08:05,583
Do you think it's one

2050
01:08:05,583 --> 01:08:07,583
actor or one group of actors?

2051
01:08:07,583 --> 01:08:09,666
Well, under this whole story, it would

2052
01:08:09,666 --> 01:08:12,708
have to be one authority of the

2053
01:08:12,708 --> 01:08:14,916
expedition, right, who keeps this

2054
01:08:14,916 --> 01:08:17,125
expedition from going rogue.

2055
01:08:17,125 --> 01:08:18,875
So however many parts it has, there has

2056
01:08:18,875 --> 01:08:20,916
to be one part that's limiting it.

2057
01:08:21,708 --> 01:08:24,250
Do you feel that the observations of many

2058
01:08:24,250 --> 01:08:26,375
shapes strengthens or weakens your

2059
01:08:26,375 --> 01:08:29,250
argument, or the model?

2060
01:08:29,250 --> 01:08:30,916
I guess is really what I'm getting at.

2061
01:08:30,916 --> 01:08:35,666
Well, it seems to be a way

2062
01:08:35,666 --> 01:08:38,833
to hide, I would think—

2063
01:08:38,833 --> 01:08:39,583
That could be part of

2064
01:08:39,583 --> 01:08:40,833
the edge of perception.

2065
01:08:40,833 --> 01:08:42,541
Right. Basically, if they just give you a

2066
01:08:42,541 --> 01:08:44,041
whole bunch of different shapes and

2067
01:08:44,041 --> 01:08:45,666
contexts, you can't draw as many

2068
01:08:45,666 --> 01:08:46,166
conclusions from it, right?

2069
01:08:47,208 --> 01:08:48,833
Unless you could find the part of the

2070
01:08:48,833 --> 01:08:49,750
parameter—well, they never do these

2071
01:08:49,750 --> 01:08:51,041
sorts of things. That's got to tell you

2072
01:08:51,041 --> 01:08:53,291
something maybe, but

2073
01:08:53,291 --> 01:08:56,416
otherwise it looks like they're—

2074
01:08:56,416 --> 01:08:58,666
Now, one of the things that happens in

2075
01:08:58,666 --> 01:09:01,333
this UAP space is people point to then a

2076
01:09:01,333 --> 01:09:02,750
whole world of what they call the

2077
01:09:02,750 --> 01:09:04,833
paranormal, and they say, "Well, if

2078
01:09:04,833 --> 01:09:06,083
you're going to believe this, maybe you

2079
01:09:06,083 --> 01:09:06,958
got to take all that

2080
01:09:06,958 --> 01:09:07,916
other stuff seriously."

2081
01:09:08,250 --> 01:09:09,791
And then they say, "Well, maybe the

2082
01:09:09,791 --> 01:09:11,333
aliens, if they're doing the UAPs, are

2083
01:09:11,333 --> 01:09:13,166
also doing the ghosts, and they're also

2084
01:09:13,166 --> 01:09:14,166
doing the telepathy."

2085
01:09:14,166 --> 01:09:16,750
And all the other things people point to

2086
01:09:16,750 --> 01:09:18,333
as paranormal phenomena,

2087
01:09:18,333 --> 01:09:19,458
they want to tie that in.

2088
01:09:19,458 --> 01:09:23,500
And of course, if you are believing in

2089
01:09:23,500 --> 01:09:25,083
UAPs but not the other stuff, you're

2090
01:09:25,083 --> 01:09:26,416
trying to draw a line and

2091
01:09:26,416 --> 01:09:28,666
resist that sort of merging.

2092
01:09:29,041 --> 01:09:32,125
But then there's the abduction stories,

2093
01:09:32,125 --> 01:09:33,250
and then there's the stories where the

2094
01:09:33,250 --> 01:09:36,000
UAPs show up in physical form with a

2095
01:09:36,000 --> 01:09:40,125
body. And that's a hard question here.

2096
01:09:40,125 --> 01:09:42,000
Even if I'm convinced there's something

2097
01:09:42,000 --> 01:09:44,458
going on here, I'm not necessarily going

2098
01:09:44,458 --> 01:09:45,791
to go all the way down the line and

2099
01:09:45,791 --> 01:09:47,791
embrace all paranormal

2100
01:09:47,791 --> 01:09:49,541
phenomena as part of the same thing.

2101
01:09:49,541 --> 01:09:51,833
But then there is the honest question,

2102
01:09:51,833 --> 01:09:52,500
"Well, where are you

2103
01:09:52,500 --> 01:09:53,875
going to draw this line?"

2104
01:09:53,875 --> 01:09:56,416
It's a constant line drawing I found.

2105
01:09:57,208 --> 01:09:59,750
Yeah, but I mean, I don't think I want to

2106
01:09:59,750 --> 01:10:02,125
embrace all paranormal phenomena as

2107
01:10:02,125 --> 01:10:04,833
aliens in different forms.

2108
01:10:04,833 --> 01:10:06,833
And I got to say, like, if I go look for

2109
01:10:06,833 --> 01:10:08,416
the strongest evidence for ghosts or

2110
01:10:08,416 --> 01:10:11,416
fairies, it's pretty bad.

2111
01:10:11,416 --> 01:10:13,125
And so I'm willing to think, "Well,

2112
01:10:13,125 --> 01:10:18,458
that's mostly illusions and mistakes and

2113
01:10:18,458 --> 01:10:18,958
frauds or whatever."

2114
01:10:20,541 --> 01:10:23,625
But as you may know, like, ball lightning

2115
01:10:23,625 --> 01:10:24,666
is the sort of thing—if you look for

2116
01:10:24,666 --> 01:10:25,416
the best evidence in

2117
01:10:25,416 --> 01:10:29,000
the wild of it, it's bad.

2118
01:10:29,000 --> 01:10:30,416
You wouldn't be convinced ball lightning

2119
01:10:30,416 --> 01:10:31,541
exists from the best evidence in the

2120
01:10:31,541 --> 01:10:32,791
wild, the evidence that convinced people

2121
01:10:32,791 --> 01:10:35,208
as they made it in the lab. That was it.

2122
01:10:35,208 --> 01:10:37,125
So it shows you there can be real stuff,

2123
01:10:37,125 --> 01:10:38,458
because you confirm in the lab that the

2124
01:10:38,458 --> 01:10:39,125
best evidence in the

2125
01:10:39,125 --> 01:10:40,958
field is pretty weak.

2126
01:10:40,958 --> 01:10:42,375
So that makes you not so

2127
01:10:42,375 --> 01:10:43,916
sure what to believe in, right?

2128
01:10:44,250 --> 01:10:46,791
Well, you talked about some other

2129
01:10:46,791 --> 01:10:48,416
interesting characters,

2130
01:10:48,416 --> 01:10:49,958
fairies, things of that nature.

2131
01:10:49,958 --> 01:10:53,041
I know you have perhaps considered some

2132
01:10:53,041 --> 01:10:56,875
mythological creatures or gods, things of

2133
01:10:56,875 --> 01:10:58,916
that nature could be tied into this story

2134
01:10:58,916 --> 01:10:59,833
that may have been around us

2135
01:10:59,833 --> 01:11:02,500
for a longer period of time.

2136
01:11:02,500 --> 01:11:04,500
Where are you on that topic about perhaps

2137
01:11:04,500 --> 01:11:06,958
how we've been—if these—making the

2138
01:11:06,958 --> 01:11:07,458
assumption that these

2139
01:11:07,458 --> 01:11:07,958
have been around for a while,

2140
01:11:08,416 --> 01:11:10,916
how have we perhaps interfaced with these

2141
01:11:10,916 --> 01:11:13,291
throughout our time on this planet or

2142
01:11:13,291 --> 01:11:14,125
perhaps interpreted it in

2143
01:11:14,125 --> 01:11:17,125
our writings or our stories?

2144
01:11:17,125 --> 01:11:20,958
So under the assumption they started 100

2145
01:11:20,958 --> 01:11:22,916
million years ago, the question is, how

2146
01:11:22,916 --> 01:11:24,166
recently did they show up?

2147
01:11:24,166 --> 01:11:25,708
And you've got to figure, well, they

2148
01:11:25,708 --> 01:11:28,250
probably showed up a while ago, right?

2149
01:11:28,250 --> 01:11:29,833
They wouldn't be trying to time it to

2150
01:11:29,833 --> 01:11:32,500
show up in the last thousand years before

2151
01:11:32,500 --> 01:11:33,541
interesting things happen, right?

2152
01:11:33,541 --> 01:11:34,708
That seems a little risky, because

2153
01:11:34,708 --> 01:11:36,916
they're thousands of light years away. They wouldn't want to take that.

2154
01:11:37,875 --> 01:11:39,833
Especially when you consider how fast

2155
01:11:39,833 --> 01:11:40,500
technology develops.

2156
01:11:40,500 --> 01:11:42,583
Right, right. So presumably they would be

2157
01:11:42,583 --> 01:11:45,083
around for at least, say, 10,000 years.

2158
01:11:45,083 --> 01:11:46,791
So that means there's 10,000 years of

2159
01:11:46,791 --> 01:11:48,041
history wherein they might

2160
01:11:48,041 --> 01:11:50,375
have been part of history, right?

2161
01:11:50,375 --> 01:11:51,916
And then the next question would be,

2162
01:11:51,916 --> 01:11:54,125
well, would they change their former

2163
01:11:54,125 --> 01:11:56,833
style over time to adapt to us, or if

2164
01:11:56,833 --> 01:11:58,875
they had a constant former style?

2165
01:11:58,875 --> 01:12:01,458
That seems like the top question.

2166
01:12:01,458 --> 01:12:03,333
So first of all, can I reject the

2167
01:12:03,333 --> 01:12:03,916
constant former style?

2168
01:12:04,416 --> 01:12:06,791
So if I look at ancient reports that are

2169
01:12:06,791 --> 01:12:09,833
claimed to be like UAPs, the question is,

2170
01:12:09,833 --> 01:12:11,583
are those of a noticeably

2171
01:12:11,583 --> 01:12:15,791
distinct style than recent ones?

2172
01:12:15,791 --> 01:12:17,166
I can't see that difference, but I

2173
01:12:17,166 --> 01:12:17,958
haven't been studying that.

2174
01:12:17,958 --> 01:12:19,291
But if you could show me that difference,

2175
01:12:19,291 --> 01:12:20,291
then I might be convinced, well, that's

2176
01:12:20,291 --> 01:12:22,083
an interesting piece of evidence.

2177
01:12:22,083 --> 01:12:23,500
They have been changing their style.

2178
01:12:23,500 --> 01:12:25,208
So there's one key question you see that

2179
01:12:25,208 --> 01:12:26,958
this is relevant for is, how

2180
01:12:26,958 --> 01:12:28,333
much do they know about us?

2181
01:12:29,583 --> 01:12:32,000
So the more their style has been

2182
01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:34,833
independent of us across space and time,

2183
01:12:34,833 --> 01:12:35,708
the less we know about

2184
01:12:35,708 --> 01:12:37,750
how much they know about us.

2185
01:12:37,750 --> 01:12:38,625
Right?

2186
01:12:38,625 --> 01:12:41,166
So if they've been changing their style

2187
01:12:41,166 --> 01:12:44,333
even in the last 70 years, then that says

2188
01:12:44,333 --> 01:12:47,416
they have been responding to us, and that

2189
01:12:47,416 --> 01:12:49,208
means they know things about us.

2190
01:12:49,208 --> 01:12:51,208
And that's information that's valuable,

2191
01:12:51,208 --> 01:12:53,333
like how much do they know about us?

2192
01:12:53,333 --> 01:12:55,208
So like the rot theory suggests maybe

2193
01:12:55,208 --> 01:12:56,750
they don't know anything about us much.

2194
01:12:56,750 --> 01:12:57,083
Maybe they—

2195
01:12:57,083 --> 01:12:57,791
The rot theory?

2196
01:12:58,458 --> 01:12:59,458
The rot.

2197
01:12:59,458 --> 01:13:00,833
Maybe their civilizations show rot.

2198
01:13:00,833 --> 01:13:02,291
They can't even read our language.

2199
01:13:02,291 --> 01:13:03,166
They have no idea what we're

2200
01:13:03,166 --> 01:13:05,000
saying to each other, right?

2201
01:13:05,000 --> 01:13:06,208
They aren't reading our newspapers.

2202
01:13:06,208 --> 01:13:08,583
They aren't like—they're just maybe

2203
01:13:08,583 --> 01:13:10,375
looking at something like seeing a

2204
01:13:10,375 --> 01:13:11,458
nuclear explosion and

2205
01:13:11,458 --> 01:13:12,500
saying, "Aha, check mark."

2206
01:13:12,500 --> 01:13:13,833
They're past that point in

2207
01:13:13,833 --> 01:13:15,291
the technology level, right?

2208
01:13:15,291 --> 01:13:16,833
And just they have a few check marks like

2209
01:13:16,833 --> 01:13:17,500
that, and that's all pretty

2210
01:13:17,500 --> 01:13:18,291
much all they know about us.

2211
01:13:18,291 --> 01:13:20,125
That would be at one extreme.

2212
01:13:20,125 --> 01:13:21,708
And that would give us then more options

2213
01:13:21,708 --> 01:13:24,791
for evading them if they hardly know

2214
01:13:24,791 --> 01:13:25,291
anything about us, right?

2215
01:13:25,541 --> 01:13:30,041
And under that, we could even consider an

2216
01:13:30,041 --> 01:13:31,958
extreme rot scenario where we're just

2217
01:13:31,958 --> 01:13:34,458
left with artifacts that are proceeding

2218
01:13:34,458 --> 01:13:36,916
in an autonomous fashion to some degree.

2219
01:13:36,916 --> 01:13:38,500
Well, the question is how stupid would

2220
01:13:38,500 --> 01:13:41,583
they get under rot, right?

2221
01:13:41,583 --> 01:13:43,791
Do you think destruction is part of rot,

2222
01:13:43,791 --> 01:13:44,791
like overall destruction?

2223
01:13:44,791 --> 01:13:46,541
Or does rot end at a

2224
01:13:46,541 --> 01:13:48,083
functioning yet degraded state?

2225
01:13:48,083 --> 01:13:49,750
There's a sense which we humans, when

2226
01:13:49,750 --> 01:13:52,041
we're degraded with age,

2227
01:13:52,041 --> 01:13:52,916
are somewhat more stupid.

2228
01:13:53,833 --> 01:13:58,041
Okay, but not enormously, right?

2229
01:13:58,041 --> 01:14:01,125
So even civilizations as they collapse,

2230
01:14:01,125 --> 01:14:03,458
the elites aren't much more stupid than

2231
01:14:03,458 --> 01:14:05,916
they were at their peak.

2232
01:14:05,916 --> 01:14:08,708
So with those sort of examples, I would

2233
01:14:08,708 --> 01:14:10,875
think, well, if they're more stupid,

2234
01:14:10,875 --> 01:14:11,583
under extreme rot is

2235
01:14:11,583 --> 01:14:12,708
not that much more stupid.

2236
01:14:12,708 --> 01:14:13,541
But maybe they—

2237
01:14:13,541 --> 01:14:14,583
They're thinking of Rome.

2238
01:14:14,583 --> 01:14:15,625
But they have less sort

2239
01:14:15,625 --> 01:14:17,166
of organizational capacity.

2240
01:14:17,166 --> 01:14:18,375
They couldn't coordinate on

2241
01:14:18,375 --> 01:14:18,916
bigger scales to do stuff.

2242
01:14:19,416 --> 01:14:22,208
But the individuals might be, you know,

2243
01:14:22,208 --> 01:14:23,500
still—they probably, the individuals

2244
01:14:23,500 --> 01:14:25,000
are still a lot smarter than us.

2245
01:14:25,000 --> 01:14:25,708
Certainly.

2246
01:14:25,708 --> 01:14:27,041
I'm just thinking of, like, you know,

2247
01:14:27,041 --> 01:14:30,041
Roman Rhodes being left over, the society

2248
01:14:30,041 --> 01:14:32,500
that built them not being there.

2249
01:14:32,500 --> 01:14:33,583
Right, but I mean, they're

2250
01:14:33,583 --> 01:14:34,916
around and they're active.

2251
01:14:34,916 --> 01:14:36,875
So I would think, like, this is a basis

2252
01:14:36,875 --> 01:14:38,791
enough that, like, if their homeworld had

2253
01:14:38,791 --> 01:14:40,708
collapsed and destroyed itself, then they

2254
01:14:40,708 --> 01:14:43,791
could reseed it from this expedition if

2255
01:14:43,791 --> 01:14:44,541
that had been allowed

2256
01:14:44,541 --> 01:14:45,041
in the initial plan.

2257
01:14:46,083 --> 01:14:47,750
Depending on the time frames with the

2258
01:14:47,750 --> 01:14:49,916
speed of light and their relative

2259
01:14:49,916 --> 01:14:51,416
proximity, they would need a certain

2260
01:14:51,416 --> 01:14:53,958
amount of automation here, especially if

2261
01:14:53,958 --> 01:14:55,916
the amount of time that we could go from

2262
01:14:55,916 --> 01:14:58,041
nothing to an advanced society is so

2263
01:14:58,041 --> 01:14:59,833
small, it would have to have it.

2264
01:14:59,833 --> 01:15:02,000
So I think that unless they had gone out

2265
01:15:02,000 --> 01:15:04,000
of their way to stop it, they would have

2266
01:15:04,000 --> 01:15:05,500
just become automation.

2267
01:15:05,500 --> 01:15:07,958
They would just be artificial creatures.

2268
01:15:07,958 --> 01:15:10,083
So we're going to remove that distinction

2269
01:15:10,083 --> 01:15:11,041
a bit, which is fine to do

2270
01:15:11,041 --> 01:15:11,916
because it likely makes sense.

2271
01:15:12,041 --> 01:15:13,375
Well, but it opens the question, like,

2272
01:15:13,375 --> 01:15:15,250
there have been these U.A. reports of,

2273
01:15:15,250 --> 01:15:18,625
like, squishy biological creatures.

2274
01:15:18,625 --> 01:15:20,750
So the question is, why?

2275
01:15:20,750 --> 01:15:22,375
Right.
So one story would be, well, they're

2276
01:15:22,375 --> 01:15:23,625
trying to make something we can relate

2277
01:15:23,625 --> 01:15:27,458
to, and they sort of made up some squishy

2278
01:15:27,458 --> 01:15:29,083
biological creatures to show us in their

2279
01:15:29,083 --> 01:15:31,416
displays as a way to, like, make us be

2280
01:15:31,416 --> 01:15:32,875
more relatable, right?

2281
01:15:32,875 --> 01:15:33,541
Potentially.

2282
01:15:33,541 --> 01:15:34,041
Maybe.

2283
01:15:34,125 --> 01:15:36,250
And the other story is part of their

2284
01:15:36,250 --> 01:15:38,750
whole preventing the expansion into the

2285
01:15:38,750 --> 01:15:40,416
universe thing was trying to prevent

2286
01:15:40,416 --> 01:15:41,041
themselves from

2287
01:15:41,041 --> 01:15:42,041
evolving into being weird.

2288
01:15:42,041 --> 01:15:44,000
And so they drew a line and said, we're

2289
01:15:44,000 --> 01:15:46,208
going to save our squishy biological

2290
01:15:46,208 --> 01:15:47,958
parts and preserve them forever.

2291
01:15:47,958 --> 01:15:50,500
And that's why we see these because that

2292
01:15:50,500 --> 01:15:52,541
was part of their whole we're going to

2293
01:15:52,541 --> 01:15:53,500
draw a line on

2294
01:15:53,500 --> 01:15:55,333
progress, basically, you know.

2295
01:15:55,333 --> 01:15:56,916
And there are people today who feel that

2296
01:15:56,916 --> 01:15:59,166
way about us, like if you talk about

2297
01:15:59,166 --> 01:16:00,458
genetic engineering or other things, a

2298
01:16:00,458 --> 01:16:01,250
lot of people going, no,

2299
01:16:01,250 --> 01:16:01,916
we shouldn't allow that.

2300
01:16:02,000 --> 01:16:04,083
We shouldn't allow us to end about

2301
01:16:04,083 --> 01:16:04,750
artificial intelligence.

2302
01:16:04,750 --> 01:16:06,125
People say, you know, we should be scared

2303
01:16:06,125 --> 01:16:07,458
of the eyes replacing us

2304
01:16:07,458 --> 01:16:08,333
because they're not us.

2305
01:16:08,333 --> 01:16:10,416
And we need to make sure this wishy

2306
01:16:10,416 --> 01:16:11,458
biological things get saved.

2307
01:16:11,458 --> 01:16:14,833
And so there's a possibility that they

2308
01:16:14,833 --> 01:16:15,875
saved them and they

2309
01:16:15,875 --> 01:16:18,958
really are those there.

2310
01:16:18,958 --> 01:16:20,000
The possibility.

2311
01:16:20,000 --> 01:16:21,708
I feel like even if that was what you

2312
01:16:21,708 --> 01:16:23,500
wanted to do as a society, space travel

2313
01:16:23,500 --> 01:16:26,166
wouldn't be the particular occupation

2314
01:16:26,166 --> 01:16:26,916
that you would make that statement.

2315
01:16:27,416 --> 01:16:29,333
You would. Yeah, I mean, probably you

2316
01:16:29,333 --> 01:16:31,291
would just send the ship with only

2317
01:16:31,291 --> 01:16:32,875
machines and you'd grow the new bio

2318
01:16:32,875 --> 01:16:35,125
creatures at the other end.

2319
01:16:35,125 --> 01:16:38,500
But no, that's still it's still

2320
01:16:38,500 --> 01:16:39,958
interesting because if we do make the

2321
01:16:39,958 --> 01:16:41,875
assumption that there has to be some

2322
01:16:41,875 --> 01:16:43,125
significant time delay, it has to have

2323
01:16:43,125 --> 01:16:45,166
its own ability to respond to its

2324
01:16:45,166 --> 01:16:47,416
environment based off of data gets.

2325
01:16:47,416 --> 01:16:49,791
That allows us to better define it and

2326
01:16:49,791 --> 01:16:51,875
isolate its scope of

2327
01:16:51,875 --> 01:16:52,916
reactions potentially.

2328
01:16:53,666 --> 01:16:55,416
Right. So again, we have the presumption

2329
01:16:55,416 --> 01:16:56,791
the home world didn't want to allow them

2330
01:16:56,791 --> 01:16:58,250
very much discretion.

2331
01:16:58,250 --> 01:16:59,916
They wanted to give them a very simple

2332
01:16:59,916 --> 01:17:01,833
strategy to execute that they could trust

2333
01:17:01,833 --> 01:17:03,583
and not worry about them going rogue and

2334
01:17:03,583 --> 01:17:05,166
maybe limit their capacities.

2335
01:17:05,166 --> 01:17:07,375
And so that's that's a key question.

2336
01:17:07,375 --> 01:17:08,833
They might be very limited not because

2337
01:17:08,833 --> 01:17:10,708
the home world is that decayed just

2338
01:17:10,708 --> 01:17:13,291
because they they wanted to limit the

2339
01:17:13,291 --> 01:17:13,916
possibility of this going rogue.

2340
01:17:14,583 --> 01:17:17,208
When you think about the game of life,

2341
01:17:17,208 --> 01:17:18,958
Conway's game and, you know, how such

2342
01:17:18,958 --> 01:17:20,625
simple instructions can lead to such

2343
01:17:20,625 --> 01:17:23,000
complex behavior. It's really challenging

2344
01:17:23,000 --> 01:17:26,083
problem to compress the amount of actions

2345
01:17:26,083 --> 01:17:28,416
you could place in a society in order to

2346
01:17:28,416 --> 01:17:29,583
minimize or to steer in

2347
01:17:29,583 --> 01:17:31,666
the direction you want.

2348
01:17:31,666 --> 01:17:32,833
I don't know. You have any thoughts on

2349
01:17:32,833 --> 01:17:35,625
that? It seems like a well, having a

2350
01:17:35,625 --> 01:17:36,916
small amount of framers seems simple on

2351
01:17:36,916 --> 01:17:37,875
its face, but can lead

2352
01:17:37,875 --> 01:17:38,916
to incredible complexity.

2353
01:17:40,041 --> 01:17:41,500
Sure. But they just want to draw some

2354
01:17:41,500 --> 01:17:43,083
borders. So they might like they send out

2355
01:17:43,083 --> 01:17:44,833
this expedition with some tech credit and

2356
01:17:44,833 --> 01:17:46,291
presumably it have some self repair tech.

2357
01:17:46,291 --> 01:17:47,291
Right. Things are going to break and they

2358
01:17:47,291 --> 01:17:48,000
need to be repaired.

2359
01:17:48,000 --> 01:17:49,916
It'll have some ability to collect new

2360
01:17:49,916 --> 01:17:52,250
raw materials to replace old missing

2361
01:17:52,250 --> 01:17:53,708
materials, say to get to

2362
01:17:53,708 --> 01:17:55,333
mine something for fuel. Right.

2363
01:17:55,333 --> 01:17:56,833
So it would have to have some of those

2364
01:17:56,833 --> 01:17:57,708
abilities to repair

2365
01:17:57,708 --> 01:17:59,416
and make things locally.

2366
01:17:59,416 --> 01:18:00,333
But you might think, well, they wanted to

2367
01:18:00,333 --> 01:18:01,500
make sure those abilities

2368
01:18:01,500 --> 01:18:02,875
couldn't allow it to go rogue.

2369
01:18:02,875 --> 01:18:04,291
I eat to send off new

2370
01:18:04,291 --> 01:18:05,625
interstellar colonies.

2371
01:18:05,625 --> 01:18:07,333
So maybe it draws a line at like

2372
01:18:07,333 --> 01:18:07,916
interstellar travel tech.

2373
01:18:08,500 --> 01:18:09,958
So you think it would it would still be a

2374
01:18:09,958 --> 01:18:12,500
quite capable. It wouldn't be over

2375
01:18:12,500 --> 01:18:13,625
optimized for simplicity.

2376
01:18:13,625 --> 01:18:15,916
It would still have some pretty advanced

2377
01:18:15,916 --> 01:18:17,166
behaviors from our perspective.

2378
01:18:17,166 --> 01:18:18,458
As long as they could draw a line to make

2379
01:18:18,458 --> 01:18:20,041
sure this thing couldn't go rogue. Right.

2380
01:18:20,041 --> 01:18:20,833
That would be the key.

2381
01:18:20,833 --> 01:18:22,166
That's a big question right now, even

2382
01:18:22,166 --> 01:18:24,916
with us. Right. But you could imagine

2383
01:18:24,916 --> 01:18:28,083
sending out a particular device or set of

2384
01:18:28,083 --> 01:18:30,333
devices that could repair themselves and

2385
01:18:30,333 --> 01:18:32,291
make these probes we see,

2386
01:18:32,291 --> 01:18:33,750
but not make a starship.

2387
01:18:34,916 --> 01:18:36,583
And maybe you could make a

2388
01:18:36,583 --> 01:18:38,125
device that had that limit.

2389
01:18:38,125 --> 01:18:39,666
That seems like if you had millions of

2390
01:18:39,666 --> 01:18:41,125
years to think about it, you could

2391
01:18:41,125 --> 01:18:41,791
probably come up with

2392
01:18:41,791 --> 01:18:42,500
something like that.

2393
01:18:42,500 --> 01:18:46,500
Do you think that that device would be as

2394
01:18:46,500 --> 01:18:47,666
capable or smart as

2395
01:18:47,666 --> 01:18:48,625
us? Yeah, it could be.

2396
01:18:48,625 --> 01:18:50,291
I mean, be easy to be as smart as us.

2397
01:18:50,291 --> 01:18:52,416
That is, if you limited its physical

2398
01:18:52,416 --> 01:18:53,958
abilities, you don't have to

2399
01:18:53,958 --> 01:18:56,250
limit its mental abilities.

2400
01:18:56,250 --> 01:18:58,500
Although, you know, the question is, if

2401
01:18:58,500 --> 01:19:00,583
you give it any sort of arbitrary

2402
01:19:00,583 --> 01:19:01,125
manufacturing ability,

2403
01:19:01,125 --> 01:19:01,916
couldn't it make anything?

2404
01:19:02,916 --> 01:19:05,000
And then like couldn't it use whatever

2405
01:19:05,000 --> 01:19:07,375
machines you gave it to make an arbitrary

2406
01:19:07,375 --> 01:19:08,000
manufacturing ability?

2407
01:19:08,000 --> 01:19:09,000
It's a very fine line

2408
01:19:09,000 --> 01:19:11,250
there, right? Yeah, it's tricky.

2409
01:19:11,250 --> 01:19:12,916
So I would think maybe something like

2410
01:19:12,916 --> 01:19:16,250
political officers is more the

2411
01:19:16,250 --> 01:19:17,208
straightforward solution.

2412
01:19:17,208 --> 01:19:18,708
I mean, so like in the old Soviet Union,

2413
01:19:18,708 --> 01:19:20,458
like every submarine and other military

2414
01:19:20,458 --> 01:19:21,750
units would have a political officer

2415
01:19:21,750 --> 01:19:24,166
whose main job was to make sure these

2416
01:19:24,166 --> 01:19:27,666
soldiers stayed within the political

2417
01:19:27,666 --> 01:19:28,958
constraints that the

2418
01:19:28,958 --> 01:19:29,916
military wanted to enforce.

2419
01:19:30,833 --> 01:19:33,583
Would you suggest those political

2420
01:19:33,583 --> 01:19:35,083
officers are dealing with more subjective

2421
01:19:35,083 --> 01:19:38,708
problem sets versus quantitative?

2422
01:19:38,708 --> 01:19:40,875
So what I'm going with this is, you know,

2423
01:19:40,875 --> 01:19:41,416
why do we have these

2424
01:19:41,416 --> 01:19:42,125
spongy things in there?

2425
01:19:42,125 --> 01:19:45,416
Like you said, maybe that is a subjective

2426
01:19:45,416 --> 01:19:47,083
leadership experience that

2427
01:19:47,083 --> 01:19:51,458
helps maintain that local less.

2428
01:19:51,458 --> 01:19:53,583
Right. So let's review like what are the

2429
01:19:53,583 --> 01:19:54,250
main things we want to

2430
01:19:54,250 --> 01:19:54,916
know about them, right?

2431
01:19:56,083 --> 01:19:58,375
One thing is, could we defy them? How

2432
01:19:58,375 --> 01:19:59,166
weak are they? How

2433
01:19:59,166 --> 01:20:00,583
thorough are they? Right.

2434
01:20:00,583 --> 01:20:02,250
What's our best shot of slipping off on

2435
01:20:02,250 --> 01:20:03,416
our wares? I mean, they're going to

2436
01:20:03,416 --> 01:20:03,958
already have thought

2437
01:20:03,958 --> 01:20:04,708
this through, too. Right.

2438
01:20:04,708 --> 01:20:06,583
So this is a pretty hard problem. Like

2439
01:20:06,583 --> 01:20:08,083
can we figure out a way we could slip off

2440
01:20:08,083 --> 01:20:08,666
that they haven't thought of?

2441
01:20:08,666 --> 01:20:10,041
Do we really I mean, not to interrupt

2442
01:20:10,041 --> 01:20:12,250
you, but is that is that what we

2443
01:20:12,250 --> 01:20:13,500
immediately want to try to do?

2444
01:20:13,500 --> 01:20:15,541
Or it's not obvious we do, but that's

2445
01:20:15,541 --> 01:20:16,333
that's one of the things we

2446
01:20:16,333 --> 01:20:17,500
might want to know about them.

2447
01:20:17,500 --> 01:20:19,500
Do we even have an option here? Is this

2448
01:20:19,500 --> 01:20:20,416
at all plausible? Right.

2449
01:20:21,375 --> 01:20:23,750
We want to know what their limit is like

2450
01:20:23,750 --> 01:20:26,291
what the line we shouldn't cross.

2451
01:20:26,291 --> 01:20:27,625
And is there a way to figure that out

2452
01:20:27,625 --> 01:20:30,166
from their behavior?

2453
01:20:30,166 --> 01:20:31,708
And then we want to know, do they have

2454
01:20:31,708 --> 01:20:33,958
any other agendas for us? Right.

2455
01:20:33,958 --> 01:20:36,291
Like some people in the UAP community or

2456
01:20:36,291 --> 01:20:37,375
like who have had

2457
01:20:37,375 --> 01:20:40,083
encounters, have had this feelings.

2458
01:20:40,083 --> 01:20:41,708
They've said that they were, you know,

2459
01:20:41,708 --> 01:20:42,458
there was a

2460
01:20:42,458 --> 01:20:43,541
communication of some messages.

2461
01:20:43,541 --> 01:20:45,208
Don't mess with the environment or, you

2462
01:20:45,208 --> 01:20:46,541
know, don't do nuclear weapons or

2463
01:20:46,541 --> 01:20:47,041
whatever it is. Right.

2464
01:20:47,458 --> 01:20:48,166
Do they have some

2465
01:20:48,166 --> 01:20:52,416
other messages or agendas?

2466
01:20:52,416 --> 01:20:54,833
You view those as lines. Do you think

2467
01:20:54,833 --> 01:20:59,500
those are potentially examples of lines?

2468
01:20:59,500 --> 01:21:04,041
Well, so at the moment you and I are in a

2469
01:21:04,041 --> 01:21:06,291
sort of not entirely loyal

2470
01:21:06,291 --> 01:21:08,458
to the aliens mode. Right.

2471
01:21:09,500 --> 01:21:12,916
OK. But I think a big fraction of

2472
01:21:12,916 --> 01:21:15,083
humanity over the coming centuries as

2473
01:21:15,083 --> 01:21:19,000
they came to accept these UAPs as real,

2474
01:21:19,000 --> 01:21:21,791
they would go well beyond this mode into

2475
01:21:21,791 --> 01:21:23,458
more of a supplicant mode.

2476
01:21:23,458 --> 01:21:27,583
They would accept aliens as like our top

2477
01:21:27,583 --> 01:21:29,791
status people, even our gods.

2478
01:21:29,791 --> 01:21:31,708
And they would more want to know what the

2479
01:21:31,708 --> 01:21:33,875
gods want, not out of

2480
01:21:33,875 --> 01:21:34,916
figuring out if you can defy them,

2481
01:21:35,500 --> 01:21:37,083
but because you want to

2482
01:21:37,083 --> 01:21:39,750
do what the gods want.

2483
01:21:39,750 --> 01:21:41,500
Is there a risk of option?

2484
01:21:41,500 --> 01:21:44,333
Right. So I think it's not just that you

2485
01:21:44,333 --> 01:21:45,750
honestly respect them. You

2486
01:21:45,750 --> 01:21:46,875
honestly look up to them.

2487
01:21:46,875 --> 01:21:50,375
You honestly do think they are wise and

2488
01:21:50,375 --> 01:21:53,375
that what they think is a good idea is

2489
01:21:53,375 --> 01:21:56,291
for that reason to you a good idea.

2490
01:21:56,291 --> 01:21:58,333
So that's strange to us to imagine this.

2491
01:21:58,333 --> 01:21:59,458
But I think that's the kind of thing you

2492
01:21:59,458 --> 01:22:00,875
have to get your head around here,

2493
01:22:00,875 --> 01:22:01,500
because that's how

2494
01:22:01,500 --> 01:22:02,916
most of human history was.

2495
01:22:03,333 --> 01:22:05,166
Most of human history, we not just feared

2496
01:22:05,166 --> 01:22:08,125
the gods, we respected the gods and we

2497
01:22:08,125 --> 01:22:09,500
wanted to be like the gods

2498
01:22:09,500 --> 01:22:11,291
and to do what the gods wanted.

2499
01:22:11,291 --> 01:22:13,166
Is there something that we need to change

2500
01:22:13,166 --> 01:22:15,375
as a society so we don't lose ourselves

2501
01:22:15,375 --> 01:22:18,375
in that parental relationships, perhaps?

2502
01:22:18,375 --> 01:22:20,833
Well, that's the question. Is that losing

2503
01:22:20,833 --> 01:22:22,166
ourselves or is that finding ourselves?

2504
01:22:22,166 --> 01:22:24,750
That is, we see it as losing ourselves,

2505
01:22:24,750 --> 01:22:26,458
but they will see it as finding

2506
01:22:26,458 --> 01:22:28,750
themselves if that's the way we go.

2507
01:22:29,500 --> 01:22:31,125
Sure, our ancestors who looked up to the

2508
01:22:31,125 --> 01:22:31,833
gods, they didn't think

2509
01:22:31,833 --> 01:22:33,583
they had lost themselves.

2510
01:22:33,583 --> 01:22:34,541
Yeah, that's very true.

2511
01:22:34,541 --> 01:22:36,125
They thought that was

2512
01:22:36,125 --> 01:22:37,375
the right way to be.

2513
01:22:37,375 --> 01:22:39,708
Is this a religious question, you think,

2514
01:22:39,708 --> 01:22:42,083
as well as sociological?

2515
01:22:42,083 --> 01:22:43,833
And how do you really define the two or

2516
01:22:43,833 --> 01:22:46,916
draw the line between the two, perhaps?

2517
01:22:46,916 --> 01:22:49,416
In the last year, I did a lot of work on

2518
01:22:49,416 --> 01:22:51,375
the concept of the sacred.

2519
01:22:51,375 --> 01:22:53,208
And the high level point to notice is

2520
01:22:53,208 --> 01:22:56,166
that religion is in decline over the last

2521
01:22:56,166 --> 01:22:57,916
century or so, but the sacred is not.

2522
01:22:58,500 --> 01:23:00,500
So once upon a time, the sacred was all

2523
01:23:00,500 --> 01:23:01,833
mixed up with religion.

2524
01:23:01,833 --> 01:23:04,000
But now we treat many things as sacred

2525
01:23:04,000 --> 01:23:05,000
without really the

2526
01:23:05,000 --> 01:23:06,041
religious backing or support.

2527
01:23:06,041 --> 01:23:07,375
It's just treated as sacred.

2528
01:23:07,375 --> 01:23:11,000
So I would more think the aliens would be

2529
01:23:11,000 --> 01:23:13,958
treated as sacred

2530
01:23:13,958 --> 01:23:16,708
pretty obviously, I think.

2531
01:23:16,708 --> 01:23:18,916
Whether that counts as religious, I'm not

2532
01:23:18,916 --> 01:23:21,250
sure it matters so much.

2533
01:23:21,250 --> 01:23:23,375
But, you know, so clearly once upon a

2534
01:23:23,375 --> 01:23:24,458
time, there were gods

2535
01:23:24,458 --> 01:23:25,916
who didn't say much.

2536
01:23:26,625 --> 01:23:28,041
And then we had the set of religions

2537
01:23:28,041 --> 01:23:29,875
where gods had a local

2538
01:23:29,875 --> 01:23:31,333
messenger on earth who said a lot.

2539
01:23:31,333 --> 01:23:32,458
And then that was very

2540
01:23:32,458 --> 01:23:33,791
influential in behavior, right?

2541
01:23:33,791 --> 01:23:34,458
Jesus or Rahab.

2542
01:23:34,458 --> 01:23:36,708
And people wanted to go along with what

2543
01:23:36,708 --> 01:23:37,625
they said because that

2544
01:23:37,625 --> 01:23:39,708
was supposedly God talking.

2545
01:23:39,708 --> 01:23:42,000
Well, I could see this forming either

2546
01:23:42,000 --> 01:23:43,958
strengthening or forming new religions,

2547
01:23:43,958 --> 01:23:46,541
which could be very

2548
01:23:46,541 --> 01:23:47,916
powerful, frankly, sociologically,

2549
01:23:48,875 --> 01:23:51,166
but counter perhaps to what the

2550
01:23:51,166 --> 01:23:53,041
government's goals are because it would

2551
01:23:53,041 --> 01:23:56,291
be a separate authority figure that is

2552
01:23:56,291 --> 01:23:57,083
validated, perhaps,

2553
01:23:57,083 --> 01:23:58,666
if there is firm proof.

2554
01:23:58,666 --> 01:24:00,083
Do you think there's a

2555
01:24:00,083 --> 01:24:00,916
conflict there, perhaps?

2556
01:24:02,791 --> 01:24:07,041
I think that one of the clear predictions

2557
01:24:07,041 --> 01:24:08,958
if the world comes to believe that many

2558
01:24:08,958 --> 01:24:12,541
UFOs are aliens is that they will be this

2559
01:24:12,541 --> 01:24:16,083
retribution or accounting for all the

2560
01:24:16,083 --> 01:24:19,208
governments who said otherwise, who kind

2561
01:24:19,208 --> 01:24:22,208
of had evidence to the contrary, right?

2562
01:24:22,208 --> 01:24:24,333
There will be some story about how they

2563
01:24:24,333 --> 01:24:26,416
were wrong and they should be shamed.

2564
01:24:26,416 --> 01:24:28,041
And basically, the new governments

2565
01:24:28,041 --> 01:24:28,791
afterwards will

2566
01:24:28,791 --> 01:24:29,916
distance themselves from that.

2567
01:24:30,208 --> 01:24:32,666
Just like we now, say, as democratic

2568
01:24:32,666 --> 01:24:34,583
governments distance ourselves from our

2569
01:24:34,583 --> 01:24:35,583
ancestral monarchy

2570
01:24:35,583 --> 01:24:37,166
governments and say that wasn't us.

2571
01:24:37,166 --> 01:24:37,791
That was them.

2572
01:24:37,791 --> 01:24:38,916
And they did the wrong things and we're

2573
01:24:38,916 --> 01:24:40,041
doing the right things.

2574
01:24:40,041 --> 01:24:41,500
So then there would be some sort of way

2575
01:24:41,500 --> 01:24:43,833
in which new governments would say we're

2576
01:24:43,833 --> 01:24:47,125
the good governments who believe in

2577
01:24:47,125 --> 01:24:48,916
aliens and go along with them, not like

2578
01:24:48,916 --> 01:24:49,791
those bad old

2579
01:24:49,791 --> 01:24:51,125
governments who resisted them.

2580
01:24:51,125 --> 01:24:53,541
There would be a distancing

2581
01:24:53,541 --> 01:24:55,375
from those old governments.

2582
01:24:55,375 --> 01:24:57,041
That would be, therefore, a point at

2583
01:24:57,041 --> 01:24:57,791
which there might be

2584
01:24:57,791 --> 01:24:58,916
political revolutions even.

2585
01:24:59,125 --> 01:25:00,916
Like that could be the basis of some way

2586
01:25:00,916 --> 01:25:04,208
in which there was a great overturning of

2587
01:25:04,208 --> 01:25:07,416
previous political governance regime

2588
01:25:07,416 --> 01:25:08,583
using this as the excuse.

2589
01:25:08,583 --> 01:25:09,625
Those old corrupt

2590
01:25:09,625 --> 01:25:12,458
governments, they refused to believe.

2591
01:25:12,458 --> 01:25:14,833
They even hit it and they actively

2592
01:25:14,833 --> 01:25:16,666
prevented everyone from knowing this key

2593
01:25:16,666 --> 01:25:19,458
thing that we should all know.

2594
01:25:19,458 --> 01:25:21,875
And there would be retribution.

2595
01:25:21,875 --> 01:25:23,125
Let's talk about the

2596
01:25:23,125 --> 01:25:24,916
government and its actions today.

2597
01:25:25,125 --> 01:25:28,375
Maybe you can provide a little background

2598
01:25:28,375 --> 01:25:30,041
on just kind of how you view the events

2599
01:25:30,041 --> 01:25:30,833
of today with the

2600
01:25:30,833 --> 01:25:32,166
government's interaction in it.

2601
01:25:32,166 --> 01:25:34,041
And, you know, this has been in the news.

2602
01:25:34,041 --> 01:25:35,875
There's laws being passed.

2603
01:25:35,875 --> 01:25:37,500
This is now an active topic that's

2604
01:25:37,500 --> 01:25:38,583
getting a lot of attention.

2605
01:25:38,583 --> 01:25:41,583
How do you interpret that?

2606
01:25:41,583 --> 01:25:44,541
My read is that most of the usual elites,

2607
01:25:44,541 --> 01:25:47,708
say physicists, academics, journalists,

2608
01:25:47,708 --> 01:25:50,625
they're still pretty anti-UAP.

2609
01:25:51,208 --> 01:25:53,916
And it's almost a knee-jerk assumption

2610
01:25:53,916 --> 01:25:56,375
among them that you would be, too.

2611
01:25:56,375 --> 01:25:58,833
So there is allowing some government

2612
01:25:58,833 --> 01:26:00,500
agencies to issue some reports and issue

2613
01:26:00,500 --> 01:26:01,625
some things and have

2614
01:26:01,625 --> 01:26:03,541
some congressional hearings.

2615
01:26:03,541 --> 01:26:05,458
And that's more sort of allowing this

2616
01:26:05,458 --> 01:26:07,291
minority to be more

2617
01:26:07,291 --> 01:26:08,416
prominent than it used to be.

2618
01:26:08,416 --> 01:26:10,000
But it's still a minority.

2619
01:26:10,000 --> 01:26:11,750
It's still not just a minority.

2620
01:26:11,750 --> 01:26:13,916
It's a look-down-on minority, right?

2621
01:26:14,958 --> 01:26:17,291
So you might make the analogy to, you

2622
01:26:17,291 --> 01:26:20,375
know, blacks in the U.S. were raised in

2623
01:26:20,375 --> 01:26:21,791
status, say, during World War II, to have

2624
01:26:21,791 --> 01:26:23,750
their own military divisions and fighter

2625
01:26:23,750 --> 01:26:24,791
pilot division or something else.

2626
01:26:24,791 --> 01:26:26,125
And that was certainly raising their

2627
01:26:26,125 --> 01:26:28,291
status relative to before, but it wasn't

2628
01:26:28,291 --> 01:26:29,916
to equality at that point, right?

2629
01:26:30,500 --> 01:26:32,625
So I would think that's the current

2630
01:26:32,625 --> 01:26:36,166
situation, is the UAP community is being

2631
01:26:36,166 --> 01:26:38,875
allowed to be seen as higher than they

2632
01:26:38,875 --> 01:26:44,291
once were, but not equal to the rest.

2633
01:26:44,291 --> 01:26:44,916
Well, OK.

2634
01:26:44,916 --> 01:26:45,750
That's fair.

2635
01:26:45,750 --> 01:26:46,833
That's certainly true.

2636
01:26:47,166 --> 01:26:48,708
Do you think that the government's

2637
01:26:48,708 --> 01:26:50,791
activities outside of boosting up that

2638
01:26:50,791 --> 01:26:52,958
cohort, that minority,

2639
01:26:52,958 --> 01:26:54,083
what about their intentions?

2640
01:26:54,083 --> 01:26:56,000
Because I doubt that was necessarily

2641
01:26:56,000 --> 01:26:58,250
their core intention was to

2642
01:26:58,250 --> 01:27:00,333
prop up that group necessarily.

2643
01:27:00,333 --> 01:27:02,458
Well, the things I've heard suggest that

2644
01:27:02,458 --> 01:27:04,708
the primary causal process here was

2645
01:27:04,708 --> 01:27:06,708
particular politicians

2646
01:27:06,708 --> 01:27:08,750
pushing them to, basically.

2647
01:27:08,750 --> 01:27:10,250
Well, they required them to, and then

2648
01:27:10,250 --> 01:27:11,500
they somehow defied it.

2649
01:27:11,500 --> 01:27:12,875
And then the politicians went back and,

2650
01:27:12,875 --> 01:27:15,166
like, kept retrying to require them to so

2651
01:27:15,166 --> 01:27:15,916
that they couldn't evade the requirement.

2652
01:27:16,708 --> 01:27:19,000
So you see this as more grassroots?

2653
01:27:19,000 --> 01:27:20,208
Well, it's more grassroots

2654
01:27:20,208 --> 01:27:21,500
through the top politicians.

2655
01:27:21,500 --> 01:27:23,291
Like, apparently, several presidents have

2656
01:27:23,291 --> 01:27:25,625
said, "Hey, I tried to go look into this,

2657
01:27:25,625 --> 01:27:27,458
and I got the runaround."

2658
01:27:27,458 --> 01:27:30,333
And then, you know, major heads of the

2659
01:27:30,333 --> 01:27:32,500
Senate and, you know, in Congress

2660
01:27:32,500 --> 01:27:34,625
basically said, "We tried again."

2661
01:27:34,625 --> 01:27:36,791
And, you know, and they just kept trying

2662
01:27:36,791 --> 01:27:38,500
again and again to force

2663
01:27:38,500 --> 01:27:39,916
the government to do more.

2664
01:27:40,166 --> 01:27:41,708
It seems like the government has

2665
01:27:41,708 --> 01:27:44,166
basically said, you know,

2666
01:27:44,166 --> 01:27:45,791
they've done what they had to.

2667
01:27:45,791 --> 01:27:46,791
They haven't been, like,

2668
01:27:46,791 --> 01:27:51,333
eager or, you know, enthusiastic.

2669
01:27:51,333 --> 01:27:55,500
I mean, the question is, how much of a

2670
01:27:55,500 --> 01:27:56,750
hidden part of the government is there

2671
01:27:56,750 --> 01:27:58,791
where they know a lot and they're hiding

2672
01:27:58,791 --> 01:28:00,875
a lot, as opposed to this is just, you

2673
01:28:00,875 --> 01:28:02,833
know, decentralized dysfunction?

2674
01:28:02,833 --> 01:28:05,041
And I don't know the answer to that.

2675
01:28:05,041 --> 01:28:06,916
But either one is plausible.

2676
01:28:07,541 --> 01:28:09,041
Where do you think this goes in the next

2677
01:28:09,041 --> 01:28:10,125
two years from the

2678
01:28:10,125 --> 01:28:11,041
government interaction side?

2679
01:28:11,041 --> 01:28:12,166
Do you think this fizzles out?

2680
01:28:12,166 --> 01:28:12,916
Do you think it continues?

2681
01:28:12,916 --> 01:28:14,583
Yeah, regression to the mean is my usual

2682
01:28:14,583 --> 01:28:16,958
prediction for everything.

2683
01:28:16,958 --> 01:28:18,000
You have a usual history,

2684
01:28:18,000 --> 01:28:18,750
and you have an exception.

2685
01:28:18,750 --> 01:28:19,916
The exception usually goes away.

2686
01:28:19,916 --> 01:28:21,500
Like, that was right after 9/11.

2687
01:28:21,500 --> 01:28:22,833
That was the question, right?

2688
01:28:22,833 --> 01:28:25,375
9/11, people said, "Is this the beginning

2689
01:28:25,375 --> 01:28:27,250
of a whole new trend of much bigger

2690
01:28:27,250 --> 01:28:29,583
terrorist attacks, or is this just an

2691
01:28:29,583 --> 01:28:30,625
unusual exception as

2692
01:28:30,625 --> 01:28:32,000
an unusually big one?"

2693
01:28:32,000 --> 01:28:34,000
Turned out it was the second, right?

2694
01:28:34,000 --> 01:28:34,916
It wasn't a new trend.

2695
01:28:35,500 --> 01:28:37,458
It was for something, but not necessarily

2696
01:28:37,458 --> 01:28:40,125
that specific initial cause.

2697
01:28:40,125 --> 01:28:42,375
Right.
But often when you have an unusual event,

2698
01:28:42,375 --> 01:28:43,416
that's the key question.

2699
01:28:43,416 --> 01:28:46,208
Is this trend breaking, or is this just

2700
01:28:46,208 --> 01:28:47,125
an unusually large

2701
01:28:47,125 --> 01:28:49,041
event in the usual trend?

2702
01:28:49,041 --> 01:28:50,833
And so that second

2703
01:28:50,833 --> 01:28:52,791
theory is the usual theory.

2704
01:28:52,791 --> 01:28:55,041
Usually when there's a deviation, it's

2705
01:28:55,041 --> 01:28:56,958
just an unusual deviation, and the usual

2706
01:28:56,958 --> 01:28:58,208
trend comes back afterwards.

2707
01:28:58,208 --> 01:29:00,208
We're six years in now.

2708
01:29:00,208 --> 01:29:01,125
We seem to still be on

2709
01:29:01,125 --> 01:29:01,916
an upward slope, I'd say.

2710
01:29:02,458 --> 01:29:04,583
So when does it start

2711
01:29:04,583 --> 01:29:08,458
forming to a trend in your mind?

2712
01:29:08,458 --> 01:29:09,541
Well—
It's one of those things that you can

2713
01:29:09,541 --> 01:29:10,500
only look back at and

2714
01:29:10,500 --> 01:29:13,958
realize it was a trend.

2715
01:29:13,958 --> 01:29:16,083
So apparently, like, say in Britain and

2716
01:29:16,083 --> 01:29:18,208
in France, they had a process where,

2717
01:29:18,208 --> 01:29:20,833
like, they revealed all of their records,

2718
01:29:20,833 --> 01:29:21,958
or all the records they

2719
01:29:21,958 --> 01:29:23,083
supposedly had, right?

2720
01:29:23,083 --> 01:29:24,333
And perhaps a couple of

2721
01:29:24,333 --> 01:29:25,458
other countries did that, too?

2722
01:29:25,458 --> 01:29:27,916
Conden Report in the U.K. and

2723
01:29:27,916 --> 01:29:28,958
the name is slipping my name.

2724
01:29:28,958 --> 01:29:29,958
I think it was from France.

2725
01:29:29,958 --> 01:29:30,916
Right.
And it's also a C name, I think, or something.

2726
01:29:31,958 --> 01:29:32,791
Yes.

2727
01:29:32,791 --> 01:29:33,833
Right.

2728
01:29:33,833 --> 01:29:35,583
So it starts with a C. But anyway.

2729
01:29:35,583 --> 01:29:36,375
Okay.

2730
01:29:36,375 --> 01:29:38,875
So those are more dramatic than the U.S.

2731
01:29:38,875 --> 01:29:41,875
has done in some sense, but they still

2732
01:29:41,875 --> 01:29:44,833
didn't change the conversation, really.

2733
01:29:44,833 --> 01:29:45,958
Basically, those governments could then

2734
01:29:45,958 --> 01:29:47,041
just say, "And we've shut this all down.

2735
01:29:47,041 --> 01:29:48,750
We're not doing it anymore."

2736
01:29:48,750 --> 01:29:49,875
And just have that be

2737
01:29:49,875 --> 01:29:52,166
their story after that, right?

2738
01:29:52,166 --> 01:29:54,791
So why isn't that the most odd thing to

2739
01:29:54,791 --> 01:29:55,541
suspect about the U.S.?

2740
01:29:55,541 --> 01:29:57,916
So we'll just do that same thing, right?

2741
01:29:58,083 --> 01:30:01,666
We'll publish a bunch of reports.

2742
01:30:01,666 --> 01:30:02,958
We'll say, "See, we're being open about

2743
01:30:02,958 --> 01:30:04,791
it," and then go back to

2744
01:30:04,791 --> 01:30:07,625
what they were doing before.

2745
01:30:07,625 --> 01:30:10,958
Do you want that to happen?

2746
01:30:10,958 --> 01:30:13,333
Will that signify to you that, "Okay, I

2747
01:30:13,333 --> 01:30:14,625
guess there's nothing here?"

2748
01:30:14,625 --> 01:30:17,083
No.
You can go back to your normal work?

2749
01:30:17,083 --> 01:30:20,291
I think that we already have worldwide

2750
01:30:20,291 --> 01:30:22,125
over the last half century enough

2751
01:30:22,125 --> 01:30:23,750
evidence that you should, like, seriously

2752
01:30:23,750 --> 01:30:24,333
be thinking about what

2753
01:30:24,333 --> 01:30:26,083
the hell is going on here.

2754
01:30:26,083 --> 01:30:26,916
I agree with you.

2755
01:30:27,500 --> 01:30:29,166
And so the question is,

2756
01:30:29,166 --> 01:30:30,750
what more would it take?

2757
01:30:30,750 --> 01:30:32,958
It seems like the thing it would take is

2758
01:30:32,958 --> 01:30:34,833
some sort of consensus

2759
01:30:34,833 --> 01:30:37,916
among intellectual elites.

2760
01:30:37,916 --> 01:30:38,916
I haven't thought about it this much, but

2761
01:30:38,916 --> 01:30:40,625
it looks like the real limiting factor

2762
01:30:40,625 --> 01:30:44,833
here is, say, academic elites.

2763
01:30:44,833 --> 01:30:46,958
I think they are kind of anti, and as

2764
01:30:46,958 --> 01:30:49,125
long as they stay anti, government wants

2765
01:30:49,125 --> 01:30:51,750
to sort of seem respected by them.

2766
01:30:51,750 --> 01:30:52,250
I don't know.

2767
01:30:52,500 --> 01:30:56,000
I mean, if many militaries around the

2768
01:30:56,000 --> 01:30:57,666
government were all to get together and

2769
01:30:57,666 --> 01:31:00,125
issue a joint declaration that, "Hey,

2770
01:31:00,125 --> 01:31:01,791
this is real and this isn't from us,"

2771
01:31:01,791 --> 01:31:03,416
well, that would—but what's

2772
01:31:03,416 --> 01:31:04,208
the chance they would do that?

2773
01:31:04,208 --> 01:31:04,666
I don't know.

2774
01:31:04,666 --> 01:31:07,500
It's tough to get militaries to admit

2775
01:31:07,500 --> 01:31:08,125
uncertainty, because

2776
01:31:08,125 --> 01:31:10,000
that is a vulnerability.

2777
01:31:10,000 --> 01:31:12,083
And I thought it was a big step when the

2778
01:31:12,083 --> 01:31:14,041
United States took this up and said,

2779
01:31:14,041 --> 01:31:15,000
"Hey, we don't know

2780
01:31:15,000 --> 01:31:16,916
what's over our airspace.

2781
01:31:16,916 --> 01:31:18,833
We're going to introduce reporting to

2782
01:31:18,833 --> 01:31:19,916
better understand it."

2783
01:31:21,166 --> 01:31:22,583
There's perhaps—you know, I can

2784
01:31:22,583 --> 01:31:24,875
envision a way where this is approached

2785
01:31:24,875 --> 01:31:27,458
at the UN, and I think

2786
01:31:27,458 --> 01:31:28,500
there's a pitch that can be made.

2787
01:31:28,500 --> 01:31:29,500
We don't want to have

2788
01:31:29,500 --> 01:31:30,958
uncertainty in our combat space.

2789
01:31:30,958 --> 01:31:33,333
Neither side does, because that increases

2790
01:31:33,333 --> 01:31:36,041
the chance for problems.

2791
01:31:36,041 --> 01:31:37,583
Same thing with aviation safety.

2792
01:31:37,583 --> 01:31:38,625
We want to be able to

2793
01:31:38,625 --> 01:31:39,625
address those things.

2794
01:31:39,625 --> 01:31:42,500
So can we admit, perhaps not even just as

2795
01:31:42,500 --> 01:31:43,750
the United States, but as an

2796
01:31:43,750 --> 01:31:45,291
international community, that there is

2797
01:31:45,291 --> 01:31:47,333
something that we don't know what it is

2798
01:31:47,333 --> 01:31:48,333
and look to work

2799
01:31:48,333 --> 01:31:48,916
together to figure it out?

2800
01:31:49,416 --> 01:31:52,000
I think that would be a good step.

2801
01:31:52,000 --> 01:31:54,083
So I have this book, my second book,

2802
01:31:54,083 --> 01:31:54,958
called "The Elephant and the

2803
01:31:54,958 --> 01:31:55,541
Marine—Hidden

2804
01:31:55,541 --> 01:31:57,333
Motives in Everyday Life."

2805
01:31:57,333 --> 01:32:00,208
And just briefly, it's about all sorts of

2806
01:32:00,208 --> 01:32:02,541
ways that we are just wrong about big

2807
01:32:02,541 --> 01:32:04,333
things about our own motives.

2808
01:32:04,333 --> 01:32:06,041
That is, we don't actually

2809
01:32:06,041 --> 01:32:07,291
go to the doctor to get well.

2810
01:32:07,291 --> 01:32:08,416
We go to show that we care.

2811
01:32:08,416 --> 01:32:09,833
We don't actually go to school to learn.

2812
01:32:09,833 --> 01:32:11,666
We go to show that we're conscientious

2813
01:32:11,666 --> 01:32:12,916
and conformist and intelligent.

2814
01:32:13,416 --> 01:32:15,791
There's a bunch of big things in our

2815
01:32:15,791 --> 01:32:18,208
world where we—the evidence is pretty

2816
01:32:18,208 --> 01:32:19,875
clear, and we don't admit it, and that

2817
01:32:19,875 --> 01:32:22,541
goes on for centuries.

2818
01:32:22,541 --> 01:32:24,708
So that doesn't make me terribly

2819
01:32:24,708 --> 01:32:26,583
optimistic that if you discover a thing

2820
01:32:26,583 --> 01:32:29,083
that's true but that the world won't

2821
01:32:29,083 --> 01:32:30,375
admit it, that you're going to get the

2822
01:32:30,375 --> 01:32:32,625
world to admit it soon.

2823
01:32:32,625 --> 01:32:35,041
You might, but some of these things just

2824
01:32:35,041 --> 01:32:37,708
go on for centuries and even longer.

2825
01:32:38,166 --> 01:32:40,583
There's just a lot of things about which

2826
01:32:40,583 --> 01:32:42,166
sort of official authorities don't want

2827
01:32:42,166 --> 01:32:44,708
to admit, because it's awkward.

2828
01:32:44,708 --> 01:32:47,833
Have you found a parameter or a trigger

2829
01:32:47,833 --> 01:32:53,625
that moves it to the other side?

2830
01:32:53,625 --> 01:32:59,083
One interesting example is—I'm blanking

2831
01:32:59,083 --> 01:33:01,875
on the word—superstition.

2832
01:33:03,833 --> 01:33:06,125
So centuries ago, most everyone was

2833
01:33:06,125 --> 01:33:09,958
superstitious, and most everyone kind of

2834
01:33:09,958 --> 01:33:12,083
had to go along with accepting the idea

2835
01:33:12,083 --> 01:33:14,333
that superstition was legitimate.

2836
01:33:14,333 --> 01:33:17,750
There were things to be superstitious of.

2837
01:33:17,750 --> 01:33:20,208
And somehow over the last few centuries,

2838
01:33:20,208 --> 01:33:21,083
certainly among elites,

2839
01:33:21,083 --> 01:33:23,625
that's just become not a thing.

2840
01:33:23,625 --> 01:33:24,875
Elites don't talk that

2841
01:33:24,875 --> 01:33:25,916
much about superstition.

2842
01:33:26,708 --> 01:33:28,208
It's throwing salt over your shoulder,

2843
01:33:28,208 --> 01:33:29,375
and you saw all those little things,

2844
01:33:29,375 --> 01:33:32,041
because it's at odds with the

2845
01:33:32,041 --> 01:33:34,916
usual elite view of the world.

2846
01:33:34,916 --> 01:33:35,916
But that took a while.

2847
01:33:35,916 --> 01:33:37,333
It took a long time.

2848
01:33:37,333 --> 01:33:38,833
It was slow and gradual.

2849
01:33:38,833 --> 01:33:40,625
It just faded away, right?

2850
01:33:40,625 --> 01:33:42,458
Is that associated with our ability to

2851
01:33:42,458 --> 01:33:45,750
not control the wider universe?

2852
01:33:45,750 --> 01:33:48,708
It's associated with science and tech

2853
01:33:48,708 --> 01:33:51,166
just becoming very high status and in

2854
01:33:51,166 --> 01:33:52,916
some sense becoming our new religion.

2855
01:33:53,958 --> 01:33:56,583
It used to be the church was the highest

2856
01:33:56,583 --> 01:33:59,541
authority, and in some sense academic

2857
01:33:59,541 --> 01:34:01,750
science is our highest authority.

2858
01:34:01,750 --> 01:34:03,166
Even journalists defer to it.

2859
01:34:03,166 --> 01:34:05,041
Government defers to it.

2860
01:34:05,041 --> 01:34:07,708
And so it says superstition is stupid,

2861
01:34:07,708 --> 01:34:10,833
and so people are reluctant to seem

2862
01:34:10,833 --> 01:34:12,708
stupid by associating

2863
01:34:12,708 --> 01:34:13,666
themselves with superstition.

2864
01:34:14,833 --> 01:34:17,500
And that superstition has gone along with

2865
01:34:17,500 --> 01:34:19,666
fairies and ghosts and all those other

2866
01:34:19,666 --> 01:34:22,000
things and everything else in that

2867
01:34:22,000 --> 01:34:26,750
category, including UAPs.

2868
01:34:26,750 --> 01:34:29,041
And so the question is, what does it take

2869
01:34:29,041 --> 01:34:30,625
to get out of that category?

2870
01:34:30,625 --> 01:34:31,708
So there's some famous

2871
01:34:31,708 --> 01:34:33,500
examples, like asteroids.

2872
01:34:33,500 --> 01:34:35,541
Once upon a time asteroids were in that

2873
01:34:35,541 --> 01:34:37,875
category, and then some scientists

2874
01:34:37,875 --> 01:34:40,208
managed to go and find enough evidence to

2875
01:34:40,208 --> 01:34:41,666
convince others, oh, rocks

2876
01:34:41,666 --> 01:34:42,916
really do fall from the sky.

2877
01:34:44,458 --> 01:34:47,750
It wasn't deeply an anti-view, but it was

2878
01:34:47,750 --> 01:34:49,541
like, that's kind of a silly sort of

2879
01:34:49,541 --> 01:34:51,583
view, but they were convinced.

2880
01:34:51,583 --> 01:34:54,125
And as you know, like there's these high

2881
01:34:54,125 --> 01:34:55,583
pink lightning high up

2882
01:34:55,583 --> 01:34:56,708
in the atmosphere, right?

2883
01:34:56,708 --> 01:34:59,500
And pilots saw this half a century at

2884
01:34:59,500 --> 01:35:02,500
least ago, and they didn't say much about

2885
01:35:02,500 --> 01:35:04,000
it because they were afraid

2886
01:35:04,000 --> 01:35:06,041
of looking drunk or whatever.

2887
01:35:06,041 --> 01:35:08,125
And then NASA took some pictures of it

2888
01:35:08,125 --> 01:35:09,500
two decades ago or something and said,

2889
01:35:09,500 --> 01:35:10,000
look, here they are.

2890
01:35:10,916 --> 01:35:12,166
And the pilot said, yeah, we've been

2891
01:35:12,166 --> 01:35:13,625
seeing that for a while, but like, I

2892
01:35:13,625 --> 01:35:14,708
didn't really want to say anything

2893
01:35:14,708 --> 01:35:16,666
because we didn't want to look stupid.

2894
01:35:16,666 --> 01:35:19,625
So that crossed the line, switched over.

2895
01:35:19,625 --> 01:35:21,375
The ball lightning, people said, you

2896
01:35:21,375 --> 01:35:22,375
know, no, that's crazy.

2897
01:35:22,375 --> 01:35:23,875
And then they made it in the lab.

2898
01:35:23,875 --> 01:35:26,000
So there are these historical examples

2899
01:35:26,000 --> 01:35:28,833
where it switched over, right?

2900
01:35:28,833 --> 01:35:30,583
Some sort of evidence was enough to make

2901
01:35:30,583 --> 01:35:32,541
people take it out of the superstition

2902
01:35:32,541 --> 01:35:35,958
crazy realm and put it into the thing.

2903
01:35:35,958 --> 01:35:37,708
Now, so what would it

2904
01:35:37,708 --> 01:35:38,916
take to do that with UAPs?

2905
01:35:39,458 --> 01:35:42,541
Now, unfortunately, like the problem is

2906
01:35:42,541 --> 01:35:45,208
that sort of the degree of enthusiasm and

2907
01:35:45,208 --> 01:35:48,916
energy for UAPs is much culturally

2908
01:35:48,916 --> 01:35:50,250
stronger than for these

2909
01:35:50,250 --> 01:35:51,666
other things ever was.

2910
01:35:51,666 --> 01:35:53,541
And that makes elites all the more eager

2911
01:35:53,541 --> 01:35:55,208
to distance themselves from it in order

2912
01:35:55,208 --> 01:35:55,916
to show their elites.

2913
01:35:55,916 --> 01:35:58,000
So there's just a lot more energy among

2914
01:35:58,000 --> 01:36:00,541
elites to show that they are not the sort

2915
01:36:00,541 --> 01:36:03,041
of people who believe in UAPs than there

2916
01:36:03,041 --> 01:36:06,166
ever was about ball lightning or the high

2917
01:36:06,166 --> 01:36:07,916
level of pink spires or asteroids.

2918
01:36:08,750 --> 01:36:12,708
So it's a tougher case.

2919
01:36:12,708 --> 01:36:16,083
But, you know, it still could happen, I

2920
01:36:16,083 --> 01:36:19,208
guess, but it would take a substantial

2921
01:36:19,208 --> 01:36:22,958
coordination of powerful and academic and

2922
01:36:22,958 --> 01:36:25,916
intellectual elites to make that switch.

2923
01:36:25,916 --> 01:36:27,791
I mean, so this is related to like, and

2924
01:36:27,791 --> 01:36:28,958
what's the best strategy to do that?

2925
01:36:28,958 --> 01:36:30,958
Like, so some people in the UAP community

2926
01:36:30,958 --> 01:36:33,541
say our best strategy is we're just going

2927
01:36:33,541 --> 01:36:34,666
to push on some things there.

2928
01:36:34,666 --> 01:36:35,416
We're not going to talk

2929
01:36:35,416 --> 01:36:36,916
about what it is, right?

2930
01:36:37,208 --> 01:36:38,500
And that's their story about how they're

2931
01:36:38,500 --> 01:36:39,125
going to get the world

2932
01:36:39,125 --> 01:36:40,791
to take it seriously.

2933
01:36:40,791 --> 01:36:42,416
I'm not sure that's going to work.

2934
01:36:42,416 --> 01:36:43,583
I have doubts about that.

2935
01:36:43,583 --> 01:36:45,458
I see the spirit of it.

2936
01:36:45,458 --> 01:36:46,750
They're saying if you just make this

2937
01:36:46,750 --> 01:36:48,416
claim and not more claims, then you can't

2938
01:36:48,416 --> 01:36:50,083
object more because in some sense people

2939
01:36:50,083 --> 01:36:51,666
have adrected more to the claim, yeah,

2940
01:36:51,666 --> 01:36:53,875
there's aliens there, right?

2941
01:36:53,875 --> 01:36:55,208
But in some sense, when I reflect on it,

2942
01:36:55,208 --> 01:36:57,083
I go, well, yeah, that's because it is a

2943
01:36:57,083 --> 01:36:59,208
plausible jump from there.

2944
01:36:59,208 --> 01:37:01,250
Once you say the stuff is real, the

2945
01:37:01,250 --> 01:37:02,625
aliens isn't that far away.

2946
01:37:03,083 --> 01:37:04,583
In some sense, I think people are being

2947
01:37:04,583 --> 01:37:06,250
honest there to say, well, if you believe

2948
01:37:06,250 --> 01:37:08,041
this stuff is real, then you do kind of

2949
01:37:08,041 --> 01:37:09,041
have to be taking the

2950
01:37:09,041 --> 01:37:10,291
aliens thing seriously.

2951
01:37:10,291 --> 01:37:12,916
And you're being a little disingenuous by

2952
01:37:12,916 --> 01:37:14,041
pretending there's no connection.

2953
01:37:14,041 --> 01:37:15,416
But that's the catch, because some

2954
01:37:15,416 --> 01:37:16,833
people, you just can't engage them on

2955
01:37:16,833 --> 01:37:18,500
that topic when that is in

2956
01:37:18,500 --> 01:37:20,458
the realm of possibility.

2957
01:37:20,458 --> 01:37:22,666
Unless you go straight to that from the

2958
01:37:22,666 --> 01:37:24,166
cosmology point of view, which is why I'm

2959
01:37:24,166 --> 01:37:26,333
trying to do is say, you know, basically

2960
01:37:26,333 --> 01:37:28,916
they're saying this is so crazy unlikely.

2961
01:37:29,625 --> 01:37:31,583
And if we say why, because cosmologists

2962
01:37:31,583 --> 01:37:33,208
have told us so, and I

2963
01:37:33,208 --> 01:37:35,416
say, no, they haven't.

2964
01:37:35,416 --> 01:37:36,625
That's where I'm trying to go and say,

2965
01:37:36,625 --> 01:37:40,291
look, from what we know about cosmology,

2966
01:37:40,291 --> 01:37:42,000
this is not crazy unlikely.

2967
01:37:42,000 --> 01:37:42,833
It might be unlikely, but

2968
01:37:42,833 --> 01:37:44,500
it's not crazy unlikely.

2969
01:37:44,500 --> 01:37:46,625
That's the key difference.

2970
01:37:46,625 --> 01:37:48,000
Can we get people to

2971
01:37:48,000 --> 01:37:50,791
accept it's not crazy unlikely?

2972
01:37:52,166 --> 01:37:55,250
Do you believe we're maybe this doesn't

2973
01:37:55,250 --> 01:37:56,916
fit into your model anymore, but are we

2974
01:37:56,916 --> 01:37:58,708
on a particular side of the great filter

2975
01:37:58,708 --> 01:38:00,250
based off of this new

2976
01:38:00,250 --> 01:38:02,541
model, in your opinion?

2977
01:38:02,541 --> 01:38:04,708
So I wrote about the great filter in

2978
01:38:04,708 --> 01:38:08,125
1998, and it was about a way of reframing

2979
01:38:08,125 --> 01:38:10,125
the Fermi's question, where is everybody

2980
01:38:10,125 --> 01:38:12,583
in terms of a process that leads from

2981
01:38:12,583 --> 01:38:14,250
simple dead matter all the way to

2982
01:38:14,250 --> 01:38:14,875
something that you could

2983
01:38:14,875 --> 01:38:16,416
see in the visible universe.

2984
01:38:17,500 --> 01:38:19,958
And the great filter is whatever it is

2985
01:38:19,958 --> 01:38:21,958
that makes it hard to go all the way from

2986
01:38:21,958 --> 01:38:24,541
one end to the other of that process.

2987
01:38:24,541 --> 01:38:26,375
We are now not all the way

2988
01:38:26,375 --> 01:38:27,541
to the end of that process.

2989
01:38:27,541 --> 01:38:29,208
So we have passed part of the great

2990
01:38:29,208 --> 01:38:30,416
filter, but not all of it.

2991
01:38:30,416 --> 01:38:32,833
And so when I first wrote about that 25

2992
01:38:32,833 --> 01:38:36,583
years ago, the topic was just how far are

2993
01:38:36,583 --> 01:38:37,250
we down this filter?

2994
01:38:37,250 --> 01:38:38,875
And I couldn't really quantify the size

2995
01:38:38,875 --> 01:38:40,500
of this other than to say the total

2996
01:38:40,500 --> 01:38:42,000
filter is really large, but

2997
01:38:42,000 --> 01:38:42,916
we don't know how far down.

2998
01:38:43,416 --> 01:38:45,541
So my recent grabby aliens work can be

2999
01:38:45,541 --> 01:38:47,625
seen as an attempt to basically make a

3000
01:38:47,625 --> 01:38:50,625
numerical model of the great filter.

3001
01:38:50,625 --> 01:38:52,500
And in that numerical model, I can say

3002
01:38:52,500 --> 01:38:55,000
the great filter is so big as to mean

3003
01:38:55,000 --> 01:38:57,416
it's only passed once every million

3004
01:38:57,416 --> 01:39:00,958
galaxies, and then by about now in the

3005
01:39:00,958 --> 01:39:03,166
history of the universe, and then that

3006
01:39:03,166 --> 01:39:04,416
fills up the universe quickly.

3007
01:39:04,416 --> 01:39:06,458
So it's a way of making the great filter

3008
01:39:06,458 --> 01:39:08,958
precise, but it still leaves the question

3009
01:39:08,958 --> 01:39:10,666
open of how much farther do we have to

3010
01:39:10,666 --> 01:39:11,916
go, but now it's more precise.

3011
01:39:12,166 --> 01:39:14,750
So now the way to say is there's a

3012
01:39:14,750 --> 01:39:16,333
process that leads to a quiet alien,

3013
01:39:16,333 --> 01:39:17,958
which is what we are, and then there's

3014
01:39:17,958 --> 01:39:19,541
the last step of the process that leads

3015
01:39:19,541 --> 01:39:21,166
to a loud alien, which goes out and

3016
01:39:21,166 --> 01:39:21,958
becomes visible, which

3017
01:39:21,958 --> 01:39:23,041
is the stuff we don't see.

3018
01:39:23,041 --> 01:39:24,916
So the question is how much more is left

3019
01:39:24,916 --> 01:39:26,916
is the question of the ratio between

3020
01:39:26,916 --> 01:39:29,625
quiet and loud aliens in the universe.

3021
01:39:29,625 --> 01:39:31,250
So if you do a polls or something, people

3022
01:39:31,250 --> 01:39:32,916
think the ratio might be two to one, five

3023
01:39:32,916 --> 01:39:34,958
to one, maybe even ten to one, not that

3024
01:39:34,958 --> 01:39:37,333
much bigger, but often

3025
01:39:37,333 --> 01:39:38,166
substantially bigger than one.

3026
01:39:38,166 --> 01:39:39,916
That is, they think there are more quiets

3027
01:39:39,916 --> 01:39:40,708
than louds out there.

3028
01:39:41,125 --> 01:39:42,291
How are we coming to that?

3029
01:39:42,291 --> 01:39:43,083
I'm just a poll.

3030
01:39:43,083 --> 01:39:43,833
I just asked people.

3031
01:39:43,833 --> 01:39:44,666
Yeah, I know, but I'm just saying, like,

3032
01:39:44,666 --> 01:39:45,500
how are they coming to it?

3033
01:39:45,500 --> 01:39:46,250
So is there any really

3034
01:39:46,250 --> 01:39:47,750
way to make that assessment?

3035
01:39:47,750 --> 01:39:49,041
You could just think about what would be

3036
01:39:49,041 --> 01:39:50,708
the processes by which a

3037
01:39:50,708 --> 01:39:52,083
quiet might become loud or not.

3038
01:39:52,083 --> 01:39:53,083
So you could say, what's the chance that

3039
01:39:53,083 --> 01:39:54,500
we killed themselves, for example, before

3040
01:39:54,500 --> 01:39:56,041
they got to the point of being loud?

3041
01:39:56,041 --> 01:39:57,375
What's the chance they would choose not

3042
01:39:57,375 --> 01:40:00,875
to become loud by doing the sort of thing

3043
01:40:00,875 --> 01:40:03,208
we're postulating the UFO aliens are

3044
01:40:03,208 --> 01:40:04,625
doing of not allowing

3045
01:40:04,625 --> 01:40:05,125
themselves to expand?

3046
01:40:05,375 --> 01:40:07,125
So but otherwise we don't have much

3047
01:40:07,125 --> 01:40:10,541
evidence, but there's this ratio affects

3048
01:40:10,541 --> 01:40:13,166
where is the nearest quiet alien, which

3049
01:40:13,166 --> 01:40:15,250
affects what are the chances that SETI,

3050
01:40:15,250 --> 01:40:16,583
the search for extraterrestrial

3051
01:40:16,583 --> 01:40:18,500
intelligence, could see anything.

3052
01:40:18,500 --> 01:40:21,541
So remember, if the loud ones occur once

3053
01:40:21,541 --> 01:40:24,375
per million galaxies, and then maybe if

3054
01:40:24,375 --> 01:40:26,000
there was a thousand to one ratio, if

3055
01:40:26,000 --> 01:40:27,708
there was a thousand times as many quiet

3056
01:40:27,708 --> 01:40:30,125
to loud, that would mean the nearest

3057
01:40:30,125 --> 01:40:31,541
quiet one was still

3058
01:40:31,541 --> 01:40:32,916
once per thousand galaxies.

3059
01:40:33,083 --> 01:40:35,291
It means the chance of seeing one is

3060
01:40:35,291 --> 01:40:37,000
really low in our own galaxy, and you

3061
01:40:37,000 --> 01:40:38,666
have to look a far away.

3062
01:40:38,666 --> 01:40:39,875
And that's only the chance of

3063
01:40:39,875 --> 01:40:42,541
seeing one and or their ruins.

3064
01:40:42,541 --> 01:40:45,083
So quiet ones you see would last for some

3065
01:40:45,083 --> 01:40:47,125
duration and then end.

3066
01:40:47,125 --> 01:40:49,375
In order to see a quiet civilization out

3067
01:40:49,375 --> 01:40:51,541
there, you'd have a much better chance of

3068
01:40:51,541 --> 01:40:53,708
seeing its ruins than seeing it, because

3069
01:40:53,708 --> 01:40:55,708
it would have to be active at

3070
01:40:55,708 --> 01:40:56,916
the moment you're seeing it.

3071
01:40:57,875 --> 01:41:00,166
And so we do some calculations in our

3072
01:41:00,166 --> 01:41:03,500
paper to say, unless this ratio is really

3073
01:41:03,500 --> 01:41:05,750
huge, there's the chances for SETI are

3074
01:41:05,750 --> 01:41:07,291
pretty low, at least given current

3075
01:41:07,291 --> 01:41:08,458
technology, you're just not going to see

3076
01:41:08,458 --> 01:41:11,125
anything because they're not that common.

3077
01:41:11,125 --> 01:41:14,583
But that ratio is the same ratio as our

3078
01:41:14,583 --> 01:41:17,000
chances of becoming loud from now, you

3079
01:41:17,000 --> 01:41:17,958
know, assuming we're the

3080
01:41:17,958 --> 01:41:18,916
same as everybody else.

3081
01:41:19,500 --> 01:41:21,541
And so that could still be, say, a

3082
01:41:21,541 --> 01:41:23,583
thousand to one, or at least ten to one,

3083
01:41:23,583 --> 01:41:25,958
which means our chances

3084
01:41:25,958 --> 01:41:28,958
most likely we won't make it.

3085
01:41:28,958 --> 01:41:30,041
But we really don't have

3086
01:41:30,041 --> 01:41:31,500
any sort of basis here.

3087
01:41:31,500 --> 01:41:33,708
It could be it's only, you know, two to

3088
01:41:33,708 --> 01:41:35,000
one, i.e., you know, half of

3089
01:41:35,000 --> 01:41:37,000
them do and half of them don't.

3090
01:41:37,000 --> 01:41:38,500
So that's the part that we just don't

3091
01:41:38,500 --> 01:41:39,625
have any other data to

3092
01:41:39,625 --> 01:41:41,291
pin it down in our analysis.

3093
01:41:41,291 --> 01:41:43,291
We just have to say, here's the

3094
01:41:43,291 --> 01:41:43,916
consequences of different ratios.

3095
01:41:44,541 --> 01:41:47,500
Is there a thought that perhaps the

3096
01:41:47,500 --> 01:41:49,750
expansionary, the grabbingness is

3097
01:41:49,750 --> 01:41:52,083
inherent to the creature instead of

3098
01:41:52,083 --> 01:41:53,416
something that has to change over time?

3099
01:41:53,416 --> 01:41:54,791
It's a natural state

3100
01:41:54,791 --> 01:41:57,500
of that intelligence?

3101
01:41:57,500 --> 01:41:59,333
I mean, presumably, if we had a data set

3102
01:41:59,333 --> 01:42:01,583
about all the quiet aliens and all the

3103
01:42:01,583 --> 01:42:03,500
ones that became loud, we would find

3104
01:42:03,500 --> 01:42:04,541
correlations that predicted

3105
01:42:04,541 --> 01:42:06,125
which quiet ones become loud.

3106
01:42:06,125 --> 01:42:07,750
But we don't know what those are now.

3107
01:42:07,750 --> 01:42:09,250
So it's pretty hard to guess.

3108
01:42:09,250 --> 01:42:10,291
Just didn't know if that was something

3109
01:42:10,291 --> 01:42:10,916
you had thought about at all.

3110
01:42:11,250 --> 01:42:12,291
I mean, a lot of people, I'm sure, would

3111
01:42:12,291 --> 01:42:14,416
have opinions on it.

3112
01:42:14,416 --> 01:42:15,625
We could talk about opinions a little bit

3113
01:42:15,625 --> 01:42:16,416
if you want to get

3114
01:42:16,416 --> 01:42:18,208
outside the model, but...

3115
01:42:18,208 --> 01:42:20,375
Well, so there's long been this history

3116
01:42:20,375 --> 01:42:23,375
in, say, cosmology of people talking

3117
01:42:23,375 --> 01:42:26,125
about how, you know, alien civilizations

3118
01:42:26,125 --> 01:42:28,166
probably wouldn't be expanding because

3119
01:42:28,166 --> 01:42:29,000
that would be

3120
01:42:29,000 --> 01:42:30,125
aggressive and not peaceful.

3121
01:42:30,125 --> 01:42:32,500
So people have said civilizations reach a

3122
01:42:32,500 --> 01:42:34,000
point in their lives where if they don't

3123
01:42:34,000 --> 01:42:35,583
learn to be peaceful, they destroy

3124
01:42:35,583 --> 01:42:36,541
themselves and

3125
01:42:36,541 --> 01:42:37,041
disappear from the picture.

3126
01:42:37,333 --> 01:42:39,000
And so the only things you'll ever see

3127
01:42:39,000 --> 01:42:40,541
later on would be civilizations that

3128
01:42:40,541 --> 01:42:42,291
learn to be peaceful and therefore are

3129
01:42:42,291 --> 01:42:45,375
not grabby and do not have war and do not

3130
01:42:45,375 --> 01:42:46,500
have conflict because

3131
01:42:46,500 --> 01:42:48,041
they're all peaceful.

3132
01:42:48,041 --> 01:42:48,750
That seems to be

3133
01:42:48,750 --> 01:42:50,166
pretty implausible to me.

3134
01:42:50,166 --> 01:42:50,958
It's a nice thought, and

3135
01:42:50,958 --> 01:42:52,125
it's one I've had, but...

3136
01:42:52,125 --> 01:42:54,916
Right. So, but that would be a popular

3137
01:42:54,916 --> 01:42:56,041
theory for a long time, right?

3138
01:42:56,041 --> 01:42:57,833
Which is that it's the peaceful

3139
01:42:57,833 --> 01:43:01,666
civilizations who manage to survive.

3140
01:43:01,666 --> 01:43:02,916
The anthropomorphic, I think, but...

3141
01:43:03,916 --> 01:43:06,541
Right. It's sort of celebrating the thing

3142
01:43:06,541 --> 01:43:08,208
about our current civilizations that

3143
01:43:08,208 --> 01:43:09,625
people are most proud of, perhaps, but I

3144
01:43:09,625 --> 01:43:10,666
don't think it's that

3145
01:43:10,666 --> 01:43:12,583
predictive of the future.

3146
01:43:12,583 --> 01:43:14,500
When I saw your interviews, previews with

3147
01:43:14,500 --> 01:43:16,958
other people and other pilots' things, in

3148
01:43:16,958 --> 01:43:18,791
my mind, the thing that comes to mind is

3149
01:43:18,791 --> 01:43:20,875
these skeptics who say, "You guys were

3150
01:43:20,875 --> 01:43:22,541
just seeing birds in balloons," and they

3151
01:43:22,541 --> 01:43:25,000
draw, like, line diagrams or whatever,

3152
01:43:25,000 --> 01:43:26,541
and they tell you, "This is the velocity

3153
01:43:26,541 --> 01:43:27,791
and the distance, and therefore this is

3154
01:43:27,791 --> 01:43:28,291
all consistent with this."

3155
01:43:28,666 --> 01:43:32,625
And I go, "Wouldn't pilots have seen

3156
01:43:32,625 --> 01:43:35,708
birds in balloons before? Wouldn't that

3157
01:43:35,708 --> 01:43:37,208
be part of their environment? Wouldn't

3158
01:43:37,208 --> 01:43:38,791
they know kind of how to

3159
01:43:38,791 --> 01:43:40,000
notice birds in balloons?"

3160
01:43:40,000 --> 01:43:42,083
But I don't hear you guys saying that, so

3161
01:43:42,083 --> 01:43:43,583
I figure, I mean, it seems to me like

3162
01:43:43,583 --> 01:43:44,375
you'd be kind of

3163
01:43:44,375 --> 01:43:46,083
insulted to have to say this.

3164
01:43:46,083 --> 01:43:48,250
"I'm a fighter pilot with a $50 million

3165
01:43:48,250 --> 01:43:49,625
machine, and yeah, I've seen birds in

3166
01:43:49,625 --> 01:43:50,583
balloons for God's sake, but

3167
01:43:50,583 --> 01:43:51,750
I know what they look like."

3168
01:43:51,750 --> 01:43:53,250
But I think you should

3169
01:43:53,250 --> 01:43:53,958
say that more directly.

3170
01:43:53,958 --> 01:43:55,166
I feel like I said it at some point. I

3171
01:43:55,166 --> 01:43:55,916
don't know if I've made it in, but...

3172
01:43:56,666 --> 01:44:01,375
So let's talk about that. It's fair. So

3173
01:44:01,375 --> 01:44:02,166
birds, let's talk about

3174
01:44:02,166 --> 01:44:03,333
birds. They're a real issue.

3175
01:44:03,333 --> 01:44:05,291
Did you watch the new Top Gun movie?

3176
01:44:05,291 --> 01:44:06,708
I did, yeah.

3177
01:44:06,708 --> 01:44:08,458
So I thought they did a really good job

3178
01:44:08,458 --> 01:44:10,416
of showing how an emergency happens in

3179
01:44:10,416 --> 01:44:13,166
the jet, so they just got done a very

3180
01:44:13,166 --> 01:44:15,166
difficult and stressful experience, and

3181
01:44:15,166 --> 01:44:16,333
all of a sudden, boom, they got hit in

3182
01:44:16,333 --> 01:44:18,708
the face with a bunch of birds.

3183
01:44:18,708 --> 01:44:20,416
That's how those things tend to happen.

3184
01:44:20,416 --> 01:44:21,083
I believe.

3185
01:44:21,083 --> 01:44:21,791
I thought that was a

3186
01:44:21,791 --> 01:44:22,750
really great example of it.

3187
01:44:23,541 --> 01:44:26,041
So birds are a real problem. They can

3188
01:44:26,041 --> 01:44:27,250
come through the cockpit

3189
01:44:27,250 --> 01:44:28,750
glass and take the pilot out.

3190
01:44:28,750 --> 01:44:31,083
I've seen stories of pilots getting

3191
01:44:31,083 --> 01:44:32,041
knocked out from birds.

3192
01:44:32,041 --> 01:44:33,458
Makes sense.

3193
01:44:33,458 --> 01:44:34,458
Obviously losing engine

3194
01:44:34,458 --> 01:44:36,791
wings, all that stuff.

3195
01:44:36,791 --> 01:44:38,500
So I was trained by the Navy as an

3196
01:44:38,500 --> 01:44:40,458
aviation safety officer, which means I

3197
01:44:40,458 --> 01:44:43,541
spent six weeks in Pensacola, Florida,

3198
01:44:43,541 --> 01:44:45,083
basically becoming the subject matter

3199
01:44:45,083 --> 01:44:48,041
expert on preventing accidents, training

3200
01:44:48,041 --> 01:44:49,916
my squadron to the proper standards.

3201
01:44:50,333 --> 01:44:52,333
Also, if there is a crash, do actually be

3202
01:44:52,333 --> 01:44:54,583
the one responsible for going out there,

3203
01:44:54,583 --> 01:44:56,416
picking the pieces up, and figuring out

3204
01:44:56,416 --> 01:44:57,583
what happened. There's no

3205
01:44:57,583 --> 01:44:58,958
special team that comes in.

3206
01:44:58,958 --> 01:45:01,250
But the question would be, when you

3207
01:45:01,250 --> 01:45:03,500
haven't crashed into the birds yet, do

3208
01:45:03,500 --> 01:45:06,208
you see sometimes them on radar, on your

3209
01:45:06,208 --> 01:45:07,083
infrared, or other

3210
01:45:07,083 --> 01:45:08,916
device, or even by eye?

3211
01:45:08,916 --> 01:45:11,041
Would you then know what that looked

3212
01:45:11,041 --> 01:45:11,833
like? So you know how

3213
01:45:11,833 --> 01:45:12,583
to tell the difference.

3214
01:45:13,208 --> 01:45:15,083
So the difference is that these are

3215
01:45:15,083 --> 01:45:16,583
common occurrences, and a lot of airports

3216
01:45:16,583 --> 01:45:18,916
actually have bird radars. And so every

3217
01:45:18,916 --> 01:45:20,875
day before we go flying, we'll brief the

3218
01:45:20,875 --> 01:45:24,041
bash condition, the bird activity.

3219
01:45:24,041 --> 01:45:26,041
And if it's too high,

3220
01:45:26,041 --> 01:45:27,958
we'll cancel the event.

3221
01:45:27,958 --> 01:45:30,208
We don't necessarily, I don't want to get

3222
01:45:30,208 --> 01:45:32,416
too much, well, I don't want to get too

3223
01:45:32,416 --> 01:45:34,750
much into this, but they're not something

3224
01:45:34,750 --> 01:45:38,541
that's presented to our radar.

3225
01:45:38,541 --> 01:45:39,458
Just leave it at that.

3226
01:45:40,000 --> 01:45:40,916
That would mean these radar

3227
01:45:40,916 --> 01:45:43,500
sightings wouldn't be birds.

3228
01:45:43,500 --> 01:45:45,125
If there's a radar sighting and the birds

3229
01:45:45,125 --> 01:45:46,916
don't show up on the radar, then these

3230
01:45:46,916 --> 01:45:48,333
radar sightings would not be birds? Is

3231
01:45:48,333 --> 01:45:49,333
that a safe assumption?

3232
01:45:49,333 --> 01:45:50,750
It's a safe assumption. I can't say with

3233
01:45:50,750 --> 01:45:52,750
100% a certain date that nothing on a

3234
01:45:52,750 --> 01:45:54,333
radar has ever seen a bird. I'm pretty

3235
01:45:54,333 --> 01:45:55,375
sure you could lock

3236
01:45:55,375 --> 01:45:57,125
one up if you wanted to.

3237
01:45:57,125 --> 01:45:58,666
But you're not going to be presented that

3238
01:45:58,666 --> 01:46:01,291
as like a normal target. It's just too

3239
01:46:01,291 --> 01:46:02,333
far outside of the spectrum.

3240
01:46:02,333 --> 01:46:03,750
And mylar balloons or

3241
01:46:03,750 --> 01:46:04,750
other sorts of balloons.

3242
01:46:05,291 --> 01:46:07,166
Then we talk about some birds are common,

3243
01:46:07,166 --> 01:46:10,916
but very easily identifiable. And then

3244
01:46:10,916 --> 01:46:13,541
balloons, they're not overly common, but

3245
01:46:13,541 --> 01:46:14,250
they're certainly something we

3246
01:46:14,250 --> 01:46:15,250
deal with on a regular basis.

3247
01:46:15,250 --> 01:46:16,708
So there are some that are tethered

3248
01:46:16,708 --> 01:46:18,375
across the U.S. and

3249
01:46:18,375 --> 01:46:20,833
we see those regularly.

3250
01:46:20,833 --> 01:46:22,541
Like you'd expect a balloon, you know,

3251
01:46:22,541 --> 01:46:24,583
kind of bullet shaped with some

3252
01:46:24,583 --> 01:46:25,500
stabilators on the back of it.

3253
01:46:25,500 --> 01:46:27,416
And so you're used to seeing balloons on

3254
01:46:27,416 --> 01:46:29,000
your radar, in your

3255
01:46:29,000 --> 01:46:29,916
infrared, in your other sightings.

3256
01:46:30,458 --> 01:46:32,541
You know roughly what that looks like,

3257
01:46:32,541 --> 01:46:34,416
right? You see them often. So whatever

3258
01:46:34,416 --> 01:46:36,583
other thing you say, and you say this

3259
01:46:36,583 --> 01:46:38,208
isn't a balloon, you're doing it on the

3260
01:46:38,208 --> 01:46:40,166
basis of some background of having seen

3261
01:46:40,166 --> 01:46:41,000
balloons and saying this

3262
01:46:41,000 --> 01:46:41,958
doesn't look like a balloon.

3263
01:46:41,958 --> 01:46:42,541
Very much so.

3264
01:46:42,541 --> 01:46:44,666
And so that would suggest that the theory

3265
01:46:44,666 --> 01:46:47,125
that this is a balloon has some strong

3266
01:46:47,125 --> 01:46:47,916
obstacles in

3267
01:46:47,916 --> 01:46:48,791
accounting for this evidence.

3268
01:46:48,791 --> 01:46:50,875
It has to explain why it is that even

3269
01:46:50,875 --> 01:46:52,083
though you're experienced with balloons,

3270
01:46:52,083 --> 01:46:53,000
somehow to you this

3271
01:46:53,000 --> 01:46:54,208
didn't look like a balloon.

3272
01:46:54,208 --> 01:46:54,541
Exactly.

3273
01:46:54,541 --> 01:46:56,250
And do you think they have adequately

3274
01:46:56,250 --> 01:46:56,916
addressed that issue?

3275
01:46:57,458 --> 01:47:00,041
Yeah, so I guess exactly that's exactly

3276
01:47:00,041 --> 01:47:01,666
right. In our experiences we deal with

3277
01:47:01,666 --> 01:47:03,041
balloons, we deal with birds, some of

3278
01:47:03,041 --> 01:47:04,958
those almost on a daily basis.

3279
01:47:04,958 --> 01:47:07,291
So we are very familiar with them and we

3280
01:47:07,291 --> 01:47:09,458
would not see those as exciting,

3281
01:47:09,458 --> 01:47:11,333
interesting objects to get super hyped

3282
01:47:11,333 --> 01:47:12,166
and bring the admiral

3283
01:47:12,166 --> 01:47:14,125
down to show them it.

3284
01:47:14,125 --> 01:47:16,083
So what specifically is it about these

3285
01:47:16,083 --> 01:47:18,291
sightings that makes you say that's not a

3286
01:47:18,291 --> 01:47:19,666
balloon and that's not a bird?

3287
01:47:19,666 --> 01:47:21,916
Yeah. So the behaviors we'd expect to see

3288
01:47:21,916 --> 01:47:23,166
from a balloon are one of

3289
01:47:23,166 --> 01:47:23,916
three things essentially.

3290
01:47:24,125 --> 01:47:26,416
We would expect it to proceed with the

3291
01:47:26,416 --> 01:47:29,875
wind in some fashion. We'd expect it to

3292
01:47:29,875 --> 01:47:32,666
remain stationary over a loose area.

3293
01:47:32,666 --> 01:47:34,625
Right? So kind of it was tethered and

3294
01:47:34,625 --> 01:47:38,000
drifting around with some radius.

3295
01:47:38,000 --> 01:47:39,916
Or we might even expect if it was perhaps

3296
01:47:39,916 --> 01:47:42,083
an adversarial platform to have some

3297
01:47:42,083 --> 01:47:44,416
limited capabilities in maneuvering for

3298
01:47:44,416 --> 01:47:45,208
short amounts of time.

3299
01:47:45,208 --> 01:47:46,875
For low velocity.

3300
01:47:46,875 --> 01:47:47,916
Yes. At low velocity.

3301
01:47:48,500 --> 01:47:52,541
So that's all good and we see parts of

3302
01:47:52,541 --> 01:47:54,375
that when we're off the eastern seaboard.

3303
01:47:54,375 --> 01:47:55,625
But when you zoom out and you look at all

3304
01:47:55,625 --> 01:47:57,208
the behaviors, you don't see that.

3305
01:47:57,208 --> 01:48:00,083
You see these objects moving quickly,

3306
01:48:00,083 --> 01:48:02,375
250, 350 knots. You see

3307
01:48:02,375 --> 01:48:04,500
them at high and low altitudes.

3308
01:48:04,500 --> 01:48:07,416
You see them performing almost

3309
01:48:07,416 --> 01:48:07,916
balloon-like behaviors.

3310
01:48:08,833 --> 01:48:12,250
And what I mean by that is not overly

3311
01:48:12,250 --> 01:48:13,666
linear flight path, but kind of

3312
01:48:13,666 --> 01:48:16,333
meandering a bit, but against the wind

3313
01:48:16,333 --> 01:48:18,500
for long periods of time.

3314
01:48:18,500 --> 01:48:21,083
Or being perfectly stationary

3315
01:48:21,083 --> 01:48:22,250
in those high winds as well.

3316
01:48:22,250 --> 01:48:24,250
Not just kind of bawling around tightly,

3317
01:48:24,250 --> 01:48:27,375
but stationary fixed at 20,000

3318
01:48:27,375 --> 01:48:30,125
feet, say, in 120 knot winds.

3319
01:48:30,125 --> 01:48:32,208
And although those might be radar

3320
01:48:32,208 --> 01:48:34,000
artifacts, sometimes you see them also

3321
01:48:34,000 --> 01:48:35,958
through other means, which convinces you

3322
01:48:35,958 --> 01:48:36,916
they're not just radar artifacts.

3323
01:48:37,500 --> 01:48:39,083
We were initially seeing them just on a

3324
01:48:39,083 --> 01:48:41,916
radar and we thought they were radar

3325
01:48:41,916 --> 01:48:43,583
artifacts, as you say.

3326
01:48:43,583 --> 01:48:45,125
But then we were able to correlate that

3327
01:48:45,125 --> 01:48:46,875
with our other sensor system, our AT

3328
01:48:46,875 --> 01:48:49,833
FLIR, which is an electro-opical IR,

3329
01:48:49,833 --> 01:48:52,666
infrared energy detection device.

3330
01:48:52,666 --> 01:48:54,666
And so, OK, hey, the radar is dropping

3331
01:48:54,666 --> 01:48:57,000
our camera sensor off essentially at this

3332
01:48:57,000 --> 01:48:58,666
piece of sky and now there's something

3333
01:48:58,666 --> 01:48:59,500
there on our camera.

3334
01:48:59,500 --> 01:49:01,708
So the assumption is at this point that

3335
01:49:01,708 --> 01:49:02,916
they're physical objects.

3336
01:49:04,041 --> 01:49:05,708
And just to be clear, the things that

3337
01:49:05,708 --> 01:49:08,541
were moving at 200 and 300 knots are also

3338
01:49:08,541 --> 01:49:10,833
the things, the same thing that you saw.

3339
01:49:10,833 --> 01:49:12,875
It's not like a separate thing, right?

3340
01:49:12,875 --> 01:49:14,166
That would be the key point.

3341
01:49:14,166 --> 01:49:15,291
Like, this couldn't be a balloon because

3342
01:49:15,291 --> 01:49:17,000
that same thing on the radar was moving

3343
01:49:17,000 --> 01:49:18,708
at 300 knots a few minutes ago.

3344
01:49:18,708 --> 01:49:19,708
Correct.

3345
01:49:19,708 --> 01:49:21,333
So, yes, they would sometimes be

3346
01:49:21,333 --> 01:49:22,958
stationary, perfectly stationary, and

3347
01:49:22,958 --> 01:49:26,166
then begin moving at those high speeds.

3348
01:49:26,166 --> 01:49:27,791
And we'd do these for

3349
01:49:27,791 --> 01:49:28,791
long periods of time.

3350
01:49:28,791 --> 01:49:30,125
So we'd go out there first thing in the

3351
01:49:30,125 --> 01:49:30,625
morning, these

3352
01:49:30,625 --> 01:49:31,125
objects would be out there.

3353
01:49:31,500 --> 01:49:34,291
And as you said earlier, I can conceive

3354
01:49:34,291 --> 01:49:37,000
of trickery, you know, I can conceive of

3355
01:49:37,000 --> 01:49:38,958
perhaps, you know, submarines or some

3356
01:49:38,958 --> 01:49:40,375
devices that were releasing objects over

3357
01:49:40,375 --> 01:49:42,458
a period of time that had, you know, high

3358
01:49:42,458 --> 01:49:44,500
energy density, but also, you know, then

3359
01:49:44,500 --> 01:49:45,708
just went to the ocean or something.

3360
01:49:45,708 --> 01:49:48,041
Right. But that would be, you know, we've

3361
01:49:48,041 --> 01:49:49,791
been seeing it for so long and the

3362
01:49:49,791 --> 01:49:51,291
behaviors that were exhibited just pushes

3363
01:49:51,291 --> 01:49:52,916
that, you know, right.

3364
01:49:52,916 --> 01:49:54,666
Could you make a rough estimate of the

3365
01:49:54,666 --> 01:49:57,125
budget that we required to fool you guys

3366
01:49:57,125 --> 01:49:58,375
over this period of time

3367
01:49:58,375 --> 01:49:58,916
with this scope of activity?

3368
01:49:59,708 --> 01:50:01,000
Like, how big a project

3369
01:50:01,000 --> 01:50:02,375
would that have to be?

3370
01:50:02,375 --> 01:50:03,666
Oh, it would be incredible.

3371
01:50:03,666 --> 01:50:06,375
It would be equivalent, I think, to

3372
01:50:06,375 --> 01:50:08,041
essentially the operations we did in the

3373
01:50:08,041 --> 01:50:10,041
Cold War, where there are stories of, you

3374
01:50:10,041 --> 01:50:11,750
know, arming nuclear weapons and making

3375
01:50:11,750 --> 01:50:13,375
sure that they, you know, they're on a

3376
01:50:13,375 --> 01:50:14,125
timer for a period of time.

3377
01:50:14,125 --> 01:50:15,291
It would be an ongoing, you know,

3378
01:50:15,291 --> 01:50:17,083
multi-billion dollar operation for

3379
01:50:17,083 --> 01:50:17,916
decades at this point.

3380
01:50:19,083 --> 01:50:20,958
You would need, you know, the equivalent

3381
01:50:20,958 --> 01:50:22,500
of probably half of a carrier strike

3382
01:50:22,500 --> 01:50:24,750
group, but underwater or somehow unable

3383
01:50:24,750 --> 01:50:28,000
to be seen, you'd need thousands, perhaps

3384
01:50:28,000 --> 01:50:29,875
tens of thousands of small form factor

3385
01:50:29,875 --> 01:50:31,958
UAVs that would be

3386
01:50:31,958 --> 01:50:34,541
launched and then disposed of.

3387
01:50:34,541 --> 01:50:36,250
And somehow we didn't see that

3388
01:50:36,250 --> 01:50:37,125
intermediary action.

3389
01:50:37,125 --> 01:50:40,041
So like a carrier group is some, what,

3390
01:50:40,041 --> 01:50:42,791
like 5% of the Navy budget or something?

3391
01:50:42,791 --> 01:50:43,791
I don't know that.

3392
01:50:43,791 --> 01:50:44,208
Well, we could look

3393
01:50:44,208 --> 01:50:44,958
it up, whatever it is.

3394
01:50:44,958 --> 01:50:45,916
Like we're talking that level of budget.

3395
01:50:46,583 --> 01:50:47,416
Yeah, that's what you

3396
01:50:47,416 --> 01:50:49,166
would send to a war zone.

3397
01:50:49,166 --> 01:50:50,750
I mean, that's what we go to war.

3398
01:50:50,750 --> 01:50:52,208
So you would have to be spending that

3399
01:50:52,208 --> 01:50:53,458
much to fool you guys.

3400
01:50:53,458 --> 01:50:54,500
You would need, you

3401
01:50:54,500 --> 01:50:56,166
know, manned crews, all that.

3402
01:50:56,166 --> 01:50:56,666
Right.

3403
01:50:56,666 --> 01:50:58,250
And so vastly expensive.

3404
01:50:58,250 --> 01:50:59,500
It would be a huge range of resources.

3405
01:50:59,500 --> 01:51:02,166
So then you get to the point of why, why

3406
01:51:02,166 --> 01:51:03,833
are we doing this to ourselves?

3407
01:51:03,833 --> 01:51:05,416
Why are we doing it in international

3408
01:51:05,416 --> 01:51:07,916
waters where anyone can go underwater and

3409
01:51:07,916 --> 01:51:10,625
under the space and just observe our

3410
01:51:10,625 --> 01:51:12,083
frequencies and our tactics?

3411
01:51:12,083 --> 01:51:12,625
Why don't we use our top secret areas?

3412
01:51:12,625 --> 01:51:13,833
Would somebody see all those submarines

3413
01:51:13,833 --> 01:51:14,625
if they were there or something?

3414
01:51:16,625 --> 01:51:17,833
You would think so, right?

3415
01:51:17,833 --> 01:51:19,208
So I think if somebody was trying to make

3416
01:51:19,208 --> 01:51:20,250
this story happen, it would be just

3417
01:51:20,250 --> 01:51:21,666
cheaper to make you guys lie, right?

3418
01:51:21,666 --> 01:51:23,583
It's just incredibly complicated.

3419
01:51:23,583 --> 01:51:24,916
Would it be?

3420
01:51:24,916 --> 01:51:26,041
I mean, how much can it

3421
01:51:26,041 --> 01:51:28,541
cost to get 100 sailors to lie?

3422
01:51:28,541 --> 01:51:29,125
Yeah.

3423
01:51:29,125 --> 01:51:30,625
Especially to tell them this is your job.

3424
01:51:30,625 --> 01:51:31,541
This is, you know, NASA's

3425
01:51:31,541 --> 01:51:33,500
like, you must lie, right?
We don't have a pretty good liars.

3426
01:51:33,500 --> 01:51:34,833
So it would be incredibly difficult.

3427
01:51:34,833 --> 01:51:36,291
And then there's the why and then the

3428
01:51:36,291 --> 01:51:37,625
period of time and then all the other

3429
01:51:37,625 --> 01:51:38,958
lying that would have to go around to

3430
01:51:38,958 --> 01:51:41,000
support it in a very public fashion that

3431
01:51:41,000 --> 01:51:43,000
for me, the thought that it is our

3432
01:51:43,000 --> 01:51:43,916
government doing this is pretty close to zero for me at the moment.

3433
01:51:44,791 --> 01:51:47,041
Or at least the part of the government

3434
01:51:47,041 --> 01:51:48,250
you know of or just any

3435
01:51:48,250 --> 01:51:48,666
part of the government?

3436
01:51:48,666 --> 01:51:50,333
I would say the part of government that I

3437
01:51:50,333 --> 01:51:51,250
know of and that I know

3438
01:51:51,250 --> 01:51:52,625
that I don't know about.

3439
01:51:52,625 --> 01:51:54,083
I don't know the unknowns, but I know

3440
01:51:54,083 --> 01:51:55,083
there's a black world

3441
01:51:55,083 --> 01:51:55,875
that they're lost off.

3442
01:51:55,875 --> 01:51:57,291
I've had security clearance.

3443
01:51:57,291 --> 01:52:00,250
They wouldn't be up to this.

3444
01:52:00,250 --> 01:52:01,375
This is not consistent with

3445
01:52:01,375 --> 01:52:02,541
the behaviors that they do.

3446
01:52:02,541 --> 01:52:03,541
I mean, I've worked in the defense

3447
01:52:03,541 --> 01:52:04,541
industry, I've tested stuff.

3448
01:52:04,541 --> 01:52:05,291
I have some of these fields.

3449
01:52:05,291 --> 01:52:05,916
And that's just one set of sightings, right?

3450
01:52:06,500 --> 01:52:08,500
So there's like thousands of these

3451
01:52:08,500 --> 01:52:10,125
sightings, each one of which might

3452
01:52:10,125 --> 01:52:12,625
require that level of

3453
01:52:12,625 --> 01:52:15,208
budget to make, to fake it.

3454
01:52:15,208 --> 01:52:16,916
And oh, by the way, the currencies that

3455
01:52:16,916 --> 01:52:17,916
are happening off the Eastern Seaboard

3456
01:52:17,916 --> 01:52:19,208
are still happening.

3457
01:52:19,208 --> 01:52:20,875
I'm still talking to pilots who are still

3458
01:52:20,875 --> 01:52:23,250
seeing cubes and spheres.

3459
01:52:23,250 --> 01:52:25,791
But to go back a moment, you are saying

3460
01:52:25,791 --> 01:52:27,958
how it weren't seeing 100 percent of them

3461
01:52:27,958 --> 01:52:28,875
with their eyes, which is true.

3462
01:52:28,875 --> 01:52:30,666
I had a hard time seeing them.

3463
01:52:30,666 --> 01:52:31,541
We would come up to them

3464
01:52:31,541 --> 01:52:32,541
in very controlled fashion.

3465
01:52:32,541 --> 01:52:33,583
We would expect to see them.

3466
01:52:33,583 --> 01:52:34,916
Our sensors are showing it.

3467
01:52:35,583 --> 01:52:36,208
But we can't see them.

3468
01:52:36,208 --> 01:52:37,958
We turn around, they're there again.

3469
01:52:37,958 --> 01:52:38,916
But eventually we did

3470
01:52:38,916 --> 01:52:40,083
actually gain sight of them.

3471
01:52:40,083 --> 01:52:41,583
It was a particular case because the

3472
01:52:41,583 --> 01:52:43,958
object was located if this

3473
01:52:43,958 --> 01:52:45,000
table is the working area.

3474
01:52:45,000 --> 01:52:46,291
So I can see it from our God's eye view,

3475
01:52:46,291 --> 01:52:48,375
like right here at the entrance, you

3476
01:52:48,375 --> 01:52:49,666
know, at the right altitude.

3477
01:52:49,666 --> 01:52:50,458
So it was at the spot.

3478
01:52:50,458 --> 01:52:51,833
So they know where your edge is.

3479
01:52:51,833 --> 01:52:53,041
Yes.

3480
01:52:53,041 --> 01:52:54,375
And it was stationary.

3481
01:52:54,375 --> 01:52:57,250
And I keep saying I need to do research

3482
01:52:57,250 --> 01:52:58,333
on this, but I don't think their radar

3483
01:52:58,333 --> 01:52:59,916
was working that day.

3484
01:52:59,916 --> 01:53:01,208
I think that's why they almost hit the

3485
01:53:01,208 --> 01:53:02,416
object there because...

3486
01:53:02,416 --> 01:53:02,916
The two ones who went zoom past them.

3487
01:53:03,791 --> 01:53:04,958
Yes. So they were going

3488
01:53:04,958 --> 01:53:06,250
out in a section like this.

3489
01:53:06,250 --> 01:53:07,000
Right. And when these objects

3490
01:53:07,000 --> 01:53:08,125
went right between...

3491
01:53:08,125 --> 01:53:08,875
It was stationary.

3492
01:53:08,875 --> 01:53:09,833
They went between it.

3493
01:53:09,833 --> 01:53:10,625
But that's how I describe

3494
01:53:10,625 --> 01:53:12,041
it, the relative motion.

3495
01:53:12,041 --> 01:53:13,958
So these times when you got close but you

3496
01:53:13,958 --> 01:53:15,708
couldn't see it, is it believable that

3497
01:53:15,708 --> 01:53:18,291
it's because they were so small or is it

3498
01:53:18,291 --> 01:53:19,666
plausible that they were really like they

3499
01:53:19,666 --> 01:53:20,875
could choose to be opaque if they want?

3500
01:53:20,875 --> 01:53:21,750
They could choose for you

3501
01:53:21,750 --> 01:53:22,791
not to see them if they wanted.

3502
01:53:22,791 --> 01:53:24,958
I don't think it's a size issue.

3503
01:53:24,958 --> 01:53:26,416
Okay.
Based off of the radar.

3504
01:53:26,416 --> 01:53:28,000
Then maybe they can just change the

3505
01:53:28,000 --> 01:53:29,416
appearance of their surface to look like

3506
01:53:29,416 --> 01:53:29,916
the sky or something?

3507
01:53:30,166 --> 01:53:32,125
I think there's the

3508
01:53:32,125 --> 01:53:33,500
possibility of the "cloaking".

3509
01:53:33,500 --> 01:53:35,250
It's doing something to its surface to

3510
01:53:35,250 --> 01:53:36,916
make it hard to see.

3511
01:53:36,916 --> 01:53:37,750
I mean, that's one.

3512
01:53:37,750 --> 01:53:38,916
The other one, of course, is that they

3513
01:53:38,916 --> 01:53:41,291
don't all correlate to physical objects.

3514
01:53:41,291 --> 01:53:42,791
And the IR energy that we're seeing on

3515
01:53:42,791 --> 01:53:45,041
our FLIR, for whatever reason, doesn't

3516
01:53:45,041 --> 01:53:46,125
correlate to something I would be able to

3517
01:53:46,125 --> 01:53:47,666
see with my eyes as a physical object.

3518
01:53:47,666 --> 01:53:49,375
So I have a physics background.

3519
01:53:49,375 --> 01:53:51,875
And one of the things physicists I know

3520
01:53:51,875 --> 01:53:53,416
speculate about is this idea that you

3521
01:53:53,416 --> 01:53:56,000
could send a beam to a

3522
01:53:56,000 --> 01:53:56,916
point that induces a plasma.

3523
01:53:57,458 --> 01:53:59,541
And then you could draw whatever thing

3524
01:53:59,541 --> 01:54:01,375
you want with a plasma beam.

3525
01:54:01,375 --> 01:54:03,333
Now, that wouldn't have been something we

3526
01:54:03,333 --> 01:54:05,250
could have done in 1940.

3527
01:54:05,250 --> 01:54:06,375
But maybe that's something we could have

3528
01:54:06,375 --> 01:54:08,500
done in the last 20 years.

3529
01:54:08,500 --> 01:54:10,000
Is that...

3530
01:54:10,000 --> 01:54:11,416
I mean, that might be a cheaper budget,

3531
01:54:11,416 --> 01:54:12,958
maybe, if there's some projector

3532
01:54:12,958 --> 01:54:13,708
somewhere sending this

3533
01:54:13,708 --> 01:54:15,208
beam and they can control...

3534
01:54:15,208 --> 01:54:16,750
Maybe they send two beams and where they

3535
01:54:16,750 --> 01:54:17,916
intersect produces a

3536
01:54:17,916 --> 01:54:18,666
phenomena or something.

3537
01:54:18,666 --> 01:54:21,291
But then you could just draw this thing

3538
01:54:21,291 --> 01:54:22,708
in space and make

3539
01:54:22,708 --> 01:54:23,416
whatever pattern you want.

3540
01:54:23,416 --> 01:54:24,916
It could accelerate and disappear, etc.

3541
01:54:25,666 --> 01:54:27,375
There's no physical object there, but

3542
01:54:27,375 --> 01:54:28,375
that's why it looks like it's...

3543
01:54:28,375 --> 01:54:31,375
Right. So it's like drawing a

3544
01:54:31,375 --> 01:54:32,541
hologram in space, basically.

3545
01:54:32,541 --> 01:54:34,625
So is that the sort of thing that could

3546
01:54:34,625 --> 01:54:36,000
have explained the kind of thing you see?

3547
01:54:36,000 --> 01:54:36,500
Could such...

3548
01:54:36,500 --> 01:54:38,500
I mean, it could reflect late radar, I

3549
01:54:38,500 --> 01:54:39,625
guess, if there's a plasma there.

3550
01:54:39,625 --> 01:54:41,000
It could show an infrared because it

3551
01:54:41,000 --> 01:54:42,500
would be a hot plasma.

3552
01:54:42,500 --> 01:54:44,208
And you could just turn it on and off.

3553
01:54:44,208 --> 01:54:44,750
Well, I guess you

3554
01:54:44,750 --> 01:54:46,000
couldn't turn it off that fast.

3555
01:54:46,000 --> 01:54:47,500
But you can't send a

3556
01:54:47,500 --> 01:54:48,833
cold beam to freeze it.

3557
01:54:48,833 --> 01:54:50,250
You could turn off the hot beam and then

3558
01:54:50,250 --> 01:54:51,375
it would slowly cool.

3559
01:54:51,375 --> 01:54:51,958
Well, here's...

3560
01:54:51,958 --> 01:54:52,916
So I've looked into this.

3561
01:54:53,791 --> 01:54:54,625
I've talked to some

3562
01:54:54,625 --> 01:54:56,833
people within the government.

3563
01:54:56,833 --> 01:54:57,708
And this was an area of

3564
01:54:57,708 --> 01:54:59,041
research that the government...

3565
01:54:59,041 --> 01:55:00,375
I've heard have pursued

3566
01:55:00,375 --> 01:55:01,208
and say, "Is this possible?"

3567
01:55:01,208 --> 01:55:03,083
So one thing I was interested to learn

3568
01:55:03,083 --> 01:55:04,458
was that plasma can

3569
01:55:04,458 --> 01:55:05,541
actually return radar...

3570
01:55:05,541 --> 01:55:07,208
Or make radar returns.

3571
01:55:07,208 --> 01:55:07,791
Yeah.

3572
01:55:07,791 --> 01:55:09,333
So you could place this

3573
01:55:09,333 --> 01:55:10,000
out there and actually...

3574
01:55:10,000 --> 01:55:11,416
There's free electrons in it, basically,

3575
01:55:11,416 --> 01:55:13,500
that would reflect the radar.

3576
01:55:13,500 --> 01:55:14,333
I didn't know that, but I

3577
01:55:14,333 --> 01:55:16,666
just knew it would reflect it.

3578
01:55:16,666 --> 01:55:18,375
But either way, so...

3579
01:55:18,375 --> 01:55:19,625
So, yeah, it seems

3580
01:55:19,625 --> 01:55:20,125
feasible that you could do that.

3581
01:55:20,416 --> 01:55:22,500
I've looked into what turns me off for

3582
01:55:22,500 --> 01:55:24,416
that being a real thing are two things.

3583
01:55:24,416 --> 01:55:26,500
One, energy requirements to do so.

3584
01:55:26,500 --> 01:55:28,500
And two, the fidelity of

3585
01:55:28,500 --> 01:55:31,208
the projection, potentially.

3586
01:55:31,208 --> 01:55:32,916
So the fact that we saw these with the

3587
01:55:32,916 --> 01:55:33,833
own eyeballs and the

3588
01:55:33,833 --> 01:55:34,708
fidelity I was described,

3589
01:55:34,708 --> 01:55:36,166
for me, negates that possibility.

3590
01:55:36,166 --> 01:55:37,375
So is this about like an

3591
01:55:37,375 --> 01:55:38,750
angular accuracy of the beam?

3592
01:55:38,750 --> 01:55:39,416
I mean, couldn't they have

3593
01:55:39,416 --> 01:55:40,500
just a really narrow beam?

3594
01:55:40,500 --> 01:55:42,375
Then it would just be a very precise spot

3595
01:55:42,375 --> 01:55:43,541
where the plasma was happening?

3596
01:55:43,541 --> 01:55:44,500
Or are you thinking like the

3597
01:55:44,500 --> 01:55:45,958
beam would have to spread out?

3598
01:55:45,958 --> 01:55:47,416
I think there would need to be multiple

3599
01:55:47,416 --> 01:55:47,916
beams that are high precision

3600
01:55:48,458 --> 01:55:51,500
in order to provide the square and the

3601
01:55:51,500 --> 01:55:52,541
circular shape with the

3602
01:55:52,541 --> 01:55:54,166
fidelity that existed.

3603
01:55:54,166 --> 01:55:57,041
Okay, so it's the spatial precision then.

3604
01:55:57,041 --> 01:55:58,541
So I could suggest...

3605
01:55:58,541 --> 01:55:59,333
But you didn't see a

3606
01:55:59,333 --> 01:56:00,083
square in a circle, right?

3607
01:56:00,083 --> 01:56:02,375
You just saw a spot, right?

3608
01:56:02,375 --> 01:56:04,375
Yes, but I didn't see it, but everyone in

3609
01:56:04,375 --> 01:56:06,000
the squadron were seeing the same item.

3610
01:56:06,000 --> 01:56:07,041
So although I was one...

3611
01:56:07,041 --> 01:56:08,250
So lots of people saw the square in the

3612
01:56:08,250 --> 01:56:09,291
circle, not just these two guys

3613
01:56:09,291 --> 01:56:09,750
who had the thing you

3614
01:56:09,750 --> 01:56:10,750
wanted to be training, right?

3615
01:56:10,750 --> 01:56:12,833
So for me, that's the fact.

3616
01:56:12,833 --> 01:56:14,000
And that's still being seen today.

3617
01:56:14,000 --> 01:56:15,333
I've talked tens of piles of...

3618
01:56:15,333 --> 01:56:16,458
The cube in the sphere, sorry.

3619
01:56:16,458 --> 01:56:16,958
The cube in the sphere?

3620
01:56:17,708 --> 01:56:19,125
The cube in the sphere, yes.

3621
01:56:19,125 --> 01:56:21,958
So when I think about just

3622
01:56:21,958 --> 01:56:23,875
the radar and just the AT FLIR,

3623
01:56:23,875 --> 01:56:25,833
the technology that you described, use

3624
01:56:25,833 --> 01:56:27,583
plasma, I think is

3625
01:56:27,583 --> 01:56:29,375
conceivable potentially.

3626
01:56:29,375 --> 01:56:31,708
But when we add the visual sighting to

3627
01:56:31,708 --> 01:56:33,125
that, that's where there's a disconnect.

3628
01:56:33,125 --> 01:56:34,000
So this is about just

3629
01:56:34,000 --> 01:56:35,041
the spatial resolution.

3630
01:56:35,041 --> 01:56:36,583
How fine a beam could you send?

3631
01:56:36,583 --> 01:56:38,166
You'd have to do a raster thing,

3632
01:56:38,166 --> 01:56:39,500
basically, you know, raster,

3633
01:56:39,500 --> 01:56:40,208
just like you do with a

3634
01:56:40,208 --> 01:56:40,666
TV screen or something.

3635
01:56:40,666 --> 01:56:41,541
These objects were 5

3636
01:56:41,541 --> 01:56:43,333
to 15 feet in diameter.

3637
01:56:44,916 --> 01:56:47,833
And so, yeah, it would have to raster.

3638
01:56:47,833 --> 01:56:48,583
It would have to be

3639
01:56:48,583 --> 01:56:50,125
extremely high precision.

3640
01:56:50,125 --> 01:56:52,166
So it's those parameters that seem unreal

3641
01:56:52,166 --> 01:56:53,500
to the people you've talked to.

3642
01:56:53,500 --> 01:56:56,500
You could make a fuzzy blob move around,

3643
01:56:56,500 --> 01:56:58,125
but you couldn't make something with that

3644
01:56:58,125 --> 01:56:59,291
precision of a shape,

3645
01:56:59,291 --> 01:57:00,250
of a cube inside a

3646
01:57:00,250 --> 01:57:02,625
sphere, a transparent sphere.

3647
01:57:02,625 --> 01:57:04,541
I don't know how to make a transparent

3648
01:57:04,541 --> 01:57:05,250
sphere with a plasma.

3649
01:57:05,250 --> 01:57:06,250
That sounds tricky to me.

3650
01:57:06,250 --> 01:57:07,666
I don't either.

3651
01:57:07,666 --> 01:57:08,291
How do you make something that

3652
01:57:08,291 --> 01:57:10,416
looks like glass with plasma?

3653
01:57:10,416 --> 01:57:11,166
And that's a tricky one

3654
01:57:11,166 --> 01:57:11,916
too, because the pilot witness,

3655
01:57:12,583 --> 01:57:15,375
he specifically stated that it was clear.

3656
01:57:15,375 --> 01:57:17,708
I added translucent or translucent

3657
01:57:17,708 --> 01:57:19,000
because I have to see the thing.

3658
01:57:19,000 --> 01:57:19,750
Exactly.

3659
01:57:19,750 --> 01:57:20,750
Right.

3660
01:57:20,750 --> 01:57:22,291
You're seeing the clear sphere, so it

3661
01:57:22,291 --> 01:57:24,500
can't be perfectly clear.

3662
01:57:24,500 --> 01:57:25,541
Exactly.

3663
01:57:25,541 --> 01:57:27,416
So yeah, you know, these are the details

3664
01:57:27,416 --> 01:57:28,916
that then start making that

3665
01:57:28,916 --> 01:57:30,250
theory more murky for me.

3666
01:57:30,250 --> 01:57:31,708
And then when you add on top

3667
01:57:31,708 --> 01:57:33,708
of the why question, right?

3668
01:57:33,708 --> 01:57:34,583
Right.
Why would we be doing

3669
01:57:34,583 --> 01:57:35,583
this for eight years?

3670
01:57:35,583 --> 01:57:37,041
But of course, this also won't explain

3671
01:57:37,041 --> 01:57:38,916
stuff from say before 1990 or something.

3672
01:57:39,125 --> 01:57:40,500
None of those, they could have, they

3673
01:57:40,500 --> 01:57:42,250
wouldn't have had the plasma raster

3674
01:57:42,250 --> 01:57:42,583
technology.

3675
01:57:42,583 --> 01:57:43,875
This is just to be clear.

3676
01:57:43,875 --> 01:57:45,250
We're just talking about, at least for me

3677
01:57:45,250 --> 01:57:46,375
right now, the east coast

3678
01:57:46,375 --> 01:57:47,000
experiences essentially.

3679
01:57:47,000 --> 01:57:47,666
Right.

3680
01:57:47,666 --> 01:57:50,208
That wouldn't work there.

3681
01:57:50,208 --> 01:57:51,166
And so that, I mean, a lot of

3682
01:57:51,166 --> 01:57:52,541
us have to look at you and go,

3683
01:57:52,541 --> 01:57:53,416
what's the chance he's in

3684
01:57:53,416 --> 01:57:55,000
on this and lying, right?

3685
01:57:55,000 --> 01:57:56,916
It must feel weird to like, to know

3686
01:57:56,916 --> 01:57:57,958
people are looking at you going,

3687
01:57:57,958 --> 01:57:59,500
what's the chance he's lying?

3688
01:57:59,500 --> 01:58:01,291
Yeah, I feel like most

3689
01:58:01,291 --> 01:58:02,125
people, I don't know,

3690
01:58:02,125 --> 01:58:02,916
I just assume people

3691
01:58:02,916 --> 01:58:03,750
don't think I'm lying.

3692
01:58:03,750 --> 01:58:04,083
I don't know.

3693
01:58:04,083 --> 01:58:05,833
I just, I don't, because I'm not,

3694
01:58:05,833 --> 01:58:06,458
but if we don't think

3695
01:58:06,458 --> 01:58:07,458
you're lying, then we got to,

3696
01:58:07,458 --> 01:58:07,958
I'm just talking about this data.

3697
01:58:08,000 --> 01:58:08,458
We have to draw these

3698
01:58:08,458 --> 01:58:09,291
other conclusions, right?

3699
01:58:09,291 --> 01:58:10,625
Yeah.
We have to, we have these really big

3700
01:58:10,625 --> 01:58:11,541
dramatic conclusions.

3701
01:58:11,541 --> 01:58:13,458
Like either you're lying or these, like

3702
01:58:13,458 --> 01:58:14,458
our worldview has to change.

3703
01:58:14,458 --> 01:58:15,416
Like, so which do we want to do?

3704
01:58:15,416 --> 01:58:17,666
I'm lying and also I'm being supported.

3705
01:58:17,666 --> 01:58:18,791
By huge infrastructure,

3706
01:58:18,791 --> 01:58:19,583
supporting infrastructure.

3707
01:58:19,583 --> 01:58:20,000
Yes.

3708
01:58:20,000 --> 01:58:22,541
Because my story, you know, I made my

3709
01:58:22,541 --> 01:58:23,541
statements and I didn't expect

3710
01:58:23,541 --> 01:58:25,625
this to happen, but then people FOIA

3711
01:58:25,625 --> 01:58:26,500
documents and things came out

3712
01:58:26,500 --> 01:58:28,416
and you know, my story was validated.

3713
01:58:28,416 --> 01:58:29,791
So you'd have to assume that there was a

3714
01:58:29,791 --> 01:58:32,916
wider apparatus than just me.

3715
01:58:32,916 --> 01:58:34,375
But that would be the story here, right?

3716
01:58:34,375 --> 01:58:36,083
There's this, I mean, how much would they

3717
01:58:36,083 --> 01:58:36,916
be willing to spend basically?

3718
01:58:37,291 --> 01:58:38,208
Could they make a whole

3719
01:58:38,208 --> 01:58:40,750
carrier group that does this?

3720
01:58:40,750 --> 01:58:42,333
We're still talking about us, right?

3721
01:58:42,333 --> 01:58:44,291
Would another nation do this to us?

3722
01:58:44,291 --> 01:58:46,625
Could we slip this carrier group into the

3723
01:58:46,625 --> 01:58:48,625
Soviet Baltic Sea or something?

3724
01:58:48,625 --> 01:58:50,583
Yeah.
Like trick them or something?

3725
01:58:50,583 --> 01:58:52,500
Yeah.
Why are we checking our own pilots for

3726
01:58:52,500 --> 01:58:53,333
almost a decade now?

3727
01:58:53,333 --> 01:58:54,166
And trying to trick the

3728
01:58:54,166 --> 01:58:55,375
Soviet pilots and whatever.

3729
01:58:55,375 --> 01:58:56,208
I mean, again, there is

3730
01:58:56,208 --> 01:58:57,500
this plausible thing like,

3731
01:58:57,500 --> 01:58:58,875
just make the other side uncertain if

3732
01:58:58,875 --> 01:59:00,333
there's a third party, right?

3733
01:59:00,333 --> 01:59:01,833
That's worth a fair bit.

3734
01:59:01,833 --> 01:59:04,500
But could you really pull that off inside

3735
01:59:04,500 --> 01:59:05,500
their organizations?

3736
01:59:05,500 --> 01:59:06,000
Mm-hmm.

3737
01:59:06,375 --> 01:59:07,500
Like could you make

3738
01:59:07,500 --> 01:59:09,458
Soviet pilots see this stuff?

3739
01:59:09,458 --> 01:59:10,833
I would assume we'd have to be working

3740
01:59:10,833 --> 01:59:11,458
towards the same goal

3741
01:59:11,458 --> 01:59:13,916
to make that happen.

3742
01:59:13,916 --> 01:59:17,375
I mean, so this is why

3743
01:59:17,375 --> 01:59:19,083
this is a hard subject, right?

3744
01:59:19,083 --> 01:59:20,666
So I feel this emotional

3745
01:59:20,666 --> 01:59:22,208
sense of just run away from this.

3746
01:59:22,208 --> 01:59:24,000
Like there's not much to win here, right?

3747
01:59:24,000 --> 01:59:25,000
You're not going to look good.

3748
01:59:25,000 --> 01:59:26,875
Nobody's going to thank you for this.

3749
01:59:26,875 --> 01:59:28,083
Like just go do something else.

3750
01:59:28,083 --> 01:59:29,708
And I've got to bet a lot of other people

3751
01:59:29,708 --> 01:59:31,083
feel that about this, right?

3752
01:59:31,083 --> 01:59:32,166
Just run away.

3753
01:59:32,166 --> 01:59:33,833
Find an excuse and run away.

3754
01:59:34,500 --> 01:59:36,416
You know, sure, the world needs to know,

3755
01:59:36,416 --> 01:59:37,250
but you don't have to be

3756
01:59:37,250 --> 01:59:39,041
the one to tell the world.

3757
01:59:39,041 --> 01:59:39,750
Let them figure it out

3758
01:59:39,750 --> 01:59:40,541
some other way, right?

3759
01:59:40,541 --> 01:59:41,000
Yeah.

3760
01:59:41,000 --> 01:59:43,791
I mean, do you feel it?

3761
01:59:43,791 --> 01:59:45,500
I mean, so a bunch of your other pilots,

3762
01:59:45,500 --> 01:59:47,166
they didn't go public, right?

3763
01:59:47,166 --> 01:59:48,125
They could have. You did.

3764
01:59:48,125 --> 01:59:49,291
Do you feel like you're different from

3765
01:59:49,291 --> 01:59:50,916
them because like you felt more of an

3766
01:59:50,916 --> 01:59:53,416
obligation to do it or?

3767
01:59:53,416 --> 01:59:54,666
I think there's a few

3768
01:59:54,666 --> 01:59:55,625
considerations there.

3769
01:59:55,625 --> 01:59:59,541
One was that, well, one, yeah, I did.

3770
01:59:59,541 --> 02:00:01,458
I did feel an obligation to do it when I

3771
02:00:01,458 --> 02:00:01,958
first started speaking out

3772
02:00:02,375 --> 02:00:04,166
because I knew like to your point, I was

3773
02:00:04,166 --> 02:00:05,708
going to be first more or less.

3774
02:00:05,708 --> 02:00:08,166
And the risk was going to be on me.

3775
02:00:08,166 --> 02:00:09,500
But, you know, as I said earlier, the

3776
02:00:09,500 --> 02:00:10,500
Navy trained me to be

3777
02:00:10,500 --> 02:00:11,666
aviation safety officer.

3778
02:00:11,666 --> 02:00:13,583
And in 2017, I saw the new

3779
02:00:13,583 --> 02:00:14,500
all these other officers.

3780
02:00:14,500 --> 02:00:15,708
They aren't doing this.

3781
02:00:15,708 --> 02:00:16,583
I know.

3782
02:00:16,583 --> 02:00:18,666
But I was also, you know, you just take

3783
02:00:18,666 --> 02:00:20,166
this mission more seriously than they do.

3784
02:00:20,166 --> 02:00:21,500
Well, you know, the guys that saw the

3785
02:00:21,500 --> 02:00:23,416
gimbal video and stuff, I mean, yeah,

3786
02:00:23,416 --> 02:00:24,500
these are my best buddies.

3787
02:00:24,500 --> 02:00:25,375
I mean, right.

3788
02:00:25,375 --> 02:00:26,791
A guy that we hear in

3789
02:00:26,791 --> 02:00:27,958
there is in my wedding party.

3790
02:00:27,958 --> 02:00:28,416
We've known each

3791
02:00:28,416 --> 02:00:28,916
other for about a decade.

3792
02:00:29,541 --> 02:00:32,958
So, you know, for me, it was insulting.

3793
02:00:32,958 --> 02:00:35,833
And it just pissed me off that this was

3794
02:00:35,833 --> 02:00:37,041
an issue now that was in the

3795
02:00:37,041 --> 02:00:38,250
front of the New York Times.

3796
02:00:38,250 --> 02:00:40,333
And yet I then just called my friends on

3797
02:00:40,333 --> 02:00:41,333
these coasts who said, you know, of

3798
02:00:41,333 --> 02:00:43,000
course, yeah, we're flying by these like

3799
02:00:43,000 --> 02:00:43,875
no one's doing anything.

3800
02:00:43,875 --> 02:00:45,458
We're almost hitting these things.

3801
02:00:45,458 --> 02:00:47,833
And I know the lessons in the Navy that

3802
02:00:47,833 --> 02:00:49,583
we fix things after someone dies and we

3803
02:00:49,583 --> 02:00:51,125
write our books in blood.

3804
02:00:51,125 --> 02:00:52,458
And this was an opportunity.

3805
02:00:52,458 --> 02:00:55,250
I felt that something could be done

3806
02:00:55,250 --> 02:00:55,916
before we had a catastrophic issue.

3807
02:00:56,458 --> 02:00:58,583
And it wasn't necessarily the, yeah,

3808
02:00:58,583 --> 02:00:59,500
Jet's going to hit it

3809
02:00:59,500 --> 02:01:00,375
because that could happen.

3810
02:01:00,375 --> 02:01:01,041
But that's just a

3811
02:01:01,041 --> 02:01:02,541
risk we take as aviators.

3812
02:01:02,541 --> 02:01:05,291
It was a strategic and tactical risk that

3813
02:01:05,291 --> 02:01:07,458
we were potentially exposing ourselves to

3814
02:01:07,458 --> 02:01:08,916
through an adversary if they were the

3815
02:01:08,916 --> 02:01:11,083
ones taking advantage of our inability to

3816
02:01:11,083 --> 02:01:12,750
look at something strange.

3817
02:01:12,750 --> 02:01:16,250
So I cited a study of the following in my

3818
02:01:16,250 --> 02:01:18,125
first book, Age of M.

3819
02:01:18,125 --> 02:01:19,958
It's a study of employees

3820
02:01:19,958 --> 02:01:20,916
and what makes them happy.

3821
02:01:21,916 --> 02:01:24,666
And one set of employees has a concept

3822
02:01:24,666 --> 02:01:26,958
that their job is like a certain

3823
02:01:26,958 --> 02:01:27,708
specification of a thing

3824
02:01:27,708 --> 02:01:28,833
to be done in the world.

3825
02:01:28,833 --> 02:01:30,291
And other people have the concept of

3826
02:01:30,291 --> 02:01:32,708
their job as pleasing their boss.

3827
02:01:32,708 --> 02:01:34,458
The second group of people tends to be

3828
02:01:34,458 --> 02:01:38,500
happier in their jobs because they do

3829
02:01:38,500 --> 02:01:40,125
whatever it takes to please their boss

3830
02:01:40,125 --> 02:01:42,166
and then they keep their job and they

3831
02:01:42,166 --> 02:01:43,041
don't have as much attention.

3832
02:01:43,041 --> 02:01:44,500
The first group of people with the

3833
02:01:44,500 --> 02:01:46,833
concept they have of their job is doing a

3834
02:01:46,833 --> 02:01:48,916
certain thing like making the sky safe.

3835
02:01:49,083 --> 02:01:50,250
Well, they have a problem because often

3836
02:01:50,250 --> 02:01:53,000
their boss disagrees with them about how

3837
02:01:53,000 --> 02:01:54,458
to implement that job or even whether

3838
02:01:54,458 --> 02:01:55,333
that job should be done.

3839
02:01:55,333 --> 02:01:57,083
Right. So you sound like more of that

3840
02:01:57,083 --> 02:01:58,708
first kind of person.

3841
02:01:58,708 --> 02:02:00,791
You took the safety course and you think

3842
02:02:00,791 --> 02:02:03,166
of my job is to keep the sky safe as

3843
02:02:03,166 --> 02:02:05,416
opposed to my job is to please my boss.

3844
02:02:05,416 --> 02:02:06,500
Because otherwise you go to your boss and

3845
02:02:06,500 --> 02:02:07,958
say, what do you want to hear?

3846
02:02:07,958 --> 02:02:08,416
Certainly wasn't

3847
02:02:08,416 --> 02:02:09,250
pleased my boss with this.

3848
02:02:09,250 --> 02:02:11,166
That's for sure.

3849
02:02:11,166 --> 02:02:12,458
Right. But that tends

3850
02:02:12,458 --> 02:02:13,375
to make people unhappy.

3851
02:02:13,375 --> 02:02:16,458
Right. But in some sense, the world world

3852
02:02:16,458 --> 02:02:16,958
runs on those first people.

3853
02:02:17,500 --> 02:02:18,750
Right. In some sense, like a bunch of

3854
02:02:18,750 --> 02:02:20,666
things don't go wrong because some people

3855
02:02:20,666 --> 02:02:22,541
take their job so seriously that they're

3856
02:02:22,541 --> 02:02:24,916
willing to cause conflict with their boss

3857
02:02:24,916 --> 02:02:26,291
in order to do their job

3858
02:02:26,291 --> 02:02:29,625
as they see the job defined.

3859
02:02:29,625 --> 02:02:30,500
And that I mean, that that

3860
02:02:30,500 --> 02:02:31,625
was what the Navy taught me.

3861
02:02:31,625 --> 02:02:34,000
And that's what they instilled in me.

3862
02:02:34,000 --> 02:02:34,958
And do your job even if

3863
02:02:34,958 --> 02:02:35,958
your boss doesn't like it.

3864
02:02:35,958 --> 02:02:38,625
Well, no, it's that, you know, we have a

3865
02:02:38,625 --> 02:02:40,250
higher calling in a sense in that the

3866
02:02:40,250 --> 02:02:41,666
people that you're out there serving with

3867
02:02:41,666 --> 02:02:42,166
are why you're there.

3868
02:02:43,000 --> 02:02:45,291
And so for me, when I saw the New York

3869
02:02:45,291 --> 02:02:46,750
Times article, when I reached out my

3870
02:02:46,750 --> 02:02:47,916
friends and realized it was still

3871
02:02:47,916 --> 02:02:49,458
happening, it was, man, we're setting

3872
02:02:49,458 --> 02:02:50,416
ourselves up for failure.

3873
02:02:50,416 --> 02:02:51,750
And this was just another opportunity.

3874
02:02:51,750 --> 02:02:53,875
I think this is a thing most people don't

3875
02:02:53,875 --> 02:02:55,125
understand about the military, which is

3876
02:02:55,125 --> 02:02:57,541
maybe why I'm pushing you to say it,

3877
02:02:57,541 --> 02:02:58,666
which is many people have

3878
02:02:58,666 --> 02:02:59,750
a sense in the military.

3879
02:02:59,750 --> 02:03:01,083
If there's any place in the world where

3880
02:03:01,083 --> 02:03:02,208
you do what your boss

3881
02:03:02,208 --> 02:03:03,625
says, it's in the military.

3882
02:03:03,625 --> 02:03:05,875
Right. Command, respect for command.

3883
02:03:05,875 --> 02:03:09,000
Just do what you're told is seen to be a

3884
02:03:09,000 --> 02:03:09,916
central part of the military. Right.

3885
02:03:11,000 --> 02:03:13,541
And so and maybe that's true for many

3886
02:03:13,541 --> 02:03:14,583
militaries in the world, but there are

3887
02:03:14,583 --> 02:03:16,125
some militaries, maybe ours, where

3888
02:03:16,125 --> 02:03:17,833
there's a big part of the people who say,

3889
02:03:17,833 --> 02:03:19,708
no, my job isn't just

3890
02:03:19,708 --> 02:03:21,500
to do what my boss says.

3891
02:03:21,500 --> 02:03:22,791
My job is to do this

3892
02:03:22,791 --> 02:03:25,000
particular thing I was taught to do.

3893
02:03:25,000 --> 02:03:27,500
And if my boss is giving you resistance

3894
02:03:27,500 --> 02:03:28,833
on that, I'm going to give some

3895
02:03:28,833 --> 02:03:30,708
resistance back because my job isn't

3896
02:03:30,708 --> 02:03:32,291
defined by what my boss tells me to do.

3897
02:03:32,291 --> 02:03:33,875
My job is defined by this other thing.

3898
02:03:34,250 --> 02:03:36,833
And that's an amazing fact about the

3899
02:03:36,833 --> 02:03:38,500
military, because you might think in any

3900
02:03:38,500 --> 02:03:40,083
job, it's a bit of a problem to resist

3901
02:03:40,083 --> 02:03:41,375
your boss because he's just got a lot

3902
02:03:41,375 --> 02:03:42,708
more lovers than you.

3903
02:03:42,708 --> 02:03:45,041
And so is it really true that in the U.S.

3904
02:03:45,041 --> 02:03:45,625
military, at least, or

3905
02:03:45,625 --> 02:03:46,500
what military is in the world?

3906
02:03:46,500 --> 02:03:48,208
Is it true such that they have this

3907
02:03:48,208 --> 02:03:50,750
concept of their job, which is, hey, I

3908
02:03:50,750 --> 02:03:52,125
was taught how to do this thing.

3909
02:03:52,125 --> 02:03:52,875
This is the thing I'm

3910
02:03:52,875 --> 02:03:53,833
supposed to be trying to do.

3911
02:03:53,833 --> 02:03:55,208
And this is the thing I'm going to do,

3912
02:03:55,208 --> 02:03:55,916
even if my boss pushes back.

3913
02:03:56,583 --> 02:04:00,000
I think for fighter pilots, we have a

3914
02:04:00,000 --> 02:04:03,208
higher calling to some degree where our

3915
02:04:03,208 --> 02:04:05,458
safety of our mission and of the assets

3916
02:04:05,458 --> 02:04:09,208
and of each other are the highest

3917
02:04:09,208 --> 02:04:10,500
consideration we have.

3918
02:04:10,500 --> 02:04:13,375
And as a lieutenant in the Navy, if my

3919
02:04:13,375 --> 02:04:16,791
commanding officer, an O5 or an O6, is

3920
02:04:16,791 --> 02:04:18,708
demonstrating unsafe practices in that

3921
02:04:18,708 --> 02:04:21,000
fighter jet, I have an obligation to

3922
02:04:21,000 --> 02:04:22,333
remedy that situation, even

3923
02:04:22,333 --> 02:04:22,916
if he's my commanding officer.

3924
02:04:23,791 --> 02:04:26,416
And we're taught as aviators that the

3925
02:04:26,416 --> 02:04:28,750
responsibility and the decision making

3926
02:04:28,750 --> 02:04:31,333
authority of the pilot in that jet is at

3927
02:04:31,333 --> 02:04:33,083
the end of the day absolute.

3928
02:04:33,083 --> 02:04:36,625
And we have the authority to go against

3929
02:04:36,625 --> 02:04:38,791
our regulations, our rules to ensure the

3930
02:04:38,791 --> 02:04:40,333
safety of that aircraft.

3931
02:04:40,333 --> 02:04:42,708
In a sense, this was the same principle.

3932
02:04:42,708 --> 02:04:44,625
So I'm wondering if that's an unusual

3933
02:04:44,625 --> 02:04:45,500
feature of pilots

3934
02:04:45,500 --> 02:04:46,000
because they're so high status.

3935
02:04:46,666 --> 02:04:49,708
Is this really true of an ordinary group

3936
02:04:49,708 --> 02:04:52,041
of soldiers on a front line that they

3937
02:04:52,041 --> 02:04:54,833
have that same sense of we do what is

3938
02:04:54,833 --> 02:04:58,375
good for our troop, even if it's and the

3939
02:04:58,375 --> 02:05:00,333
boss says otherwise?

3940
02:05:00,333 --> 02:05:03,041
Because pilots are so respected that

3941
02:05:03,041 --> 02:05:03,750
successful pilots go on

3942
02:05:03,750 --> 02:05:04,916
to become admirals, right?

3943
02:05:05,916 --> 02:05:08,125
And successful pilots go on to become

3944
02:05:08,125 --> 02:05:12,666
senators and pilots are at the top of our

3945
02:05:12,666 --> 02:05:15,000
military respect in terms of outside

3946
02:05:15,000 --> 02:05:17,250
sense of like those are the top people.

3947
02:05:17,250 --> 02:05:18,833
That's why we have that agency

3948
02:05:18,833 --> 02:05:20,083
to perhaps push a little bit.

3949
02:05:20,083 --> 02:05:23,166
So maybe that you're an exception to

3950
02:05:23,166 --> 02:05:24,500
other parts of the military where it's

3951
02:05:24,500 --> 02:05:25,666
more do what your boss says.

3952
02:05:25,666 --> 02:05:28,000
I agree. Yes. I'm certainly stating that

3953
02:05:28,000 --> 02:05:29,541
that cohort is the

3954
02:05:29,541 --> 02:05:30,250
exception in that area.

3955
02:05:31,875 --> 02:05:34,250
Yeah. I mean, yeah, whether I was

3956
02:05:34,250 --> 02:05:36,208
rebelling perhaps against that authority

3957
02:05:36,208 --> 02:05:37,958
or not, I felt an obligation

3958
02:05:37,958 --> 02:05:39,541
to do what I thought was right.

3959
02:05:39,541 --> 02:05:41,000
But this is also a reason why we should

3960
02:05:41,000 --> 02:05:42,875
pay more attention to pilot testimony

3961
02:05:42,875 --> 02:05:44,416
than anybody else's testimony in some

3962
02:05:44,416 --> 02:05:46,833
sense, because you do have this norm of

3963
02:05:46,833 --> 02:05:49,375
this is our job and we're going to do it.

3964
02:05:49,375 --> 02:05:51,208
And so we can more trust you. If you tell

3965
02:05:51,208 --> 02:05:54,625
us this is in the way of your job, then

3966
02:05:54,625 --> 02:05:55,708
there's really a thing there.

3967
02:05:55,708 --> 02:05:57,125
I'm not going to suggest why people

3968
02:05:57,125 --> 02:05:57,916
should or shouldn't trust pilots.

3969
02:05:58,666 --> 02:06:01,958
I think that I will. Okay, you guys. I

3970
02:06:01,958 --> 02:06:05,416
feel kind of productive myself, but.

3971
02:06:05,416 --> 02:06:06,708
Because I'm not a pilot. I don't know any

3972
02:06:06,708 --> 02:06:09,000
pilot. I have no stake in pilot world. I

3973
02:06:09,000 --> 02:06:11,083
have no connection to pilots whatsoever

3974
02:06:11,083 --> 02:06:12,000
than talking to you today.

3975
02:06:12,000 --> 02:06:13,625
This is my only connection

3976
02:06:13,625 --> 02:06:15,750
to pilots as far as I know.

3977
02:06:16,500 --> 02:06:22,083
Well, you know, regard. I've been looking

3978
02:06:22,083 --> 02:06:25,041
to harness that reputation to expand the

3979
02:06:25,041 --> 02:06:26,500
conversation through this podcast and

3980
02:06:26,500 --> 02:06:29,791
others to provide a platform for pilots

3981
02:06:29,791 --> 02:06:31,750
that haven't felt comfortable about this

3982
02:06:31,750 --> 02:06:34,666
to get on this in the sea on the stage

3983
02:06:34,666 --> 02:06:36,500
and be a voice for this.

3984
02:06:36,500 --> 02:06:38,458
Just like in the past with the ball

3985
02:06:38,458 --> 02:06:39,958
lightning. Oh, we didn't want to talk

3986
02:06:39,958 --> 02:06:42,000
about that. They want to talk about that

3987
02:06:42,000 --> 02:06:43,916
because of how it was received. Right.

3988
02:06:44,375 --> 02:06:46,166
Right. And so I want to provide them a

3989
02:06:46,166 --> 02:06:47,500
platform where they can communicate

3990
02:06:47,500 --> 02:06:48,791
clearly and openly about their

3991
02:06:48,791 --> 02:06:50,541
experiences so we can move the

3992
02:06:50,541 --> 02:06:51,708
conversation forward in

3993
02:06:51,708 --> 02:06:54,208
a way we haven't before.

3994
02:06:54,208 --> 02:06:57,041
And I think I mean, a key status contest

3995
02:06:57,041 --> 02:06:59,625
is going on here between the status of a

3996
02:06:59,625 --> 02:07:00,458
pilot, which is pretty

3997
02:07:00,458 --> 02:07:01,291
high in the military.

3998
02:07:01,291 --> 02:07:03,750
I'm one of the highest and the status of,

3999
02:07:03,750 --> 02:07:06,000
say, academic physicists who say, yeah,

4000
02:07:06,000 --> 02:07:08,958
but balloons and and birds, because

4001
02:07:08,958 --> 02:07:10,166
here's the vector

4002
02:07:10,166 --> 02:07:10,916
calculation I give you. Right.

4003
02:07:11,416 --> 02:07:13,125
Because they're also pretty high status

4004
02:07:13,125 --> 02:07:15,666
in our world. And that's sort of a status

4005
02:07:15,666 --> 02:07:17,500
fight that's happening here. Right.

4006
02:07:17,500 --> 02:07:20,333
And so, you know, the essence of that is

4007
02:07:20,333 --> 02:07:23,333
they have to argue that you guys would

4008
02:07:23,333 --> 02:07:26,833
mistake a balloon or a bird for the stuff

4009
02:07:26,833 --> 02:07:27,708
you're seeing that that's

4010
02:07:27,708 --> 02:07:28,916
a plausible theory of you.

4011
02:07:29,833 --> 02:07:33,000
Right. Consistently over years. Right.

4012
02:07:33,000 --> 02:07:35,416
Because that's the the only other option

4013
02:07:35,416 --> 02:07:37,208
is to say this thing they've been dissing

4014
02:07:37,208 --> 02:07:40,041
for decades. They stake their whole

4015
02:07:40,041 --> 02:07:40,625
reputation of their

4016
02:07:40,625 --> 02:07:41,833
discipline on is wrong.

4017
02:07:41,833 --> 02:07:44,333
They made a wrong bet. They said, that's

4018
02:07:44,333 --> 02:07:47,041
so stupid that we can just ridicule it

4019
02:07:47,041 --> 02:07:49,708
and sort of have fun with that. And they

4020
02:07:49,708 --> 02:07:51,166
they decided to ridicule a thing that

4021
02:07:51,166 --> 02:07:52,958
turned out to be real.

4022
02:07:54,625 --> 02:07:55,875
That's going to hurt them. Right. That's

4023
02:07:55,875 --> 02:07:57,541
going to hurt their status in the world.

4024
02:07:57,541 --> 02:07:59,208
Like all these physicists who are so

4025
02:07:59,208 --> 02:08:00,916
arrogant about this, if the world comes

4026
02:08:00,916 --> 02:08:03,416
to believe that this was real, they're

4027
02:08:03,416 --> 02:08:05,375
going to be knocked down a peg.

4028
02:08:05,375 --> 02:08:07,458
Right. But they'll also be exposed to

4029
02:08:07,458 --> 02:08:10,000
incredible opportunity.

4030
02:08:10,000 --> 02:08:11,916
I would maybe not them personally, the

4031
02:08:11,916 --> 02:08:13,416
career itself. Well, there's this all

4032
02:08:13,416 --> 02:08:14,708
this physics to learn.

4033
02:08:14,708 --> 02:08:17,416
But in a party who's not going to try not

4034
02:08:17,416 --> 02:08:18,541
to show you. Well,

4035
02:08:18,541 --> 02:08:19,041
physics, physics aside.

4036
02:08:19,458 --> 02:08:22,041
But I mean, they're just if we have

4037
02:08:22,041 --> 02:08:24,291
identified an unexplored area, I mean,

4038
02:08:24,291 --> 02:08:26,375
it's I think a golden opportunity for us

4039
02:08:26,375 --> 02:08:29,333
to redevelop our ideas and our

4040
02:08:29,333 --> 02:08:30,958
considerations around what we can learn

4041
02:08:30,958 --> 02:08:32,666
and what might be relatively low hanging

4042
02:08:32,666 --> 02:08:33,583
fruit if we actually

4043
02:08:33,583 --> 02:08:34,916
apply ourselves as scale.

4044
02:08:36,000 --> 02:08:38,708
So I used to be in physics and computer

4045
02:08:38,708 --> 02:08:40,166
science and then I've been in social

4046
02:08:40,166 --> 02:08:42,041
science, political science and economics.

4047
02:08:42,041 --> 02:08:45,958
And a basic issue in academia is why is

4048
02:08:45,958 --> 02:08:47,708
there so much less agreement about social

4049
02:08:47,708 --> 02:08:48,916
science and the human sciences than there

4050
02:08:48,916 --> 02:08:50,458
are about the physical sciences?

4051
02:08:50,458 --> 02:08:53,250
And in my mind, you know, basically, even

4052
02:08:53,250 --> 02:08:54,958
though we've known less about the

4053
02:08:54,958 --> 02:08:56,291
physical world and the social world for a

4054
02:08:56,291 --> 02:08:57,791
long time, we've made more

4055
02:08:57,791 --> 02:08:58,708
progress in the physical world.

4056
02:08:58,708 --> 02:09:00,666
And we come to stronger conclusions. We

4057
02:09:00,666 --> 02:09:02,625
can make more devices in the physical

4058
02:09:02,625 --> 02:09:03,791
world than in the social world. So

4059
02:09:03,791 --> 02:09:04,291
something's different there.

4060
02:09:04,708 --> 02:09:07,333
And my best explanation is, well, we we

4061
02:09:07,333 --> 02:09:08,916
care about the social world. We have

4062
02:09:08,916 --> 02:09:09,916
opinions about the social world.

4063
02:09:09,916 --> 02:09:12,500
So we are more, you know, that's more of

4064
02:09:12,500 --> 02:09:13,333
an obstacle to just

4065
02:09:13,333 --> 02:09:14,166
figure out what's true.

4066
02:09:14,166 --> 02:09:15,250
If we there's a bunch of things we want

4067
02:09:15,250 --> 02:09:16,750
to believe, nobody really cares about the

4068
02:09:16,750 --> 02:09:19,083
physical world, honestly, emotionally.

4069
02:09:19,083 --> 02:09:20,666
So they're willing to believe all sorts

4070
02:09:20,666 --> 02:09:22,041
of strange things because, hey, if that's

4071
02:09:22,041 --> 02:09:22,833
where the evidence goes,

4072
02:09:22,833 --> 02:09:25,375
that's where it goes. Right.

4073
02:09:25,375 --> 02:09:28,125
But in now, see, this is the physical

4074
02:09:28,125 --> 02:09:29,708
world getting more into the social world.

4075
02:09:30,916 --> 02:09:32,583
Once physicists speak up about things

4076
02:09:32,583 --> 02:09:34,083
that people have opinions about, say,

4077
02:09:34,083 --> 02:09:37,416
global warming or nuclear weapons risk or

4078
02:09:37,416 --> 02:09:39,041
things like that, they've had a lot less

4079
02:09:39,041 --> 02:09:42,000
success using their authority to get

4080
02:09:42,000 --> 02:09:43,958
people to believe what they say, because

4081
02:09:43,958 --> 02:09:45,750
now they're in this world where people

4082
02:09:45,750 --> 02:09:47,333
care about the opinions.

4083
02:09:47,333 --> 02:09:48,333
And that would be true

4084
02:09:48,333 --> 02:09:51,208
here for UAPs. Right.

4085
02:09:51,208 --> 02:09:52,916
They would now face they can't just, you

4086
02:09:52,916 --> 02:09:54,208
know, use the usual way.

4087
02:09:54,208 --> 02:09:56,000
The world is just random with respect to

4088
02:09:56,000 --> 02:09:56,791
their experiments. Now

4089
02:09:56,791 --> 02:09:57,875
this world is not random.

4090
02:09:58,125 --> 02:10:00,000
The world is, you know, being

4091
02:10:00,000 --> 02:10:02,291
adversarial, trying to

4092
02:10:02,291 --> 02:10:03,375
make it hard for them. Right.

4093
02:10:03,375 --> 02:10:06,458
I mean, basically, if these people say,

4094
02:10:06,458 --> 02:10:09,583
say they saw what sending various, you

4095
02:10:09,583 --> 02:10:11,833
know, probes at them like a

4096
02:10:11,833 --> 02:10:12,833
neutrino way or something.

4097
02:10:12,833 --> 02:10:14,250
We were sending. Yeah. Say we were trying

4098
02:10:14,250 --> 02:10:16,500
to probe the UAP to detect them. Right.

4099
02:10:16,500 --> 02:10:18,291
Well, they would probably see these

4100
02:10:18,291 --> 02:10:19,833
things and they would think, OK, how do

4101
02:10:19,833 --> 02:10:21,541
we change our things to

4102
02:10:21,541 --> 02:10:23,541
fool them if we want to. Right.

4103
02:10:23,541 --> 02:10:24,166
This would be an

4104
02:10:24,166 --> 02:10:24,916
adversarial relationship.

4105
02:10:25,708 --> 02:10:27,625
We would be trying to figure out what the

4106
02:10:27,625 --> 02:10:29,125
stuff is made out of and they would be

4107
02:10:29,125 --> 02:10:32,458
trying to hide that. And who wins?

4108
02:10:32,458 --> 02:10:35,166
There's a there's a it's very similar in

4109
02:10:35,166 --> 02:10:38,166
a sense, dog fighting and dog fight.

4110
02:10:38,166 --> 02:10:41,166
You want to try to force your opponent to

4111
02:10:41,166 --> 02:10:45,000
make decisions. Sloppily, quickly.

4112
02:10:45,000 --> 02:10:46,666
Ideally, there's going to be a reaction

4113
02:10:46,666 --> 02:10:48,083
period. So even if you're and if you're

4114
02:10:48,083 --> 02:10:49,708
defensive, if the person is behind you,

4115
02:10:49,708 --> 02:10:51,750
you can still move your jet.

4116
02:10:51,750 --> 02:10:52,458
You're still going to be

4117
02:10:52,458 --> 02:10:53,916
able to make the first move.

4118
02:10:54,583 --> 02:10:56,583
So if you make the first move, you see

4119
02:10:56,583 --> 02:10:58,875
them first. Yeah, I'm talking. Yeah. So

4120
02:10:58,875 --> 02:11:00,416
I'm getting on it. You're right.

4121
02:11:00,416 --> 02:11:01,750
I'm talking to you first. They make the

4122
02:11:01,750 --> 02:11:02,958
first. So let's say you're right here.

4123
02:11:02,958 --> 02:11:04,166
Right. You're the guy in the back.

4124
02:11:04,166 --> 02:11:05,875
Yeah. Like this. This guy has to react.

4125
02:11:05,875 --> 02:11:07,458
There's a reaction time. In a sense, it

4126
02:11:07,458 --> 02:11:08,583
almost sounds like there's a

4127
02:11:08,583 --> 02:11:10,041
technology reaction time here.

4128
02:11:10,041 --> 02:11:11,666
Because if we could quantify that time

4129
02:11:11,666 --> 02:11:12,583
period, that tells us something. Right.

4130
02:11:12,583 --> 02:11:14,291
It's just I'm identifying places where

4131
02:11:14,291 --> 02:11:17,291
there's potential for additional data

4132
02:11:17,291 --> 02:11:18,791
generation. And that potentially is one.

4133
02:11:19,500 --> 02:11:22,833
So when the Catholic Church was king of

4134
02:11:22,833 --> 02:11:27,291
the world, right, it had

4135
02:11:27,291 --> 02:11:29,541
important theological claims.

4136
02:11:29,541 --> 02:11:32,666
And there wasn't that much support for

4137
02:11:32,666 --> 02:11:35,750
people trying to challenge the church or

4138
02:11:35,750 --> 02:11:36,916
question its claims. Right.

4139
02:11:37,791 --> 02:11:41,750
So if the world comes to accept UAPs as

4140
02:11:41,750 --> 02:11:43,333
really existing and really being at the

4141
02:11:43,333 --> 02:11:45,041
top of a social hierarchy and really

4142
02:11:45,041 --> 02:11:46,791
being the sort of people, the things we

4143
02:11:46,791 --> 02:11:50,375
should emulate and follow, I think there

4144
02:11:50,375 --> 02:11:52,333
might not be that much support for

4145
02:11:52,333 --> 02:11:56,333
attempts to challenge them or

4146
02:11:56,333 --> 02:12:00,291
probe their claims or whatever.

4147
02:12:00,291 --> 02:12:01,916
Of the group that's—

4148
02:12:02,500 --> 02:12:05,875
So the question is like, how acceptable

4149
02:12:05,875 --> 02:12:10,208
is it to like test the gods, to probe the

4150
02:12:10,208 --> 02:12:13,166
gods, to look for their weaknesses? Is

4151
02:12:13,166 --> 02:12:15,458
that a popular thing?

4152
02:12:15,458 --> 02:12:17,125
Probably not amongst the gods.

4153
02:12:17,125 --> 02:12:18,875
But among the supporters of the gods, the

4154
02:12:18,875 --> 02:12:19,958
people who worship the gods.

4155
02:12:19,958 --> 02:12:22,750
OK. So you see that interpersonal

4156
02:12:22,750 --> 02:12:23,916
conflict based off support.

4157
02:12:24,333 --> 02:12:27,500
Like, this is like if we—our world now

4158
02:12:27,500 --> 02:12:29,291
sees humans as top and when we're in

4159
02:12:29,291 --> 02:12:30,666
charge and we should question everything.

4160
02:12:30,666 --> 02:12:32,250
But if we go back to more of an ancient

4161
02:12:32,250 --> 02:12:33,833
world situation where there's the gods

4162
02:12:33,833 --> 02:12:37,166
above us and they rule over us and we are

4163
02:12:37,166 --> 02:12:39,291
below them and we are trying to align

4164
02:12:39,291 --> 02:12:41,291
ourselves with them to and to support

4165
02:12:41,291 --> 02:12:45,166
them, how much support will there be for

4166
02:12:45,166 --> 02:12:47,958
efforts that could be seen as somewhat

4167
02:12:47,958 --> 02:12:49,708
hostile or questioning?

4168
02:12:50,583 --> 02:12:53,750
There might be a limited period in this

4169
02:12:53,750 --> 02:12:54,708
early years where that

4170
02:12:54,708 --> 02:12:58,125
becomes possible before it doesn't.

4171
02:12:58,125 --> 02:13:01,375
That shows you the size of the change you

4172
02:13:01,375 --> 02:13:03,333
might be looking at here.

4173
02:13:03,333 --> 02:13:03,916
Right?

4174
02:13:04,625 --> 02:13:06,958
It's intimidating to think about the

4175
02:13:06,958 --> 02:13:08,250
societal changes that could happen

4176
02:13:08,250 --> 02:13:10,166
because it's almost as scary as a

4177
02:13:10,166 --> 02:13:12,916
realization in itself. And I would say

4178
02:13:12,916 --> 02:13:15,458
even probably more so, more challenging

4179
02:13:15,458 --> 02:13:17,500
to have an open conversation, especially

4180
02:13:17,500 --> 02:13:18,333
around people that don't

4181
02:13:18,333 --> 02:13:20,375
want to engage in this topic.

4182
02:13:20,375 --> 02:13:22,125
I mean, all of my—so say there really

4183
02:13:22,125 --> 02:13:24,708
was a secret military organization behind

4184
02:13:24,708 --> 02:13:26,041
the scenes that held this evidence and

4185
02:13:26,041 --> 02:13:27,166
they asked themselves, "Should we tell

4186
02:13:27,166 --> 02:13:28,208
the world or should

4187
02:13:28,208 --> 02:13:28,916
we keep this a secret?"

4188
02:13:29,791 --> 02:13:31,458
I could have almost seen them bringing up

4189
02:13:31,458 --> 02:13:33,458
this argument. Well, you know what? When

4190
02:13:33,458 --> 02:13:34,583
people don't believe in this, they're

4191
02:13:34,583 --> 02:13:36,583
more ambitious and they go farther and

4192
02:13:36,583 --> 02:13:37,916
they challenge things.

4193
02:13:37,916 --> 02:13:40,666
But once everybody believes that these

4194
02:13:40,666 --> 02:13:43,208
alien gods are really around, they're

4195
02:13:43,208 --> 02:13:45,416
going to back off on that.

4196
02:13:45,416 --> 02:13:48,583
Like, one thing we know about the aliens

4197
02:13:48,583 --> 02:13:50,958
is they're much more stable than us,

4198
02:13:50,958 --> 02:13:53,125
right? They are not eagerly growing and

4199
02:13:53,125 --> 02:13:54,166
changing over long

4200
02:13:54,166 --> 02:13:54,791
periods of time, right?

4201
02:13:55,125 --> 02:13:57,041
They've been around for 100 million years

4202
02:13:57,041 --> 02:13:59,333
and they are restrained with respect to

4203
02:13:59,333 --> 02:14:00,708
their impact on nature, right? That's

4204
02:14:00,708 --> 02:14:01,791
another thing we know about them.

4205
02:14:01,791 --> 02:14:03,875
They did not go wild colonizing the

4206
02:14:03,875 --> 02:14:04,583
universe. They're kind

4207
02:14:04,583 --> 02:14:06,875
of eco-freaks, really.

4208
02:14:06,875 --> 02:14:08,625
And that would raise the status in our

4209
02:14:08,625 --> 02:14:11,875
world of also more restrained impact on

4210
02:14:11,875 --> 02:14:14,416
neighbor, less importance of growth and

4211
02:14:14,416 --> 02:14:18,833
change, and even less of a sense of we're

4212
02:14:18,833 --> 02:14:20,333
important and we're at the top of things,

4213
02:14:20,333 --> 02:14:22,250
more of an acceptance of

4214
02:14:22,250 --> 02:14:22,916
an order of the universe.

4215
02:14:23,708 --> 02:14:26,041
These would all be predictable

4216
02:14:26,041 --> 02:14:27,541
consequences, right, of coming to accept

4217
02:14:27,541 --> 02:14:30,250
this. And you can almost imagine those

4218
02:14:30,250 --> 02:14:32,791
people going, "Not yet.

4219
02:14:32,791 --> 02:14:34,750
Let's hold off on that."

4220
02:14:34,750 --> 02:14:35,666
Can't imagine that, yeah.

4221
02:14:35,666 --> 02:14:37,416
And I can see the argument now. I can

4222
02:14:37,416 --> 02:14:38,583
even think, "Well, should I be talking

4223
02:14:38,583 --> 02:14:39,750
about this now? Maybe

4224
02:14:39,750 --> 02:14:40,833
I'm making a mistake."

4225
02:14:40,833 --> 02:14:43,000
This is actually a thing I've thought

4226
02:14:43,000 --> 02:14:45,333
about many of the topics. I just

4227
02:14:45,333 --> 02:14:47,416
eagerly—I find something neglected and

4228
02:14:47,416 --> 02:14:49,291
I go, "Ooh, all right. Important thing

4229
02:14:49,291 --> 02:14:49,833
neglected. I'm going to

4230
02:14:49,833 --> 02:14:50,916
jump in and figure this out."

4231
02:14:51,583 --> 02:14:52,625
And then you have to answer the question,

4232
02:14:52,625 --> 02:14:54,291
"Now you're responsible for telling the

4233
02:14:54,291 --> 02:14:55,333
world about this thing."

4234
02:14:55,333 --> 02:14:57,041
And sure, it's good to have an overall

4235
02:14:57,041 --> 02:14:58,541
presumption that more knowledge is good,

4236
02:14:58,541 --> 02:15:01,166
but it's not always going to be true.

4237
02:15:01,166 --> 02:15:02,833
Some areas more knowledge might be bad

4238
02:15:02,833 --> 02:15:04,250
and might be one of your areas,

4239
02:15:04,250 --> 02:15:06,291
especially since other people chose not

4240
02:15:06,291 --> 02:15:07,583
to do this. Maybe you're

4241
02:15:07,583 --> 02:15:10,708
defying their judgment here.

4242
02:15:10,708 --> 02:15:12,208
Maybe it's not so good if we all know

4243
02:15:12,208 --> 02:15:14,041
about this. I've got to

4244
02:15:14,041 --> 02:15:15,708
admit, that could be true.

4245
02:15:16,375 --> 02:15:17,875
I think whether that's true or not—or

4246
02:15:17,875 --> 02:15:19,500
at least I feel like whether that's true

4247
02:15:19,500 --> 02:15:22,416
or not, objectively, subjectively, as

4248
02:15:22,416 --> 02:15:23,000
humans, we're going to

4249
02:15:23,000 --> 02:15:25,083
want to know regardless.

4250
02:15:25,083 --> 02:15:26,500
Except there's all sorts of stuff we

4251
02:15:26,500 --> 02:15:28,458
don't look at. So that's the subject of

4252
02:15:28,458 --> 02:15:29,250
my second book in the Albright.

4253
02:15:29,250 --> 02:15:30,916
There's a whole bunch of stuff humanity

4254
02:15:30,916 --> 02:15:32,291
has known for a long time that we refuse

4255
02:15:32,291 --> 02:15:34,000
to look at, that we

4256
02:15:34,000 --> 02:15:36,333
consistently look away from.

4257
02:15:36,333 --> 02:15:37,625
That's fair.

4258
02:15:37,625 --> 02:15:39,541
And that says maybe there's a lot of

4259
02:15:39,541 --> 02:15:40,000
things we don't want to know.

4260
02:15:40,000 --> 02:15:42,541
I'm thinking maybe more about myself than

4261
02:15:42,541 --> 02:15:43,166
humanity in general. I

4262
02:15:43,166 --> 02:15:43,916
mean, I wouldn't need to know.

4263
02:15:44,250 --> 02:15:45,541
But you're right. There are a lot of

4264
02:15:45,541 --> 02:15:46,541
things that we just

4265
02:15:46,541 --> 02:15:48,583
simply close our eyes to.

4266
02:15:48,583 --> 02:15:50,208
Violence, there's plenty of horror in the

4267
02:15:50,208 --> 02:15:52,541
world. Just to make an obvious example. I

4268
02:15:52,541 --> 02:15:54,333
know your book has many others.

4269
02:15:54,333 --> 02:15:58,708
But yeah, it's definitely on the table.

4270
02:15:58,708 --> 02:16:00,375
Some of us are just

4271
02:16:00,375 --> 02:16:03,166
knee-jerkers, we've got to know, right?

4272
02:16:03,166 --> 02:16:06,208
And the world maybe doesn't always win

4273
02:16:06,208 --> 02:16:07,208
when people have got to

4274
02:16:07,208 --> 02:16:07,916
know or figure it out.

4275
02:16:08,291 --> 02:16:10,500
But hopefully on average it does. But I

4276
02:16:10,500 --> 02:16:11,916
just can't be very sure in this case it's

4277
02:16:11,916 --> 02:16:14,375
so great that we're all going to find out

4278
02:16:14,375 --> 02:16:16,916
we're the king's brother, not the king.

4279
02:16:16,916 --> 02:16:18,958
And we've got to have limited ambitions

4280
02:16:18,958 --> 02:16:21,625
here if we don't want to get squashed.

4281
02:16:21,625 --> 02:16:23,791
Not a pleasant story.

4282
02:16:26,541 --> 02:16:30,541
Every time you say the limit are not a

4283
02:16:30,541 --> 02:16:32,083
potential, but ambition. Ambition, I

4284
02:16:32,083 --> 02:16:34,458
always like, I want to attack that

4285
02:16:34,458 --> 02:16:36,416
somehow. But the only attack I

4286
02:16:36,416 --> 02:16:39,166
can think of is one of scale.

4287
02:16:39,166 --> 02:16:41,333
And a reassessment that perhaps the

4288
02:16:41,333 --> 02:16:44,250
ambitions that are so far, that are so

4289
02:16:44,250 --> 02:16:45,541
big that we would be limited from are

4290
02:16:45,541 --> 02:16:47,958
still so, they pale in our understanding

4291
02:16:47,958 --> 02:16:48,916
of what that could be.

4292
02:16:50,458 --> 02:16:53,041
Here's an example. We're talking about

4293
02:16:53,041 --> 02:16:54,583
expansion into space-time as if that's

4294
02:16:54,583 --> 02:16:55,750
the only potential way that

4295
02:16:55,750 --> 02:16:58,291
we could grow as a society.

4296
02:16:58,291 --> 02:17:00,708
What about the thought of expanding

4297
02:17:00,708 --> 02:17:02,583
intellectually through virtual reality

4298
02:17:02,583 --> 02:17:04,833
and things of that nature?

4299
02:17:04,833 --> 02:17:06,916
Or artificial intelligence, to say.

4300
02:17:07,791 --> 02:17:11,041
So the question they have to have asked

4301
02:17:11,041 --> 02:17:12,750
is if there's some kinds of progress we

4302
02:17:12,750 --> 02:17:14,583
could do on our computers down here they

4303
02:17:14,583 --> 02:17:17,250
can't see very easily, could that

4304
02:17:17,250 --> 02:17:19,625
threaten to greatly increase our ability

4305
02:17:19,625 --> 02:17:21,875
to violate their expansion rule?

4306
02:17:21,875 --> 02:17:23,750
Is there a connection there? Then they'd

4307
02:17:23,750 --> 02:17:24,916
have to be afraid, right?

4308
02:17:26,000 --> 02:17:27,708
Say we could have AIs that would figure

4309
02:17:27,708 --> 02:17:30,041
out how to make a cheap Starship that's

4310
02:17:30,041 --> 02:17:34,083
small and dark, and then we make it and

4311
02:17:34,083 --> 02:17:36,166
slip it away. And they never see anything

4312
02:17:36,166 --> 02:17:38,083
because it was all on AI

4313
02:17:38,083 --> 02:17:39,541
simulations they could never see.

4314
02:17:39,541 --> 02:17:41,583
Now they've got to worry. Once they see

4315
02:17:41,583 --> 02:17:43,000
us having a bunch of computers doing

4316
02:17:43,000 --> 02:17:45,958
stuff they can't see, well, maybe then we

4317
02:17:45,958 --> 02:17:47,333
could do this thing to slip away and

4318
02:17:47,333 --> 02:17:48,916
they've got to draw the line there.

4319
02:17:49,916 --> 02:17:51,750
But if they're not drawing the line there

4320
02:17:51,750 --> 02:17:52,916
they have to be pretty confident. You

4321
02:17:52,916 --> 02:17:54,791
know what? Do as much stuff as you want

4322
02:17:54,791 --> 02:17:56,625
on the computers. We don't care. We know

4323
02:17:56,625 --> 02:17:58,041
that that doesn't help you make a

4324
02:17:58,041 --> 02:17:58,625
Starship until you

4325
02:17:58,625 --> 02:18:00,958
actually start to make a Starship.

4326
02:18:00,958 --> 02:18:02,125
And that would be an interesting thing

4327
02:18:02,125 --> 02:18:04,708
they know about us, right? That there's

4328
02:18:04,708 --> 02:18:07,666
only so far AI can take us just doing

4329
02:18:07,666 --> 02:18:09,500
stuff on the computers we'll have to

4330
02:18:09,500 --> 02:18:10,166
build real stuff and

4331
02:18:10,166 --> 02:18:10,916
they could watch for that.

4332
02:18:11,666 --> 02:18:13,958
I wonder if you could use that as a

4333
02:18:13,958 --> 02:18:16,791
litmus test for the scope

4334
02:18:16,791 --> 02:18:19,583
of potential technology.

4335
02:18:19,583 --> 02:18:21,500
So we'd be trying to develop the kinds of

4336
02:18:21,500 --> 02:18:23,541
tech that they can't see so that we could

4337
02:18:23,541 --> 02:18:25,375
jump ahead farther than they see, right?

4338
02:18:25,375 --> 02:18:27,541
If we're trying to fool them

4339
02:18:27,541 --> 02:18:30,250
into finding a way to slip away.

4340
02:18:30,250 --> 02:18:32,083
How would we do that? Would we do that

4341
02:18:32,083 --> 02:18:35,916
by, you know, look over here but not over

4342
02:18:35,916 --> 02:18:38,000
there? Or is there a way

4343
02:18:38,000 --> 02:18:38,916
to really do that reliably?

4344
02:18:39,125 --> 02:18:42,208
I mean, one thing is with AI, we should

4345
02:18:42,208 --> 02:18:43,833
have, and what I call brain emulation,

4346
02:18:43,833 --> 02:18:45,416
which is subject to my first book, we

4347
02:18:45,416 --> 02:18:47,000
should eventually be able to make

4348
02:18:47,000 --> 02:18:49,000
computers that have human level

4349
02:18:49,000 --> 02:18:51,041
intelligence in them that if you sent off

4350
02:18:51,041 --> 02:18:53,333
a Starship with just those computers then

4351
02:18:53,333 --> 02:18:54,458
that would have us

4352
02:18:54,458 --> 02:18:56,166
basically and do stuff.

4353
02:18:56,166 --> 02:18:58,000
So then they have to know that as soon as

4354
02:18:58,000 --> 02:18:59,666
we have that ability we can send a much

4355
02:18:59,666 --> 02:19:01,625
smaller Starship that works, right? It

4356
02:19:01,625 --> 02:19:02,791
doesn't have to have a whole human and

4357
02:19:02,791 --> 02:19:04,541
all their biological stuff. It can just

4358
02:19:04,541 --> 02:19:05,041
have a computer on it.

4359
02:19:05,666 --> 02:19:07,583
So that means they have to be looking for

4360
02:19:07,583 --> 02:19:09,000
smaller Starships when

4361
02:19:09,000 --> 02:19:12,125
they're watching out for them.

4362
02:19:12,125 --> 02:19:14,666
But I guess they'd either have to be

4363
02:19:14,666 --> 02:19:16,000
watching carefully to see when we cross

4364
02:19:16,000 --> 02:19:18,583
that boundary of being able to make those

4365
02:19:18,583 --> 02:19:20,500
things or they'd have to realize they can

4366
02:19:20,500 --> 02:19:22,375
already detect even smaller Starships so

4367
02:19:22,375 --> 02:19:23,916
they're not very worried.

4368
02:19:23,916 --> 02:19:26,333
But I mean, honestly, like a Starship

4369
02:19:26,333 --> 02:19:27,666
would initially just be a rock that

4370
02:19:27,666 --> 02:19:29,000
drifted away and it could drift away

4371
02:19:29,000 --> 02:19:31,583
pretty slowly for 10,000 years before it

4372
02:19:31,583 --> 02:19:33,916
like speeds up and slips away, right?

4373
02:19:34,291 --> 02:19:36,250
So could they really see every

4374
02:19:36,250 --> 02:19:38,166
kilogram-sized rock in the solar system

4375
02:19:38,166 --> 02:19:39,625
that could escape the solar system?

4376
02:19:39,625 --> 02:19:40,750
And that seems like a

4377
02:19:40,750 --> 02:19:43,458
crazy, enormous monitoring.

4378
02:19:43,458 --> 02:19:46,375
Especially if you multiply that by all

4379
02:19:46,375 --> 02:19:47,250
the potential

4380
02:19:47,250 --> 02:19:49,000
civilizations that could be monitoring.

4381
02:19:49,000 --> 02:19:50,958
Right, but just the ability to do the

4382
02:19:50,958 --> 02:19:53,625
UIPs around us here is much less than

4383
02:19:53,625 --> 02:19:55,500
this ability to watch every

4384
02:19:55,500 --> 02:19:57,000
rock that could slip away.

4385
02:19:57,000 --> 02:19:58,708
That would seem to be an enormous

4386
02:19:58,708 --> 02:20:00,083
capacity they have to fill. So you'd

4387
02:20:00,083 --> 02:20:01,166
think, you know, maybe

4388
02:20:01,166 --> 02:20:01,916
they'd draw the line before that.

4389
02:20:02,625 --> 02:20:04,666
It's just one of those capabilities that

4390
02:20:04,666 --> 02:20:06,291
would, in my mind, lower the probability

4391
02:20:06,291 --> 02:20:07,541
of it being successful.

4392
02:20:07,541 --> 02:20:12,166
So if you are taking such a, you know,

4393
02:20:12,166 --> 02:20:13,458
one-off chance to say, hey, we have to

4394
02:20:13,458 --> 02:20:15,083
stop every possible rock that gets out of

4395
02:20:15,083 --> 02:20:16,666
here, you know, again, if you multiply

4396
02:20:16,666 --> 02:20:18,000
that across all the potential

4397
02:20:18,000 --> 02:20:19,125
civilizations, your probability of

4398
02:20:19,125 --> 02:20:20,000
success, I think, would be pretty small.

4399
02:20:20,000 --> 02:20:22,000
Well, remember, the most probable

4400
02:20:22,000 --> 02:20:23,250
scenario here, there's just us. There's

4401
02:20:23,250 --> 02:20:25,166
no other civilizations. There's just this

4402
02:20:25,166 --> 02:20:26,333
one other civilization.

4403
02:20:26,333 --> 02:20:26,916
Yeah, no problem.

4404
02:20:27,000 --> 02:20:28,166
There are pansy

4405
02:20:28,166 --> 02:20:29,666
siblings, and then there's just us, and

4406
02:20:29,666 --> 02:20:32,041
that's it. So we're the only one risking

4407
02:20:32,041 --> 02:20:33,291
breaking the rule so they can devote a

4408
02:20:33,291 --> 02:20:35,541
pretty large resources to us. But the

4409
02:20:35,541 --> 02:20:37,708
question is like, why should they wait

4410
02:20:37,708 --> 02:20:38,416
till we're much bigger

4411
02:20:38,416 --> 02:20:39,250
where it's more expensive?

4412
02:20:39,250 --> 02:20:40,833
Why not cut us off earlier if they're

4413
02:20:40,833 --> 02:20:42,625
going to cut us off? So, I mean, they

4414
02:20:42,625 --> 02:20:45,791
must be hoping, you see, that we decide

4415
02:20:45,791 --> 02:20:48,166
to become the civilization wide,

4416
02:20:48,166 --> 02:20:49,833
peaceful, eco-civilization

4417
02:20:49,833 --> 02:20:50,875
that doesn't want to expand.

4418
02:20:51,750 --> 02:20:54,125
And that'll happen soon, and then they

4419
02:20:54,125 --> 02:20:55,833
can, they don't have to shut us down

4420
02:20:55,833 --> 02:20:59,000
because we will do what they want without

4421
02:20:59,000 --> 02:21:00,541
us having them having to push for it,

4422
02:21:00,541 --> 02:21:02,333
right? So that seems to me like they must

4423
02:21:02,333 --> 02:21:04,166
have a belief about when that typically

4424
02:21:04,166 --> 02:21:06,416
happens in a civilization's evolution,

4425
02:21:06,416 --> 02:21:07,791
when it happened to them, say, and

4426
02:21:07,791 --> 02:21:10,083
they're wanting to wait until that either

4427
02:21:10,083 --> 02:21:10,916
happens or it doesn't.

4428
02:21:11,500 --> 02:21:13,125
After that point, if it doesn't happen,

4429
02:21:13,125 --> 02:21:14,333
then they got to step in and do

4430
02:21:14,333 --> 02:21:16,500
something. But they want to give us the

4431
02:21:16,500 --> 02:21:18,875
chance to do it first and actually at the

4432
02:21:18,875 --> 02:21:22,166
moment, we are at that tipping point. So,

4433
02:21:22,166 --> 02:21:25,125
I mean, it's important to notice, say a

4434
02:21:25,125 --> 02:21:27,541
century ago, most nations, the elites of

4435
02:21:27,541 --> 02:21:29,208
that nation were mainly identifying with

4436
02:21:29,208 --> 02:21:31,250
that nation, and they were thinking, how

4437
02:21:31,250 --> 02:21:31,916
can we promote our nation?

4438
02:21:32,500 --> 02:21:34,333
And today, elites in the world are mainly

4439
02:21:34,333 --> 02:21:35,625
identifying with the other elites of

4440
02:21:35,625 --> 02:21:38,083
their type in the world. And that's why

4441
02:21:38,083 --> 02:21:39,750
there's so much convergent regulation

4442
02:21:39,750 --> 02:21:41,958
around the world in nuclear energy and

4443
02:21:41,958 --> 02:21:44,208
medical ethics and all sorts of things,

4444
02:21:44,208 --> 02:21:46,541
which is why, and it's part of how our

4445
02:21:46,541 --> 02:21:49,000
civilization is no longer competing

4446
02:21:49,000 --> 02:21:49,916
fiercely internally.

4447
02:21:50,416 --> 02:21:52,166
We don't have as much national

4448
02:21:52,166 --> 02:21:55,291
competition. And we are halfway there to

4449
02:21:55,291 --> 02:21:57,125
this world where we all decide things

4450
02:21:57,125 --> 02:21:58,750
together. And we like that. And maybe we

4451
02:21:58,750 --> 02:22:00,291
don't want to end that by allowing

4452
02:22:00,291 --> 02:22:01,583
interstellar colonization.

4453
02:22:01,583 --> 02:22:02,666
So that would be the story.

4454
02:22:02,666 --> 02:22:04,000
Like a few centuries from now, we'll say

4455
02:22:04,000 --> 02:22:05,833
this long history of we solved global

4456
02:22:05,833 --> 02:22:07,458
warming, we solved inequality, we solved

4457
02:22:07,458 --> 02:22:09,000
overfishing. Look at all these things we

4458
02:22:09,000 --> 02:22:10,916
did by getting together and talking about

4459
02:22:10,916 --> 02:22:12,541
it together and having our elites agree

4460
02:22:12,541 --> 02:22:13,916
and just do it everywhere in the world.

4461
02:22:14,500 --> 02:22:16,541
And then at that moment, the chance of

4462
02:22:16,541 --> 02:22:18,208
sending off in a interstellar colony will

4463
02:22:18,208 --> 02:22:20,958
mean that ends forever. And the question

4464
02:22:20,958 --> 02:22:24,083
is, will we allow that to be sent off? Or

4465
02:22:24,083 --> 02:22:26,500
will we try to impose a regime forever

4466
02:22:26,500 --> 02:22:28,583
more of not allowing that, which is very

4467
02:22:28,583 --> 02:22:30,000
expensive and hard, but that would be the

4468
02:22:30,000 --> 02:22:31,125
cost of having this

4469
02:22:31,125 --> 02:22:31,916
integrated world community.

4470
02:22:32,333 --> 02:22:33,833
And I think a lot of people really like

4471
02:22:33,833 --> 02:22:37,041
that. That is, we aren't fighting each

4472
02:22:37,041 --> 02:22:39,000
other and competing and then evolving

4473
02:22:39,000 --> 02:22:40,583
into strangeness. We are going to stay

4474
02:22:40,583 --> 02:22:41,791
human. We're going to stay a community in

4475
02:22:41,791 --> 02:22:43,208
the world. When we have a big issue,

4476
02:22:43,208 --> 02:22:44,666
we'll all talk together, we'll decide

4477
02:22:44,666 --> 02:22:45,750
together, and then we'll do that thing.

4478
02:22:45,750 --> 02:22:47,625
And that will be humanity.

4479
02:22:47,625 --> 02:22:49,000
A lot of people, I think that's just a

4480
02:22:49,000 --> 02:22:50,583
very attractive vision.

4481
02:22:50,583 --> 02:22:53,000
Star Trek vs. Star Wars, if you will.

4482
02:22:53,000 --> 02:22:55,500
Yes, right. Star Trek is more. The world

4483
02:22:55,500 --> 02:22:57,541
community agreed together

4484
02:22:57,541 --> 02:22:59,875
and enforced its agreements.

4485
02:23:00,458 --> 02:23:01,666
Where do you think we're heading?

4486
02:23:02,500 --> 02:23:04,125
Well, you can just see a lot of emotional

4487
02:23:04,125 --> 02:23:06,333
energy in that direction. That is because

4488
02:23:06,333 --> 02:23:09,041
we're halfway there. Think of COVID. In

4489
02:23:09,041 --> 02:23:12,541
COVID, within a month or two, the usual

4490
02:23:12,541 --> 02:23:14,916
medical experts' advice was thrown out.

4491
02:23:14,916 --> 02:23:16,625
Elites around the whole world had a whole

4492
02:23:16,625 --> 02:23:18,875
new opinion about masks and travel

4493
02:23:18,875 --> 02:23:20,000
restrictions. And the

4494
02:23:20,000 --> 02:23:21,541
whole world did it together.

4495
02:23:22,750 --> 02:23:26,291
And basically nobody even did a challenge

4496
02:23:26,291 --> 02:23:28,500
trial, which would be violating the usual

4497
02:23:28,500 --> 02:23:30,083
medical ethics rules. And nobody in the

4498
02:23:30,083 --> 02:23:32,833
world allowed 100 people to just get

4499
02:23:32,833 --> 02:23:36,125
infected and see what happened.

4500
02:23:36,125 --> 02:23:38,666
That shows you how much we're already

4501
02:23:38,666 --> 02:23:40,916
halfway to a world government.

4502
02:23:41,250 --> 02:23:44,166
And people like that. At the moment, Iran

4503
02:23:44,166 --> 02:23:45,500
is the only country in the world that

4504
02:23:45,500 --> 02:23:47,916
allows organ sales of any sort. And it's

4505
02:23:47,916 --> 02:23:50,041
very much government managed, but medical

4506
02:23:50,041 --> 02:23:51,291
ethics conferences all the time, they're

4507
02:23:51,291 --> 02:23:51,916
talking about how they're

4508
02:23:51,916 --> 02:23:53,500
going to make Iran stop.

4509
02:23:53,500 --> 02:23:54,958
Being this deviation who's doing it

4510
02:23:54,958 --> 02:23:57,916
different. Because the whole idea is any

4511
02:23:57,916 --> 02:23:59,541
one country deviates from the world

4512
02:23:59,541 --> 02:24:01,083
consensus, and that's just a crisis that

4513
02:24:01,083 --> 02:24:01,916
needs to be addressed.

4514
02:24:02,583 --> 02:24:04,541
It's like in COVID, the biggest deviant

4515
02:24:04,541 --> 02:24:07,458
was maybe Sweden. And they were really

4516
02:24:07,458 --> 02:24:08,666
dumped on by the rest of the world. And

4517
02:24:08,666 --> 02:24:10,916
it turns out they did pretty well. That's

4518
02:24:10,916 --> 02:24:12,875
not talked about so much.

4519
02:24:12,875 --> 02:24:14,875
Because people really hated the idea that

4520
02:24:14,875 --> 02:24:16,166
anybody would deviate from

4521
02:24:16,166 --> 02:24:19,458
the consensus on what to do.

4522
02:24:19,458 --> 02:24:21,375
And that's where we are now. And you can

4523
02:24:21,375 --> 02:24:24,750
see that sort of an attitude. Once you

4524
02:24:24,750 --> 02:24:26,583
reach, say, several centuries of more of

4525
02:24:26,583 --> 02:24:29,208
that, and we succeed in many ways of

4526
02:24:29,208 --> 02:24:29,916
solving many problems that way.

4527
02:24:30,166 --> 02:24:33,291
And then the question is, should we allow

4528
02:24:33,291 --> 02:24:37,125
a colony to leave? After which point are

4529
02:24:37,125 --> 02:24:39,833
civilizations fragmented? It fights, and

4530
02:24:39,833 --> 02:24:40,625
it evolves into

4531
02:24:40,625 --> 02:24:42,916
strangeness. Do we want to allow that?

4532
02:24:42,916 --> 02:24:46,458
And you can imagine them saying no. But

4533
02:24:46,458 --> 02:24:48,000
the consequence of that is you don't

4534
02:24:48,000 --> 02:24:50,541
expand. And then you never become the

4535
02:24:50,541 --> 02:24:53,208
big, grabby civilization that goes off to

4536
02:24:53,208 --> 02:24:54,333
fill a million galaxies

4537
02:24:54,333 --> 02:24:55,708
with whatever you want.

4538
02:24:56,375 --> 02:24:58,708
But you stay a unified civilization. And

4539
02:24:58,708 --> 02:25:01,500
that's plausibly what, say, the UFO

4540
02:25:01,500 --> 02:25:04,125
aliens chose. That would be the theory

4541
02:25:04,125 --> 02:25:05,250
why they're here now, but the

4542
02:25:05,250 --> 02:25:07,291
universe around us is empty.

4543
02:25:07,291 --> 02:25:10,166
That's fascinating. Well, thank you for

4544
02:25:10,166 --> 02:25:12,916
fighting the consensus with me on this.

4545
02:25:14,000 --> 02:25:16,500
Well, I feel like I may have opinions,

4546
02:25:16,500 --> 02:25:17,750
but the most important thing about this

4547
02:25:17,750 --> 02:25:20,000
is just to get the basic conversation

4548
02:25:20,000 --> 02:25:21,625
going and getting people to see the

4549
02:25:21,625 --> 02:25:24,291
choices. I don't think my opinion should

4550
02:25:24,291 --> 02:25:26,333
influence where civilization goes, but I

4551
02:25:26,333 --> 02:25:28,458
want us to see our choices.

4552
02:25:28,458 --> 02:25:30,208
Exactly. We can't be blind to this, and

4553
02:25:30,208 --> 02:25:32,083
that's what we've been. So by having this

4554
02:25:32,083 --> 02:25:33,583
podcast, bringing folks on like yourself

4555
02:25:33,583 --> 02:25:34,875
that are willing to go out there and have

4556
02:25:34,875 --> 02:25:36,541
those conversations and think about it

4557
02:25:36,541 --> 02:25:38,791
logically, I think for me, that's one of

4558
02:25:38,791 --> 02:25:40,750
the avenues I've chosen to help move this

4559
02:25:40,750 --> 02:25:41,916
conversation forward. So thank you.